You can only laugh at the professional irresponsibility of these polls. We’ve busted Marist and NBC a bunch of times before and now the Wall Street Journal sullies its name getting in bed with these jokesters.
** Now we can confirm thanks to Hot Air the party IDs are much like we thought – very pro-Democrat replicating the 2008 turnout or every better for Obama. Sigh.
I don’t have the cross-tabs yet to get exact party IDs but the Ohio survey has Romney leading Obama among independents by 3-points but LOSING the state by 7-points. This tells you there is a HUGE over-sampling of Democrats. The party ID on election day in 2008 had Democrats with an 8-point advantage in Ohio: Dem 39, Rep: 31, Ind 30. The party ID in 2004 was a 5-point advantage for REPUBLICANS: Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind: 25. The mid-term election in 2010 was split perfectly even between the two parties. Per usual, they are polling as if Obama can recreate the 2008 wave and probably even exceed his performance to achieve a poll where he’s leading.
Update: Now hearing this sample was D +10 compared to D +8 in 2008 and R +5 in 2004. Here it is: Dem 38, Rep 28, Ind 32 or D +10. Confirmed wholly unrealistic sample.
The Florida poll doesn’t have a glaring issue yet, but Obama leads with Independents by 8-points but only 7 with the overall populations. That doesn’t seem correct although Florida party ID shifts like Ohio. In 2008 the party ID was D +3: Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29. in 2004 the party ID was R+4, Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23. In the 2010 mid-term the party ID was split perfectly even.
Update: Party ID in the Florida survey is D +2, Dem 35, Rep 33, Ind 30 much like it was in 2008.
The Virginia poll has the same issue as Florida. Romney leads by 2 among Independents but is down statewide by 5 points. Elsewhere I’m see that party ID in Virginia was Dem 31, Rep 26, Ind 43 (thanks Ben). In 2008 the advantage on election day was D +6: Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 27. In 2004 the party ID was R +4: Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26. No figures available for 2010.
Update: The party ID above is correct so the conclusions are all the same. The press wishes to recreate the 2008 Obama wave and the pollsters reflect that despite the fact that no reasonable person believes that can be replicated.
BOTTOM LINE: Per usual the polling services continue to sample the electorate as if President Obama will have much the same turnout he had in his historic 2008 election. Every single poll says much of his base is less enthusiastic (youth and Hispanics) while the GOP is unquestionably fired up in no small part due to antipathy towards Obama. There are only two sane takeaways from these polls: Romney is doing decent with Independents in Virginia and Ohio while Obama is doing well with Independents in Florida. After that, the only thing I can say is these polls have no relevance to November 2012 as they are representative samples based on Obama enthusiasm of 4 years ago which is non-existent today.