Tag Archives: media reelection mode

Paul Ryan’s Impact on Battleground State Seniors — Definite Plus to No Impact

August 23, 2012 – 10:26 am

In the immediate aftermath of Paul Ryan’s selection as Romney’s VP, the Obama re-election team in the media televised and wrote countless ominous stories about Ryan  having a meaningful negative impact the Romney campaign, going so far as to write off some battleground states.  We immediately told you those stories were complete bunk and every poll since then has confirmed this.  We’ll set aside the controversial Foster McCollum poll for now and look at just the Seniors vote in this morning’s Democrat over-sampled Quinnipiac polls.

In Florida, where we showed the sampling to be a Democrat wave meaningfully higher than 2008, Seniors preferred Romney-Ryan by 13 points 55 to 42.  In 2008 Seniors voted for John McCain by 8 points 53 to 45.  So a five point bump among seniors in a poll that over-samples Democrats.

In Ohio, where the sampling matched 2008′s Democrat wave that isn’t going to be repeated, Seniors preferred Romney-Ryan by 8 points 52 to 44.  In 2008 Seniors voted for John  McCain by 11 points 55 to 44. That’s a 3-point drop both within the margin of error and reflective of the Dem over-sampling.

In Wisconsin, where the sampling was nominally below the 2008 Democrat wave, Seniors preferred Romney-Ryan by 2 points 49 to 47. In 2008, seniors were perfectly split 50-50, so a 2-point bump for Romney -Ryan.

The bottom line is the Paul Ryan impact on seniors is a net positive with momentum shading towards being a decided positive based on the likely voter identification on election day in November — completely contrary to what the media was breathlessly telling you in the immediate aftermath of his selection.

By keithbacker | Posted in Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin | Also tagged , , | Comments (1)

Obama Ohio Campaign Director Under Investigation … Media Mum

July 6, 2012 – 2:33 pm

With President Obama barnstorming through Ohio, his state party campaign director was reeling from scandalous investigations:

The chairman of the Franklin County Democratic Party has resigned amid investigations by county officials and the Ohio secretary of state’s office into payments made to a campaign fundraiser. Greg Schultz emailed his resignation letter to party leaders yesterday afternoon and said he has asked campaign consultant Greg Haas to consider taking the position.

Where is Shultz going to focus his time? On the Obama campaign

In his letter, Schultz, state director of President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign, said he was stepping down as chairman to focus full-time on the campaign.

Shultz may not exactly be welcome there

Party officials said members of Obama’s campaign have pressured Schultz to step down because they were concerned about his connection to fundraiser Melissa Barnhart. Schultz hired Barnhart to be the party’s fundraiser shortly after he was named party chairman in 2011. At about the same time, he started approving payments to Barnhart for undocumented work, reported in a series of stories by The Dispatch. Those payments totaled $20,500. Barnhart said the money was for work done on Columbus City Council races years ago and that three party officials could vouch for her. Those officials did not do so when asked by The Dispatch.

Curious the media never mentioned this is any of Obama’s many campaign events in the state.

By keithbacker | Posted in Ohio | Also tagged , | Comments (0)

Obama’s Economic Recovery is Always Right Around the Corner

June 30, 2012 – 6:50 pm

Reason.com itemizes an incredible list of “Once-a-month quotes from the Obama administration and the media about how the economy will be booming any minute now.” Be sure to read all 42 of them which include each month’s rate of U-3 unemployment and labor force non-participation:

  • January 10, 2009: Council of Economic Advisers Chair-designate Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein, economic advisor to Vice President-Elect Joe Biden: “As Figure 1 shows, even with the large prototypical (stimulus) package, the unemployment rate in 2010Q4 is predicted to be approximately 7.0%, which is well below the approximately 8.8% that would result in the absence of a plan.” (Unemployment 7.8 percent, labor force non-participation 34.3 percent)
  • February 25, 2009: Vice President Joe Biden: “We have an opportunity to get the nation back to work and back on its feet….And we have to do it right.” (8.3 percent, 34.3 percent)
  • March 15, 2009: Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke: “We’ll see the recession coming to an end probably this year.” (8.7 percent, 34.4 percent)
  • April 14, 2009: President Barack Obama: “[W]e are beginning to see glimmers of hope.” (8.9 percent, 34.4 percent)
  • May 18, 2009: CNNMoney: “Job recovery may be on the way.” (9.4 percent, 34.3 percent)
  • June 9, 2009: NewGeography.com: “There are plenty of reasons that Krugman and others are seeing encouraging signs in the economy.” (9.5 percent, 34.3 percent)
  • July 14, 2009: Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner: “The force of the global recession is now receding.” (9.5 percent, 34.5 percent)
  • August 4, 2009: Boston Globe: “Vice President Joe Biden, put in charge of keeping waste and fraud out of the $787 billion economic stimulus package, declared today ‘without reservation‘ that the recovery plan is working.” (9.6 percent, 34.6 percent)
  • September 24, 2009: CNN: “Biden on the Recovery Act: ‘If It Fails, I’m Dead‘” (9.8 percent, 34.9 percent)
  • October 31, 2009: President Barack Obama: “I am pleased to offer some better news that—while not cause for celebration—is certainly reason to believe that we are moving in the right direction.” (10 percent, 34.9 percent)
  • November 13, 2009: Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner: “We are seeing growth resume in the United States.” (9.9 percent, 35 percent)
  • December 13, 2009: Larry Summers, director of the National Economic Council: “Today, everybody agrees that the recession is over, and the question is what the pace of the expansion is going to be.” (9.9 percent, 35.4 percent)
  • January 27, 2010: President Barack Obama: “And after two years of recession, the economy is growing again.” (9.7 percent, 35.2 percent)
  • February 1, 2010: Office of Management and Budget Director Peter Orszag: “We just came through a year in which a second Great Depression was averted.” (9.8 percent, 35.1 percent)
  • March 15, 2010: John Cassidy, The New Yorker: “Economists are still debating what it was that ended the financial crisis and turned the economy around. It is inarguable, though, that Geithner’s stabilization plan has proved more effective than many observers expected.” (9.8 percent, 35.1 percent)
  • Read More »
By keithbacker | Posted in General | Also tagged | Comments (0)

Obama’s Softball Interviews With Compliant Battleground Media

June 12, 2012 – 8:07 am

For your viewing pleasure, here are the local PR campaigns, I mean interviews President Obama did Monday in the Battleground states.

  • KKTV, Colorado Springs, CO – Link
  • WBAY, Green Bay, WI – Link
  • KTVN, Reno, NV – Link
  • WDBJ, Roanoke, VA – Link
  • WYFF, Greenville, SC – Link
  • KFSN, Fresno, CA – Link
  • WJXT, Jacksonville, FL – Link
  • KTIV, Sioux City, IA – Link

Obama was mostly on his jobs/economy message, and/but didn’t get pressed to address his Friday “fine” moment. He also talked about why he didn’t campaign in Wisconsin and hit Romney on creating the model for the ACA.

By keithbacker | Posted in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Virginia, Wisconsin | Comments (0)
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