Battleground Watch

NPR ran two polls, both a nationwide poll and a 12-state Battleground state poll. Both showed the race basically even but the Battleground state poll was exactly tied 46 – 46, with one important caveat — they weighted the poll as if turnout were the same as 2008 when the Democrat wave struck and they out-represented Republicans by a 7-point margin.  That ain’t happening in 2012 which means this poll is great news for Mitt Romney. Here are the details on the survey:

• 1000 likely voters surveyed, including an oversample to reach 462 voters in 12 battleground states, selected randomly from a random-digit-dialing sample including both cellular and landline telephone numbers. Interviews were conducted July 9-12, 2012
• The 12 battleground states included: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin
• The sample was weighted so the total interviews in the battleground states reflects the proportion of the national electorate
• The sample includes a Democratic advantage of 7 points over Republicans. The sample is 36 percent Democrat, 31 percent Independent, and 29 percent Republican

Battleground voters opinions:

• Right track/Wrong track for the county was 31% to 65% (-34 points underwater)
• Approve/Disapprove of Obama’s job was 48% to 49% (-1 point underwater)
• Support/Oppose Obamacare was 39% to 52% (-13 points underwater)

Battleground state poll Presidential race results