Tag Archives: polls

Obama +6 in Pennsylvania, Still Below 50% — Philadelphia Inquirer

October 27, 2012 – 8:52 am

President Obama holds a solid lead over Mitt Romney 49 to 43 with 7% Undecided in the latest Inquirer Pennsylvania poll.  Despite the lead it is curious that President Obama can’t crack 50% in the survey evidencing all lot of weakness underneath that top-line lead.  In  an infographic provided by the paper, tells why it is such an uphill battle for Romney.  In a 5-county subset Obama is viewed favorably 65 to 32 while Mitt Romney’s favorables are under-water at 38 to 58.  And in that 5-county area President Obama leads 58 to 35. Obama also leads with Independents 56 to 35. These are all tough margins to swallow for the Romney crowd although questions on the size of this subset are warranted. Results of the Inquirer Pennsylvania Poll are based on live telephone interviews with 600 likely voters, conducted from Oct. 23 through Oct. 25, and subject to a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.  If they only polled 600 statewide, that doesn’t leave a lot of “local” voters to carve out and have a representative sample so take today’s results as just one of many snapshots in time. Tomorrow could be very different.  The paper also acknowledges “the poll gives Obama a wider margin than some other Pennsylvania surveys. The website RealClearPolitics puts Obama’s average lead in recent polls here at 4.8 percent.” I would be very curious how this poll was run because the Inquirer says it used a “team of pollsters” which begs all sorts of questions on methodology.

President Obama holds a six-point lead over Mitt Romney in a new Inquirer Pennsylvania Poll with just over nine full days of campaigning left for the Republican nominee to make a play for the state. Obama was the choice of 49 percent of likely voters, to 43 percent who backed Romney in the survey conducted for the newspaper by a bipartisan team of pollsters. The new numbers came out as one Republican group made a television ad buy on Friday that might signal a last-minute Romney push in Pennsylvania. The poll’s margin represents a net swing of two percentage points in Romney’s favor since the last Inquirer survey, which found the president ahead 50 percent to 42 percent in the first week of October.

On Friday, one Republican group signaled it might launch an ad blitz in an effort to push Pennsylvania into Romney’s column. The group Americans for Job Security reserved at least $454,150 worth of airtime on Philadelphia broadcast stations and more than $200,000 worth of time on cable channels in the market, according to Federal Communications Commission reports and political sources that track ad spending. That time could be used for spots aimed at attacking Obama or boosting Romney. Americans for Job Security had mostly supported GOP congressional candidates around the country, until it threw itself into the presidential race in late September with an initial swing-state buy of $8.7 million.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 49
Mitt Romney 43
Other -
Undecided 7
By keithbacker | Posted in Pennsylvania | Also tagged , | Comments (23)

Thoughts on Yesterday’s CNN/ORC International Poll With Obama Leading by 4 in Ohio

October 27, 2012 – 7:29 am

A spate of polls came out yesterday that I left alone for various reasons but the CNN/ORC International poll with Obama leading by 4-points created special consternation among Romney supporters and readers of this blog.  The reasons behind the concern were party ID and the Independent vote.

The party ID was not outrageous. The split was D +3 (Dem 35, Rep 32, Ind 33) when we are usually dealing with Ohio polls at D +8, D +7 and even D +10. As a matter of fact at the same time as the CNN release, American Research Group released an Ohio poll showing Obama leading by 2-points with a party ID split of D +9. In 2008 Ohio turnout was reported as D +8 although this has been disproven in favor of the real split of D +5. The 2004 party ID was R +5 so the fact that this poll ends up somewhere in the middle says we’re at least in an acceptable range. The other factor causing concern among the pro-Romney factions was that Obama was leading in this poll among Independents by 5-points, 49 to 44.  On those two factors alone this should have been a great poll for team Obama since anomalies in those two areas are the most cited reasons to dismiss the regularly erroneous polls we have seen this cycle.

I tried to contact CNN (OK, I tweeted their political director) for the racial make-up of the poll since they conveniently failed to include that in the cross-tabs and this is another prime area for abuse by the polling outfits.  But alas, my tweet went unanswered. Thankfully incredible readers in my comment sections went to great lengths identifying many other credible sources debunking multiple oddities in this ostensibly credible poll.

I’ll state up-front, this poll does not concern me in the slightest over Romney’s prospects in the state. I try to be as objective as possible when running the numbers and my opinions on who is winning are whatever the #s tell me they should be and Ohio is actually looking pretty decent for Romney.  Yes, I said Ohio is looking pretty decent for Romney.

Independents

Thanks to Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher), we know that in the seventeen most recent polls in Ohio, only three have Obama leading with Independents and two of those are these same CNN/ORC polls. In the fourteen other polls, Romney’s lead with independents is +11.4. CNN/ORC looks to be the outlier, not the norm by any means.  In that same ARG poll cited above Romney actually had a 21-point lead among Independents. This essentially means Obama is not leading with Independents despite whatever the outlier CNN/ORC says.  When Ohio’s ballots are counted, each side will lock down their base and the differential in partisan turnout will be minimal. Whoever wins Independents will win Ohio. Obama carried Independents in Ohio by 8 percentage points in 2008 and today he is losing Independents by 10+ points.  This is an 18-point swing among the voting group who will decide the state.

Early voting

Early voting is over-represented in the CNN poll. According to @Adrian_Gray in the poll 2/5 of Ohio likely voters have already cast their ballot. County election offices say only 1/5 have voted. Both cannot be right. Extrapolating the CNN poll statewide, Obama leads 59-38 among the 1.4 million that voted early. Romney leads 51-44 among 4.4 million have yet to vote. The math is pretty straightforward where the overwhelming remaining voters support Romney and should overwhelm any early vote advantage CNN found.

2012 is not 2008

Obama’s 2008 early voting secret weapon is gone. He won Ohio in 2008 due to an overwhelming early vote advantage.  On election day more votes were cast for John McCain than Barack Obama but so many votes banked away for Obama that it wasn’t enough. Today, according to the same Adrian Gray: “220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008″

Undecideds break for the challenger

On average Obama’s support level is always stuck around 47% in the Battleground states.  His current Real Clear Politics average in Ohio thanks in no small party to this CNN poll and the ARG poll stands at 48%.  We have shown across multiple elections against an incumbent President Undecideds break between 66-80% for the challenger. This means there is not a lot of votes left for Obama beyond his base and already accounted for Independents.

Between the reversal of the Independent voting block, the neutralizing of Obama’s early vote advantage and Undecideds always breaking 66-80% for the challenger Obama is looking really bad in Ohio.  And everyone today admits whomever wins Ohio wins the election.  To those who are unnecessarily concerned. rest easy.  Things are looking far better for Romney than is being represented.  The networks need ratings and horse-races increase ratings.  Four years ago at this time the race was over yet you could still see stories about McCain’s momentum.  It was just to keep people tuned in because that’s what pays the bills.  They did the same thing for Dukakis and Dole down the stretch when those races were blow-outs.

This race is far from over and 11 days is an eternity in politics, but every sign says Romney has the initiative and Obama is only responding to whatever Romney does. Obama’s fire-wall keeps getting moved back while Romney keeps pressing forward.  You can’t call a race until the last ballot is cast but I’m fairly optimistic on Romney’s prospects in Ohio at this point.  And I’m a pessimist by nature.

By keithbacker | Posted in Ohio | Also tagged , , , , , , | Comments (35)

Dead Heat in Wisconsin, 49 to 49 — Rasmussen

October 26, 2012 – 12:29 pm

The latest from Rasmussen Reports shows Wisconsin all tied up at 49 and Romney is heading there Monday:

President Obama and Mitt Romney are now tied in the critical battleground state of Wisconsin. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters shows the president and his Republican challenger each earning 49% support. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.   This race remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Obama carried Wisconsin by a 56% to 42% margin in 2008.

In Election 2000, Florida was the decisive state in the Electoral College. In 2004, Ohio was the ultimate battleground state that put George W. Bush over the top. Scott Rasmussen suggests in his latest weekly newspaper column that Wisconsin May Be the New Ohio this year. A week ago, the president held a slight 50% to 48% lead. Earlier in the month, he was ahead 51% to 49%. In surveys in Wisconsin since October of last year, the president has earned 44% to 52% of the vote, while Romney’s support has ranged from 41% to 49%. Ninety-six percent (96%) of Badger State voters say they are sure to vote in this election. Romney leads 51% to 47% among these voters.

Among the 90% who say they’ve already made up their minds whom they will vote for, it’s Romney 51%, Obama 48%. Romney has a six-point lead over Obama – 50% to 44% – among all voters in the state when they are asked which candidate they trust more to handle the economy. When it comes to national security, the candidates are almost tied: 48% trust Obama more, while 47% have more faith in Romney. This shows no change from a week ago and is comparable to voter attitudes nationally.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 49
Mitt Romney 49
Other 1
Undecided 2
By keithbacker | Posted in Wisconsin | Also tagged | Comments (25)

Obama +1 in Nevada, Trails by 35 Among Independents — Gravis Marketing

October 26, 2012 – 11:29 am

Gravis Marketing has another poll where President Obama leads marginally 50 to 49 in Nevada but is getting slaughtered with Independents.  I don’t know what to say about this poll. It’s all over the place.

Independents

In 2008 Obama won Nevada Independents by 13-points and carried the state by 12-points. In the Gravis poll we have a 48-point swing towards Romney among Independents and this poll is trying to argue Obama would have to win among the pure partisan Democrats and Republicans by 14-points under the 2008 level of Independents?  I’m so incredulous I can’t even come up with an absurd enough Kate Upton scenario to reflect the ridiculousness of this poll.  It does raise the specter of one important factor in the Nevada election. If Mitt Romney is leading with Independents by sizable margins (not even counting this wacky 35-point lead), then that Clark County Democrat advantage is greatly mitigated by both the increase in the Independent vote we are seeing as well as the dramatic swing in Independent support to Romney from Obama.

Party ID

Party ID is D +9 (Dem 45, Rep 36, Ind 19) versus 2008 of D +8 (Dem 38, Rep 30, Ind 26) and 2004 of R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26). A greater party turnout advantage than 2008 when McCain conceded the state and Obama was campaigning unopposed down the stretch?  Not happening.  Look at the Independent total: 19%?  It’s probably the largest growing segment in Nevada after two straight elections where it was 26%.

Racial Demographics

Nevada is a diverse state but not nearly the make-up Gravis is using in this poll.

  • In 2008 the racial make-up of the Nevada vote was: White 69%, Hispanics 15%, Blacks 10%
  • In the Gravis poll the racial make-up is: White 63%, Hispanics 20%, Blacks 13%

Maybe this will fly in David Axelrod’s delusional demographic make-ups but not in the 2012 actual turnout. The 6pp drop in White vote and 5pp increase in Hispanic vote simply isn’t happening.  In the most generous reasonable scenario Hispanic turnout MAY reach 18%.  I highly doubt that based on the steep drop-off in enthusiasm among this voting bloc, but it’s at least I the discussion.  I have seen n one other than Gravis Marketing and SurveyUSA making up steep drops in the White vote for this election.  As I have shown many times the White turnout in 2008 nationally was artificially low based on nearly 2 million White voters staying home.  This year they are both motivated and enthusiastic so drop-offs like that are leftist fantasy turnouts.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 50
Mitt Romney 49
Undecided 2
By keithbacker | Posted in Nevada | Also tagged | Comments (38)

Romney +5 in Florida — Sunshine State News

October 26, 2012 – 9:56 am

Another strong poll for Romney in Florida.  The party ID was D +1 (Dem 40, Rep 39, Ind 21). In 2008 it was D +3 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29). In 2004 it was R+4 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23).  The split seems OK but there are likely too few Independents.  Of concern in the poll is Romney support with 21% of African-Americans.  That’s simply not going to happen.

Florida and its important 29 electoral votes are all but in the Romney camp, according to Sunshine State News poll of likely voters taken mostly following the third and final presidential debate.  But the parties still have a big challenge ahead in their ground games. Early voting begins Saturday in Florida. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney pushed above the 50 percent mark in the poll conducted between Oct. 22 and Oct. 24 by Harrisburg, Pa.-based Voter Survey Service. Of 1,001 likely Florida voters, 51 percent were ready to vote for Romney to 46 percent for President Obama. Only 12 percent said the recent debates had any sway on their opinion, with 40 percent of those individuals saying they switched from Obama to Romney and just 22 percent going the other way.

Meanwhile, the state, as of Thursday morning, had already received 1.05 million absentee ballots back from voters, of which 468,417 are from registered Republicans and 414,343 from registered Democrats, according to the Division of Elections. According to the VSS poll results, in which 50 percent of those contacted labeled themselves conservative and the rest evenly split as liberal or moderate, Romney is winning the argument about jobs creation by a 2-1 margin, and even on international issues by a 51 percent to 44 percent margin. Romney has a 15 percentage-point margin with men, with Obama having a 5 percentage-point edge with women voters.  While Obama continues to win with young and black voters, he is underperforming from his 2008 victory with suburban, women and Hispanic voters. The poll also suggests that Obama may be losing some support in the black community, as 21 percent of the respondents identifying themselves as African-American plan to vote for Romney. Lee noted that while some polls using “live” pollsters have pushed Obama numbers above 90 percent among black voters, those using automated polls have shown a more diverse outcome. “This would suggest perhaps Obama won’t be on track to get 95 percent of the black vote this time, but only 90 percent or even less.”

For President Percent
Barack Obama 46
Mitt Romney 51
Other 1
Undecided 2
By keithbacker | Posted in Florida | Also tagged | Comments (23)

Romney +2 in Virginia — Fox News

October 25, 2012 – 7:56 pm

Mitt Romney has a 2-point lead in the latest Fox News poll of Virginia leading 47 to 45.  That leaves plenty of Undecideds (7%) in a race that was expected to go down to the wire but appears to be trending Romney’s way. Pre-debates this poll had President Obama with a 7-point lead and Independents evenly split at 43 a piece.  Independents now break decidedly for Romney 53 to 31. If that margin holds up through election day Virginia will flip back to red on the electoral map. The party ID is D +5 (Dem 39, Rep 34, Ind 23). This is fairly close to the 2008 turnout of D +6 (Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 27) and far off the 2004 turnout of R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26).  It looks like they have too many Democrats and far too few Independents which is doubly good for Obama because Romney is dominating the Independent vote.  No wonder there are rumors flying everywhere that he is pulling resources from the state.

Highlights:

  • Foreign policy: Obama leads 49 to 43
  • Protecting medicare: Obama leads 48 to 43
  • Improving the economy: Romney leads 50 to 44
  • Reducing the Federal deficit: Romney leads 53 to 38
  • Obama job approval: tied at 48 to 48
For President Percent
Barack Obama 45
Mitt Romney 47
Other 1
Undecided 7
By keithbacker | Posted in Virginia | Also tagged | Comments (8)

NBC/WSJ/Marist Grudgingly Concede Nevada and Colorado Are Close

October 25, 2012 – 7:30 pm

The worst polling alliance of this cycle comes back for a few more surveys and gives it the old college try to keep Obama close as the race begins slipping away in Colorado.  The Nevada poll skews towards the Democrats but otherwise seems to be a fair poll:

Colorado

  • Dead heat at 48 to 48 with 2% Undecided
  • Party ID: D +1 (Dem 34, Rep: 33, Ind: 32) versus 2008 R +1 (Dem 30, Rep: 31, Ind: 39) and R +9 (Dem: 29, Rep: 38, Ind: 33) in 2004
  • Colorado is trending Democrat but I highly doubt the Obama machine will achieve a 2pp greater margin than 2008.  Probably too many Dems and Reps and not enough Inds
  • Racial demos in the poll: White 77%, Hispanics 16%, Blacks 3%.  This compares to 2008 of White: 81%, Hispanics: 13%, Blacks: 4%.  A 4pp decline in the White vote?  Highly doubtful as well as the sizable rise in Hispanics 3%.
  • Playing with the racial make-up which again is a conscious choice of polling organizations is their latest attempt to make Obama poll far better than reality.
  • Even with the two above advantages heavily weighted towards Obama, he can remains below 50% and can do no better than a tie.
  • Romney’s personal favorability is +1 48 to 47 even after half-a-billion dollars in negative ads

Nevada

  • Obama +3, 50 to 47 with 2% Undecided
  • Party ID is D +6 (Dem 39, Rep 33 , Ind 27) versus 2008 of D +8 (Dem 38, Rep 30, Ind 26) and 2004 of R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26)
  • Still skewed towards the Democrats record turnout in 2008 when Obama was battling an unarmed opponent who gave up on contesting the state.  Good luck with that one on Nov. 6
  • Racial demos: White 70%, Hispanics 16%, Blacks 7%.  This compares with 2008 of White: 69%, Hispanics 15%, Blacks 10%.  Fairly reasonable break-down.  The key will be whether the enthusiasm gap depresses Hispanic turnout
  • Romney’s personal favorability is +2 48 to 46 even after half-a-billion dollars in negative ads
By keithbacker | Posted in Colorado, Nevada | Also tagged , | Comments (13)

Obama +5 in Pennsylvania — Rasmussen

October 25, 2012 – 1:25 pm

Rasmussen Reports checks in on Pennsylvania and sees President Obama with some daylight but by no means out of reach.  The President has a 5-point lead, 51 to 46:

President Obama still earns over 50% of the vote in Pennsylvania. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Pennsylvania Voters shows the president with 51% of the vote to Romney’s 46%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and two percent (2%) remain undecided. This Pennsylvania survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 24, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 51
Mitt Romney 46
Other 1
Undecided 2
By keithbacker | Posted in Pennsylvania | Also tagged | Comments (37)

Romney +2 in Virginia — Rasmussen

October 25, 2012 – 1:17 pm

The latest from Rasmussen Reports in Virginia has Mitt Romney leading by 3-points 50 to 47:

Mitt Romney still earns 50% support in Virginia, but the presidential race remains a toss-up in the Old Dominion. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters finds Romney with 50% support to President Obama’s 48%. Only one percent (1%) remains undecided. Last week, Romney hit the 50% mark for the first time here, while Obama earned 47% of the vote. With the exception of last week, however, the candidates have been within two points or less of each other in every survey in Virginia since April.

Virginia continues to be a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Ninety-two percent (92%) of the state’s voters now say they’ve made up their minds whom they will vote for. That’s up four points from last week. Romney leads 52% to 48% among these voters. Virginia voters trust Romney more than the president by a 51% to 46% margin when it comes to handling the economy. This is unchanged from a week ago. When it comes to national security and energy policy, it’s a near tie, with Romney posting a one-point edge over Obama in terms of voter trust on both issues. These findings are comparable to voter attitudes nationally. Forty-eight percent (48%) in Virginia expect the economy to get better if Romney is elected and Republicans take control of Congress. Just 38% think that’s likely if Obama is reelected and Democrats take charge of Congress. If Romney wins, 38% believe the economy will get worse, compared to 42% who feel that will be the case if Obama wins.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 48
Mitt Romney 50
Other -
Undecided 1
By keithbacker | Posted in Virginia | Also tagged | Comments (16)

Quick and Dirty on the Gravis Poll for Florida with Romney leading by 1

October 25, 2012 – 1:12 pm

I don’t like the poll for many reasons.  But mostly there are too many contradictions favoring either party.

Party ID is D +9 (Dem 43, Rep 35, Ind 22).  This is absurd for a state that was D +3 in 2008 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29) and R +4 in 2004 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23).

Romney gets 14% of the Democrat vote whereas Obama gets 8% of the GOP vote and Romney leads with Independents by 10.  This should be a 15-point win for Romney

Obama leads among women by 1-point.  If this were true again Romney would win the state by 15 points.

Romney leads with men by 1-point. Under this scenario Obama would carry Florida.

The racial make-up is David Axelrod’s dream scenario where White people en masses don’t vote. This is almost as bad at that SurveyUSA poll. Here the poll’s racial make-up is incredible: 63% White, 20% Hispanics/Cuban, 13% Black, 1% Asian. In 2008 the racial make-up at the ballot box in Florida was: 71% White, 14% Hispanic, 13% Black, 1% Asian. Too few Whites and too many Hispanics.  In my best Dana Carvey impression of George HW Bush, “Not gonna happen…”

It’s great that Romney’s leading in a poll but no matter who was in the lead in this poll it’s value is nil due poll compositions and voter preferences that make little sense.

By keithbacker | Posted in Florida | Also tagged | Comments (5)

All Tied Up in Michigan — Foster White McCollum and Baydou

October 24, 2012 – 8:15 pm

Our friends from Foster White McCollum and Baydou (FWMB) have another intriguing survey of Michigan showing the race all tied up at 47 a piece (h/t cbpds):

Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters for Fox 2 News Detroit to determine their voting and issue preferences for the presidential election.

An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the November General Election.

Thirty five thousand (35,000) calls were placed, and 1,122 respondents fully participated in the survey. The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.93% with a confidence level of 95%.

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you most likely to vote for in the election?

For President Percent
Barack Obama 47
Mitt Romney 47
Other 2
Undecided 4

For anyone quick to dismiss FWMB, read this post first, and dismiss the results at your own peril. Much of the criticism revolves around the fact that FWMB gives complete transparency with they numbers which allows people who don’t like the results cherry pick data and misrepresent the weightings and findings.  If you review the polls of FWMB that I’ve blogged they are rarely too far off the media and usually ahead of the curve.  If you poll enough you’ll have an outlier or two and that is true for FWMB.  But throughout this cycle I have been impressed with their transparency and willingness to face substantive critics head on. Considering how consistently awful Marist polls have been it is incredible people criticize FWMB but leave Marist unchallenged solely because Marist tells them what they want to hear.  On election night, we’ll all know how everyone did.

[link to follow when available]

By keithbacker | Posted in Michigan | Also tagged | Comments (56)

CNN/Time Poll Has Turnout at Democrats +9 in Ohio and Obama Leading

October 24, 2012 – 5:36 pm

The new CNN/Time poll.  What are we going to do with it? The top-line of the poll says Obama leads by 5, 49 to 44 but everything underneath says that poll has little basis in reality.

Independents

In 2008 candidate Obama won Ohio by 5 percentage point while winning Independents by 8 points.  In today’s CNN/Time poll, Mitt Romney leads with Independents by an incredible 13-points but is down overall by 5-points.  That is simply not plausible.

Party ID

The party ID in this poll was D +9 (Dem 37, Rep 28, Ind 29). This compares to D +8 in 2008 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30) and R +5 in 2004 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25).  There is no chance the Democrat turnout advantage will exceed Obama’s 2008 best in a generation turnout which we write as D +8 based on the CNN party ID generally used.  This is even though the actual 2008 party ID was really only D +5 making this D +9 that much more unrealistic.

Early voting and the likely voter screen

Early voting is creating a unique problem for polling organizations this year. Since Democrats tend to vote early, you see the Democrat candidate typically leading by wide margins in early voting. According to the CNN survey “respondents who say they have already voted, Obama holds a two-to-one lead over Romney, 60% to 30%.”  So we know upfront in early voting there is an overwhelming number of Democrats.

When it comes to polls, all voters who said they already voted make it through the likely voter screen and end up in the final results. Approximately 17 percent of the respondents were early voters while 83% had yet to vote. This means a 17% segment of those polled are guaranteed to make it through the likely voter screen and we know that group supported President Obama by a 2-to-1 margin. This inherently over-samples Democrats which practically guarantees a favorable result for Democrats. The problem with early voting and polling ahead of election day is the results will skew in favor of the party with the higher early turnout, in this case the Democrats.  That’s one of the ways you end up with a party ID of D +9 when there is no chance of that turnout occurring on election day.

It was nice of CNN and Time to spend the money to run a poll of all-important Ohio, but I think this poll did little more give false hope to Democrats who are likely in for a rude awakening on election night thanks to unrealistic polls like this one.

By keithbacker | Posted in Ohio | Also tagged , , , , | Comments (65)

Obama +2 in Nevada — Rasmussen

October 24, 2012 – 12:12 pm

Rasmussen Reports shows a tight race in Nevada with Obama leading by 2-points, 50 to 48:

President Obama still receives 50% of the vote in Nevada’s tight presidential race. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Nevada voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate, shows Obama with 50% support to Mitt Romney’s 48%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and one percent (1%) is undecided. Nevada remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. A week ago, the president had a 50% to 47% advantage in Nevada. Obama drew 50% support in surveys from March through July in the state but slipped to 47% last month against Romney’s 45%. The latest numbers represent the highest level of support yet for Romney in the Silver State. The incumbent currently holds a 51% to 47% edge among the 35% of Nevada voters who say they have already voted. Of the 97% of Nevada voters who are certain they will vote in this year’s election, the candidates are tied at 49% apiece.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 50
Mitt Romney 48
Other 1
Undecided 1

(h/t: Zang)

By keithbacker | Posted in Nevada | Also tagged | Comments (31)

Why I Won’t Blog or Link to the SurveyUSA Poll with Obama Leading by 3

October 24, 2012 – 11:25 am

[This was supposed to go up yesterday but never made it.  Sorry]

Any reader of this blog knows I’ll blog polls whether they be good or bad for Mitt Romney with the noted exception of PPP who does advocacy and push polling rendering them not a credible organization.  But when a polls internals are so ludicrous, I won’t waste my time or your time.  This rant is actually quicker than blogging the poll (if you can believe it).

First Obama leads by 3 in Ohio.  It’s a close race so that’s more than possible. But look at these internals:

  • Mitt Romney gets 22% of the African-American vote
  • Barack Obama gets 70% of the African-American vote

Ohio is 80%+ White but come on.  With those %s there is a zero percent chance Obama is leading with support levels like that. Additionally the idea that Mitt Romney is getting 22% of the African-American vote is metaphysically impossible.

The poll says 26% of those surveyed already voted which compares to 8% who have actually voted.  Since Democrats tend to vote early and all voters who said they voted make it through the likely voter screen, you are guaranteed to over sample Democrats.

Party ID is D +7, almost equal to the reported  D +8 in 2008 — a turnout credibly shown to actually be D +5. And as any reader know, Obama’s 2012 turnout will be nothing like his 2008 advantage.

This is a waste of time to think this poll is remotely reflective of the electorate in Ohio today.

By keithbacker | Posted in Ohio | Comments (43)

Romney +2 in New Hampshire — Rasmussen

October 24, 2012 – 10:57 am

Rasmussen Reports hits New Hampshire finding Romney leading by 2-points, 50 to 48:

The presidential race in New Hampshire remains neck-and-neck, with Mitt Romney stretching to a two-point lead. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely New Hampshire Voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate, finds Romney earning 50% support, while President Obama has 48% of the vote. One percent (1%) likes some other candidate, and another one percent (1%) is undecided. This New Hampshire survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 48
Mitt Romney 50
Other 1
Undecided 1
By keithbacker | Posted in New Hampshire | Also tagged | Comments (17)

Obama +5 in Minnesota — Rasmussen

October 23, 2012 – 11:47 am

Romney keeping Minnesota on the radar! I don’t have the full breakdown but thanks to @NumbersMuncher we know Romney leads with Independents by a whopping 17 points and the party ID is aggressively Democrat in a state strongly reversing its Democrat roots in favor of Republicans.  The party ID is D+6.  This compares to D+4 in 2008 and D+3 in 2004.

Here was my earlier explanation for why we should expect Minnesota party identification to trend Republican in this election:

In 2008 Minnesota’s political affiliation change was unlike most of America. Between 2004 and 2008 we saw Battleground States experience wide swings in their party ID as citizens bought into the magnetic story of Barack Obama.  States like Ohio saw its Party ID swing 13-points in favor of Democrats; Nevada swung 12-points in favor of Democrats; North Carolina swung 12-points in favor of Democrats; Virginia swung 10-points; New Hampshire 9-points; and on and on all towards the Democrats.  Minnesota’s party affiliation, however, only swung 1-point towards the Democrats.  This was smaller than every party affiliation move among even the most remote of contested state.  This lack of change during the Democrat tidal wave of 2008 is a major component of hidden Republican strength demonstrated in the chart above.  Minnesota is, and has been, a state trending steadily Republican even in the face of the incredible Democrat wave seen in 2008.

The details from Rasmussen:

President Obama earns just over 50% of the vote in Minnesota.  A new telephone survey of Likely Minnesota Voters finds Barack Obama with 51% support to 46% for Mitt Romney.  One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, while another one percent (1%) is undecided. Minnesota is Leans Obama in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Minnesota was conducted on October 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 51
Mitt Romney 46
Other 1
Undecided 1
By keithbacker | Posted in General | Also tagged , , | Comments (35)

Romney +2 in New Hampshire — American Research Group

October 23, 2012 – 11:31 am

New Hampshire remains a sneaky pro-Romney state within the Battleground context.  I’m your typical jaded conservative in the Northeast frustrated with the reflexive liberal bent to this region.  New Hampshire is that last holdout and I have to say this election far more than any other in recent memory every time I look at the state I really think it is going to break for Romney.  The voters know him well due to its proximity to Boston and Obama’s activist policies don’t mesh well with the “Live Free or Die” state making it ripe for the taking.  The latest from  American Research shows Mitt Romney with a slender 2-point lead, 49 to 47.  Independents are dead even 48 to 48 and that’s an important voter group often accounting for over 40% of the New Hampshire electorate.

The party ID is R +6 (Dem 29, Rep 35, Ind 36). In 2008 it was also D +2 (Dem 29, Rep 27, Ind 45) and in 2004 it was R+7 (Dem 25, Rep 32, Ind 44). This poll is very low on Independents and too high on Republicans.  It is within the 2004 and 2008 bounds but still a bit too many Republicans.  I’d prefer something closer to R +2. Obama is stumping in the Granite state so his poll numbers must be showing not much different in this poll.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 47
Mitt Romney 49
Other 1
Undecided 3
By keithbacker | Posted in New Hampshire | Also tagged | Comments (7)

Obama +2 in Nevada — American Research Group

October 23, 2012 – 11:14 am

American Research group weighs in with a tight poll of Nevada showing President Obama with a 2-point lead, 49 to 47.  Nevada could be a tough state for Romney to flip.  It’s disparate population make it a tough state to poll with Republican support often showing higher in polling than at the voting booth — a change from most states. My gut says Nevada may go to Romney but it will do so by 2-3 points below his national vote margin.  That is, If Romney wins nationally by 5, he wins Nevada by 2-3.  If Romney wins nationally by 1-2 points, he loses Nevada. But Romney is in Henderson, Nevada today and Reno, Nevada tomorrow so it’s not like he isn’t going all out for these 6 electoral votes.  The early voting numbers are also a boon to Romney at this juncture, but he must begin outperforming with Independents if he wants to secure the state.  In this ARG poll, Obama is leading with Independents by 6-points, 50 to 44.

The party ID is D +6 (Dem 43, Rep 37, Ind 20). In 2008 it was D +8 (Dem 38 Rep 30, Ind 32) and in 2004 it was R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26). This is a shade closer to 2008 but Democrats did close strong on voter registrations to mostly reverse what had been great GOP gains relative to 2008.  The enthusiasm gap may play a part in this favoring the Democrats a bit too much, though.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 49
Mitt Romney 47
Other 1
Undecided 3
By keithbacker | Posted in Nevada | Also tagged | Comments (11)

Obama – Romney Tied at 47 in Ohio — Suffolk University

October 22, 2012 – 1:52 pm

The outfit who made all the waves for calling their shot and pulling out of Florida and Virginia (do we even have to mention North Carolina any longer?) has a new poll in Ohio showing the race tied 47 to 47.  The party ID was D +4 (Dem 39, Rep 35, Ind 37). This compares to D +8 in 2008 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30) and R +5 in 2004 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25). A more reasonable split than most polling firms:

Highlights:

  • Obama and Romney are tied 47 to 47
  • With leaners Romney leans 48 to 47.2
  • Among non-early voters, Romney leads 48 to 45
  • Among early voters, Obama leads 54 to 41
  • Early voters made up 20% of the survey
  • Obama’s favorable/Unfavorable is 50/46  — that’s low for him
  • Romney’s favorable/Unfavorable is 50/46  — tied with the President which is huge
  • Does Barack Obama deserve to be re-elected?: 48 to 48
  • Obama job approval at 50/47 — good result
  • Obama leads by 1 on who can best fix the economy, 45 to 44 — good for Obama
  • Obama leads by 7 on foreign policy, 49 to 42 — a steep drop since the Libya attacks
  • Obama leads by 3 on immigration, 43 to 40 — surprisingly even
  • Obama has run a more negative campaign by a margin of 44 to 41
  • Democrats lead on reforming Medicare and Social Security
  • Obamacare remains unfavorable, 49 to 43
Candidate Percent
Barack Obama 47
Mitt Romney 47
Other 3
Undecided 3
By keithbacker | Posted in Ohio | Also tagged | Comments (55)

Romney-Obama Tied at 48 in Iowa — Rasmussen

October 22, 2012 – 12:44 pm

Rasmussen Reports hits the Hawkeye State with the race all knotted up at 48 a piece.  And since Undecideds break overwhelmingly for the challenger, one candidate is likely winning this tie:

President Obama and Mitt Romney are now dead even in the battleground state of Iowa. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters finds Obama and Romney each earning 48% support. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, while two percent (2%) are still undecided. The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Iowa was conducted on October 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Candidate Percent
Barack Obama 48
Mitt Romney 48
Other 1
Undecided 2
By keithbacker | Posted in Iowa | Also tagged | Comments (26)

Romney +4 in Colorado — Rasmussen

October 22, 2012 – 11:20 am

The latest from Rasmussen Reports shows Romney opening some daylight in the Centennial State, leading by 4-points 50 to 46.  Romney leads by 8 with Independents:

Mitt Romney has now reached the 50% mark for the first time in Colorado and leads President Obama by four in the critical swing state. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Colorado Voters finds Romney with 50% support to Obama’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and one percent (1%) remains undecided. Still, Colorado remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. But Colorado is the fourth swing state that has moved in Romney’s direction in the past week. Florida, Missouri and North Carolina have now shifted from Toss-Up to Leans Romney.

Two weeks ago, the candidates were basically tied in Colorado, with the president edging his Republican challenger 49% to 48%. In mid-September, it was Romney 47%, Obama 45%. The candidates were tied in the two surveys prior to that. Obama defeated Republican John McCain 54% to 45% in Colorado in the 2008 election. Ninety-six percent (96%) of Colorado likely voters say they are certain to vote in this election, and Romney leads 51% to 47% in this group. This overall total includes those who have already voted since Colorado allows early voting. It’s Romney 50%, Obama 49% among early voters. However, just 62% of all likely voters in the state say they have already decided whom they will vote for. Romney’s ahead 56% to 41% among these voters. The president leads 54% to 41% among the 38% who say they still could change their minds before they vote.

Candidate Percent
Barack Obama 46
Mitt Romney 50
Other 2
Undecided 1
By keithbacker | Posted in Colorado | Also tagged | Comments (16)

No Reason to Blog SurveyUSA Poll of Florida Showing Obama Up +1

October 20, 2012 – 8:51 am

There are so many awful things about the poll make-up, it essentially verifies that Florida is quickly becoming out of reach for Obama.

The #s

  • The poll shows Obama leading 47 to 46 with 5% Undecided — still under 50%
  • 5% are undecided which if 2/3 break for the challenger is really 48.7 Obama versus 49.3 Romney  but it gets MUCH worse for Obama below

Demographics

  • The poll’s racial make-up is incredible:  55% White, 23% Hispanics/Cuban, 14% Black, 8% Asian
  • In 2008 the racial make-up at the ballot box in Florida was: 71% White, 14% Hispanic, 13% Black, 1% Asian
  • Far too few Whites who break for Romney 51 – 42, far too many Hispanics which break for Obama 52 to 44, and too many Asians who break for Romney 46 to 39. And Blacks only support Obama 84 to 14, well below 2008

Party ID

  • The party ID is D +9 ( Dem 43, Rep 34, Ind 23)
  • In 2008 it was D +3 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29)
  • In 2004 it was R+4 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23)
  • Independents down 6 and Democrats up 6 from 2008. All those Independents rushing into the arms of the Democrats, right?  Just like we are seeing NO WHERE in the county

Conclusion

  • Obama still isn’t close to 50% with 17 days left.  Horrible for an incumbent
  • The survey has a demographic make-up with 0% chance of showing up on election day
  • The turnout models a Democrat advantage of 9 percentage points, 3x greater than the 2008 turnout. Unrealistic by any measure
  • Despite each of these overwhelming and fantastical Democrat skewing, with Undecideds factored in Obama is still losing 48.7 to 49.3
  • This poll with Obama leading may be the worst Florida news I’ve seen for Obama this cycle … Time to move on to Pennsylvania (and Minnesota?)
By keithbacker | Posted in Florida | Also tagged | Comments (15)

Romney +3 in Florida — Fox News

October 19, 2012 – 6:54 pm

Fox News has another poll showing daylight between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama in Florida.  Romney enjoys a 3-point lead in this latest survey, 48 to 45. Romney does a better job consolidating his base garnering 92% of the Republican vote and 7% of the Democrat vote.  Obama garners 88% of the Democrat vote and 4% of the Republican vote. Independents favor Romney by 6%, 46 to 40. Romney has closed the gender gap trailing Obama by only 1-point 46 to 47 while maintaining an 8-point lead among men at 51 to 43. Obama’s support among White voters remains low at 35% and we find another poll where Mitt Romney shows great gains with Florida non-Whites (not just Hispanics) and leads Obama 48 to 45 — a real shocker there.

The party ID is D +1 (Dem 40, Rep 39, Ind 19). In 2008 it was D +3 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29) and in 2004 it was R+4 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23). Again probably low on Independents and a shade towards the Democrats but reasonable versus many other polling outfits.  More good news for Team Romney in the Sunshine State.

The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers October 17-18, 2012, among a random sample of 1,215 Florida registered voters (RV). A subsample of 1,130 has been defined as likely voters (LV), with a margin of error of ± 3 percentage points.

Candidate Percent
Barack Obama 45
Mitt Romney 48
Other 1
Undecided 6
By keithbacker | Posted in Florida | Also tagged | Comments (9)

Romney +1 In Florida (post-debate) — CNN/ORC International

October 19, 2012 – 4:32 pm

CNN/ORC International just released a poll in Florida showing Mitt Romney with a  1-point lead 49 to 48. This is a 5-point swing from their late August poll showing President Obama with a 4-point lead 50 to 46.Obama’s support among Whites is 35% and Non-Whites 74% — neither are good levels for him. The gender gap has effectively collapsed with Obama leading by +2 with women (49-47) while Romney leads +4 with  men (50-46). Both candidates have solid locks on their base and Independents split exactly even at 46 a piece.

The party ID is dead even (Dem 32, Rep 32, Ind 36). In 2008 it was D +3 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29) and in 2004 it was R+4 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23).  Funny how polls splitting the difference between the last two elections (my preferred method) don’t show crazy Obama leads.  I wonder why that is? (not really)

In Florida, interviews with 1,030 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on October 17-18, 2012. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The Florida sample also includes 922 interviews among registered voters (plus or minus 3 percentage points) and 681 interviews among likely voters (plus or minus 4 percentage points). In Florida, 777 interviews were conducted among landline respondents and 253 interviews among cell phone respondents.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 48
Mitt Romney 49
Other 1
Undecided 1
By keithbacker | Posted in Florida | Also tagged | Comments (12)

Obama +2 in Wisconsin — Rasmussen

October 19, 2012 – 1:58 pm

Another Battleground State poll from Rasmussen Reports this time in Wisconsin showing President Obama leading by 2-points, 50 to 48 over Mitt Romney. Obama leads among Independents by a whopping 11-points and touches the important 50% threshold:

Wisconsin remains a two-point race following Tuesday night’s presidential debate. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters finds President Obama with 50% support, while Mitt Romney earns 48% of the vote. One percent (1%) likes another candidate in the race. This race remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Obama defeated Republican John McCain 56% to 42% in Wisconsin in 2008. The president posted a similar 51% to 49% lead in the state earlier this month. In surveys in Wisconsin since October of last year, the president has earned 44% to 52% of the vote, while Romney’s support has ranged from 41% to 49%. Ninety-seven percent (97%) of likely Wisconsin voters say they are certain to vote, and the president leads 50% to 48% among this group. Wisconsin allows early voting, and among those who have already voted, it’s Romney 54%, Obama 43%. Of those who have yet to vote, 90% say they’ve already decided whom they will support. Obama leads 50% to 49% among these voters. Both candidates draw more than 90% support from voters in their respective parties in Wisconsin. The president leads by 11 points among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties. This Wisconsin survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 18, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 50
Mitt Romney 48
Other 1
Undecided -
By keithbacker | Posted in Wisconsin | Also tagged | Comments (26)

Romney +5 in Florida (post-debte) — Rasmussen

October 19, 2012 – 12:18 pm

The latest from Rasmussen Reports shows Mitt Romney with a clear lead over President Obama in Florida, 51 to 46. Romney leads among Independents by a whopping 13-points and clears the important 50% threshold:

Mitt Romney has taken his biggest lead of the year in Florida and now outpaces President Obama by five points in the key swing state following Tuesday night’s debate. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Voters finds Romney with 51% support to Obama’s 46%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) remain undecided. Florida now moves from a Toss-Up to Leans Romney in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Last week, Romney held a slightly narrower 51% to 47% lead. Prior to that time, the candidates have been within two points of each other in Florida in every survey since April. Ninety-five percent (95%) of likely voters in the Sunshine State say they are certain to vote in this year’s election. Among these voters, it’s Romney 51%, Obama 47%. Florida allows early voting, and among voters who have already voted, Romney’s ahead 51% to 45%. The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on October 18, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 46
Mitt Romney 51
Other 1
Undecided 2
By keithbacker | Posted in Florida | Also tagged | Comments (30)

Romney +3 in Virginia (post-debate) — Rasmussen

October 19, 2012 – 9:59 am

The latest from Rasmussen Reports shows Mitt Romney with a slight lead over President Obama in Virginia, 50 to 47.  Romney leads among Independents by 4-points and kisses the important 50% threshold:

Per Rasmussen:

Mitt Romney has now hit the 50% mark in Virginia. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters, taken two nights after the second presidential debate, shows Romney with 50% support to President Obama’s 47%. Two percent (2%) remain undecided. The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on October 18, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 47
Mitt Romney 50
Other -
Undecided 2
By keithbacker | Posted in General, Virginia | Also tagged | Comments (21)

Obama +6 in Michigan — EPIC-MRA

October 18, 2012 – 8:38 pm

Despite the rapid tightening of polls with Mitt Romney leading in many Battlegrounds, Michigan remains a tough state for the native born candidate.  Well respected EPIC-MRA conducted a poll for the Detroit Free Press and WXYZ-TV (Channel 7) and found President Obama holding on to a  6-point lead 52 to 46:

 President Barack Obama’s improved performance in Tuesday’s debate with Republican rival Mitt Romney appears to have boosted him to a wider lead among likely Michigan voters, a Detroit Free Press/WXYZ-TV (Channel 7) poll shows. When counting undecided voters leaning toward either candidate, Obama, the Democrat, held a 52%-46% edge on Romney in an automated poll of 800 likely Michigan voters on Wednesday, a day after the men met in New York for the second of three debates.

Almost half — 46% — thought Obama won the most recent debate, compared to 35% who thought Romney won. Eleven percent called the debate a tie and 8% were undecided. A poll after the first debate showed voters overwhelmingly gave Romney the advantage. “I think the debate had a role” in Obama’s lead, said Bernie Porn, pollster for EPIC-MRA of Lansing, which conducted the survey for the Free Press and WXYZ-TV (Channel 7). “You look at people who watched the debate, they’re voting for Obama more than the state as a whole is. Only among people who didn’t watch the debate are they tied.” The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Taken with other recent polls, the EPIC-MRA survey suggests that Obama is once again solidifying a lead in Michigan after seeing a spike in support for Romney following the first debate on Oct. 3 in Denver.

By keithbacker | Posted in Michigan | Also tagged | Comments (9)

NBC/WSJ/Marist Survey CodePink in Iowa and Wisconsin, Find Obama Leading

October 18, 2012 – 7:00 pm

I’m going to feel bad when the Marist Poll service goes out of business due to lack of reliability after this cycle’s monstrously awful polls (I won’t really).   You can read my previous take-downs of the least reliable poling outfitl this cycle here, here and here.

I’m still waiting on the detailed crosstabs but based on the released info from MSNBC, today’s doozies include Iowa and Wisconsin:

Iowa

President Obama leads by 9-points (which explains why he’s still campaigning heavily there) 52 to 43.  Two percent are voting Other and 4% are undecided.

  • 34% of those surveyed already voted which compares to 18% of Iowans who have actually voted early
  • Half of actual early voters are Democrats giving rise to a massive over-sampling of Democrat early voters

Party ID is D +2 (Dem 33, Rep 31, Ind 35). This compares to 2008 of D +1 (Dem 34, Rep 33, Ind 33) and 2004 R +2 (Dem 34, Rep 36, Ind 30).  A highly unlikely scenario considering every metric between voter registration, early voting proclivity and enthusiasm dramatically favors Republicans versus the 2008 comparison.

Addendum: Now they tell us …

Ya think? Duh.

Wisconsin

President Obama leads by 6-points 51 to 45.  Only one percent are voting Other and 3% are Undecided.

The party ID was D +5 (Dem 33, Rep 28, Ind 38). This compares to 2008 of D +6 (Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 29) and 2004 of R +3 (Dem 35, Rep 38, Ind 27) in 2004.  Again a very aggressive turnout in favor of the President comparable to his 2008 performance which seems highly unlikely,

UPDATE: Healthy reminder from Jay Cost at The Weekly Standard.  Marist has a fairly bad track record of over-sampling Democrats.  Immediately before the 2010 mid-terms they released a national survey claiming that among likely voters the country was split right down the middle 46 to 46 voting between the Democrats and republicans up for Congress (~60% of the way down). As history showed, the election results were quite different from what Marist was seeing. Republicans won the popular vote 52 to 45 and gaining 67 seats in the House of Representatives.  As the Washington Examiner’s Michael Barone wrote that “you could argue that this is the best Republican showing ever.”  Marist?  Nice knowing you.

By keithbacker | Posted in Iowa, Wisconsin | Also tagged , | Comments (30)

Romney +4 in Pennsylvania — Susquehanna (confirmed)

October 18, 2012 – 4:02 pm

Latest PA statewide, conducted October 11-13, shows Romney leading by 4-points in PA, 49%-45% after his excellent debate performances.

The thing to remember about Susquehanna, on September 23 they published a poll saying Obama was up by only 2-points 47 to 45. Most every pollster had results greatly different than Susquehanna. Even two days prior, the much respected Rasmussen Reports published a poll saying Obama was up 11-points 51 to 39.

Today, EVERY pollster has caught up to where Susquehanna had been for weeks:

Susquehanna also ran another poll October 8 which confirmed Obama’s 2-point lead

Now Susquehanna says Romney is up 4 …

Thanks to a heads-up from Colvinus in the comment section we see the Washington Examiner has some details:

Susquehanna Polling and Research provided The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama. It’s the first poll to show Romney leading among likely voters in the Keystone State. “The polling is very clear that the race is certainly up for grabs and Republicans have a tendency to never believe it,” Susquehanna President James Lee told The Examiner. Romney isn’t spending much time or money in Pennsylvania, which hasn’t backed a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.

Lee said Romney has made significant gains in the all-important suburbs of Philadelphia, a ring of counties that helped push Obama to victory in 2008. “Republicans haven’t been able to do that in 20 years,” Lee said. “Romney has made some major inroads.” Lee said Romney also gained ground in western Pennsylvania, where socially conservative, blue-collar Democrats have turned their backs on Obama.

Update from Guy Benson at Townhall.com:

Just spoke to Susquehanna’s chief pollster in PA. Says the Romney 49 – Obama 45 poll is based on 1,376 LV with a D+6 sample.

— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 18, 2012

The party ID in 2008 was D +8 and in 2004 it was D +2.  Very fair split relative to the prior elections.

By keithbacker | Posted in Pennsylvania | Also tagged | Comments (60)
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