In the immediate aftermath of Paul Ryan’s selection as Romney’s VP, the Obama re-election team in the media televised and wrote countless ominous stories about Ryan having a meaningful negative impact the Romney campaign, going so far as to write off some battleground states. We immediately told you those stories were complete bunk and every poll since then has confirmed this. We’ll set aside the controversial Foster McCollum poll for now and look at just the Seniors vote in this morning’s Democrat over-sampled Quinnipiac polls.
In Florida, where we showed the sampling to be a Democrat wave meaningfully higher than 2008, Seniors preferred Romney-Ryan by 13 points 55 to 42. In 2008 Seniors voted for John McCain by 8 points 53 to 45. So a five point bump among seniors in a poll that over-samples Democrats.
In Ohio, where the sampling matched 2008′s Democrat wave that isn’t going to be repeated, Seniors preferred Romney-Ryan by 8 points 52 to 44. In 2008 Seniors voted for John McCain by 11 points 55 to 44. That’s a 3-point drop both within the margin of error and reflective of the Dem over-sampling.
In Wisconsin, where the sampling was nominally below the 2008 Democrat wave, Seniors preferred Romney-Ryan by 2 points 49 to 47. In 2008, seniors were perfectly split 50-50, so a 2-point bump for Romney -Ryan.
The bottom line is the Paul Ryan impact on seniors is a net positive with momentum shading towards being a decided positive based on the likely voter identification on election day in November — completely contrary to what the media was breathlessly telling you in the immediate aftermath of his selection.