October 2, 2012 – 12:06 pm
It is still comical to see these gawd-awful poll internals presented as credible polls. When We Ask America first burst onto the scene Leftys cried they were a partisan pro-Republican polling form because they were owned by the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association. By that they cried foul because this was sponsored by a business association of manufacturers and anyone pro-Business had to be a biased Republican outfit.
Now We Ask America time and again comes out with poll results impossible to believe that get passed off as credible. In Missouri, where Mitt Romney allegedly only leads by 3-points, he outpaces Obama among Independents by 16-points. This must be the huge Democrat wave we are seeing in the Show Me State that led President Obama to not even campaign in a state he lost by only 4,000 votes in 2008. A state with such a Democrat fervor the most unelectable Republican this cycle has pulled to even with the incumbent Democrat in the Senate race.
But we don’t blog Missouri so we’ll move on to Nevada with a comical lead for Obama of 10.5-points with Mitt Romney favored among Independents by 15.4-points. The Nevada Democrat party is doing laps around the state GOP party right now on voter registration erasing all of the gains the GOP made ahead of the Ron Paul takeover, but this is ludicrous. Nevada’s Democrat advantage at the voting booth was 8-points in 2008 (Dem 38, Rep 30, Ind 12) flipping the GOP advantage in 2004 of 4-points (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26). Based on the absurd Obama lead and Romney’s margin with Independents, the survey has to have a 20+ point advantage of Democrats surveyed. Truly astonishingly awful. Definite winner of most in-the-bag pollster of the day.
Now I decry biased battleground state samples and unrealistic party ID breakdowns wherever I see them. And almost always they are in favor of the Democrats. Today’s CNN poll shows Obama with a +3 point lead nationally. But national polls are not what this blog is about. Interestingly, beneath the headline number is what we like, a 15-state Battleground state polling breakout showing Mitt Romney with an +8 point lead. Break out the champagne, right? Not so fast.
We like our 9-state battleground map and most all of the polling and news has justified each state’s inclusion despite various organizations disagreements notwithstanding.
Today’s CNN 15-state Battleground is wholly justified if this were mid-2011 and we were simply looking at the Obama 2008 election results. Obama won Indiana and came within a whisker (less than 4000 votes) of winning Missouri. Arizona is a state where Democrats believed their immigration hopes might carry the state. So each state’s inclusion had a basis looking at Obama’s 2008 success. However, today Indiana is back to being solidly Republican (thanks in no small part to eliminating massive voter fraud from 2008), Missouri is not being contested by Obama and Arizona lacks the “coalition of the ascendent” Democrats rely on for victories in Battleground states. Their inclusion in this survey biases the overall number too much to put a lot of stock in the Battleground state lead (heck, we wouldn’t even include North Carolina although it is balanced by New Mexico’s inclusion).
Despite these fair criticisms, it is still nice to be leading any poll and especially a Battleground poll by +8 points. I would just like to see a more reasonable battleground slice and greater granularity within any Battleground poll.
By keithbacker
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Posted in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin
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Also tagged Arizona, CNN, Indiana, New Mexico, North Carolina, polls
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First Claire McCaskill made clear she wanted on the bus. Now Georgia House of Representatives member John Barrow raced to the front of the line to buy his ticket:
Augusta U.S. Rep. John Barrow will skip the Democratic National Convention in September, adding to a growing list of Democrats distancing themselves from the national party’s major quadrennial get-together. Barrow spokesman Richard Carbo said Tuesday that Barrow is not going to Charlotte because he is “planning a number of events throughout [the] district during that time.” Barrow is in his fourth term and faces a difficult re-election test in a district newly redrawn to lean Republican. He moved from Savannah to Augusta this year to remain in the reshaped 12th District.
The excuses ring hollow as many are “too busy” or have “conflicting schedules” which doesn’t fool anyone. By September elected officials won’t be able to make the convention because they were “washing their hair” or “out of the country.”
Either way, seats are filling fast, so get your tickets soon!
The “We’re Not With Obama” Bandwagon
- Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin, West Virginia
- Sen. Joe Manchin, West Virginia
- Rep. Nick Rahall, West Virginia
- Rep. Mark Critz, Pennsylvania
- Rep. Bill Owens, New York
- Rep. Kathy Hochul, New York
- Rep. Jim Matheson, Utah
- Sen. Claire McCaskill, Missouri
- Sen. John Tester, Montana
- Rep. John Barrow, Georgia
In a story about the Missouri Governor deciding to attend the Democratic National Convention, Claire McCaskill gets a mention with a “we have to check our schedule” non-commitment:
Plans are less clear though for U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., who continues to be hammered by Republicans and allied groups because she was one of Obama’s early supporters. A campaign aide said the senator’s schedule for September was still in flux. McCaskill expects to be in a tough re-election battle. McCaskill had missed the state Democratic convention several weeks ago because her mother has been ill. She did make the party’s biggest fundraising event of the year, the Jefferson-Jackson dinner, last Friday. McCaskill also skipped the 2004 Democratic presidential convention in Boston because she was engaged in a spirited contest for governor. McCaskill was in a difficult political position that year because she was challenging a fellow Democrat already holding the office, then-Gov. Bob Holden. The national convention that year was held in late July, just weeks before Missouri’s 2004 presidential primary, in which McCaskill defeated Holden. She lost that November to the Republican nominee, Matt Blunt.
We’ll hold a seat for you Claire, but you better hurry, spots are going fast!
UPDATE: McCaskill has officially booked her ticket.
The “We’re Not With Obama” Bandwagon
- Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin, West Virginia
- Sen. Joe Manchin, West Virginia
- Rep. Nick Rahall, West Virginia
- Rep. Mark Critz, Pennsylvania
- Rep. Bill Owens, New York
- Rep. Kathy Hochul, New York
- Rep. Jim Matheson, Utah
- Sen. Claire McCaskill, Missouri
- Sen. John Tester, Montana
Following the success of Scott Walker’s reforms and the resounding defeat of unions, many Governors may enact Wisconsin-style reforms to reverse state deficits. Mitt Romney already said on election night that Walker’s win would “echo throughout the country” and it is very possible Romney may try to harness these economic turnarounds and stump on the reforms in Battleground states and beyond.
The Associated Press identified five states that could see a repeat of the Wisconsin reforms. These states are all either Battleground states or right on the fringe for both campaigns:
States that could see renewed efforts to pass anti-union measures in the wake of Wisconsin’s recall election:
MICHIGAN: Republicans in the state Legislature are eager to pass right-to-work legislation that would limit unions’ ability to collect fees from nonunion workers. Gov. Rick Snyder has discouraged the measure for now, but unions are trying to collect enough signatures for a ballot initiative this November that would amend the state constitution to prohibit right-to-work laws. Earlier this year, Snyder signed into law a measure prohibiting schools from deducting union dues from employees’ paychecks.
MINNESOTA: Republicans want to revive efforts to pass a constitutional amendment to make Minnesota a right-to-work state.
MISSOURI: GOP lawmakers want to pare back mandatory wages on public works projects and halt the perpetual deduction of union dues from public employee paychecks by requiring annual written authorization.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Last year, Democratic Gov. John Lynch vetoed a bill last year that would have made New Hampshire a right-to-work state. The House passed it again this year, but it died when Republicans realized they did not have a veto-proof majority. House Speaker William O’Brien says he will try to pass the measure again next year, when the state could have a Republican governor.
NEW MEXICO: Gov. Susana Martinez has tried to limit the state’s collective bargaining law. Through legal action, she has won control of a board that oversees public worker contract disputes.
