Tag Archives: Keystone Pipeline

Dwindling Rust Belt Counties Left Wanting

July 9, 2012 – 3:36 am

Michael Barone takes a deep-dive into the 33 counties that make up a strong but dwindling Democratic coalition. Obama desperately needs to keep this coalition intact if he is to win Ohio and Pennsylvania and Friday’s jobs report made this effort all the more difficult:

[With expectantly bad unemployment figures being released] Why did the president’s campaign schedule a two-day bus tour of northern Ohio and western Pennsylvania to coincide with the day the unemployment numbers were announced? Sure, Ohio and Pennsylvania are important states politically. They have 18 and 20 electoral votes, and Obama carried them in 2008 with 51 and 54 percent of the votes. [But] current polling shows Obama with only 46 percent in Ohio and 47 percent in Pennsylvania when paired against Mitt Romney.

This was deep blue territory

Obama’s bus tour was aimed at the historically Democratic Rust Belt territory. Since the United Steelworkers, United Auto Workers and United Rubber Workers organized the steel, auto and rubber factories on Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown and Toledo, this has been prime Democratic territory. Even in 1984, when Ronald Reagan was winning a 59 to 40 percent landslide, this Rust Belt — 19 counties of northern and eastern Ohio and 14 counties of western Pennsylvania — voted 52 to 47 percent for Walter Mondale. It was 12 points more Democratic than the national average. If these 33 counties had been a single state, they would have cast 19 electoral votes for Mondale, more than doubling the 13 he won from his native Minnesota and the District of Columbia.

Not your daddy’s rust belt

In the years since, the economy of the Rust Belt has changed. The biggest employers in Cleveland and Pittsburgh these days are not steel mills but hospital complexes. There has been considerable outmigration of young people, and from 1980 to 2010, the population of these 33 counties declined by 7 percent, while the national population increased by 36 percent. If they were a single state, they would have 14 electoral votes, down from 19 three decades ago.

Obama feeling its effects

The aging electorate of the Rust Belt remains Democratic, and these counties voted 56 to 42 percent for Barack Obama. But that means that they were only 3 percent more Democratic than the national average. The polling data suggests that Obama is not running as strong in the Rust Belt counties this year. The bus tour was undoubtedly aimed at pushing his numbers up.

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By keithbacker | Posted in Ohio, Pennsylvania | Also tagged , , , , | Comments (0)

The Rust Belt May Save Obama Despite Himself

June 26, 2012 – 8:08 am

The Obama Administration touts an “All of the above” energy policy that doesn’t resonate well in the Rust Belt states in America. From spiking the Keystone Pipeline to his “war on coal”, Obama has often been frustrated in his attempts to defend these policies. However, Joel Kotkin in The Daily Beast takes a look at how Obama is playing in this part of America and thinks despite these policies he may still pull off a victory:

The industrial zone’s four key states—Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania—constitute the most critically contested territory in this year’s contest. Fifty-four electoral votes are at play here, with Pennsylvania’s 20 votes alone equaling all those at stake in the much-ballyhooed battleground of the Intermountain West (Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico).  The Midwest is also home to the two states with the biggest drops in unemployment over the past two years. Michigan leads the way with an almost five percentage point drop, while Ohio comes in second with a nearly three–point decline. in a row.

The return of manufacturing jobs

In the last two years the nation has added more than 400,000 manufacturing jobs, led by states in the upper Midwest. Between 2010 and 2011, Michigan led the nation by creating 25,000 new industrial jobs with a heady 5 percent growth rate second only to Oklahoma. Wisconsin came in second with 15,000 new positions, and a growth rate of more than 3 percent. These gains may not come to close to making up the losses suffered over the past decade, but the growth is encouraging. Manufacturing employment brings higher wages to regional economies. In the Cincinnati area, the average factory job pays $61,000 a year—$15,000 more than the city’s average wage. This creates an outsized impact on the rest of the economy, from housing and retail to demand for business services. There are already significant shortages of skilled workers such as welders and machinists.

Jobs for college grads

Midwestern employers are projecting an 18.5% jump—the largest of any region—in the number of college graduates that will be hired this year. The new industrial economy creates considerable demand for those who can fill STEM (science, technology, education, and mathematics related jobs). Between 2009 and 2011, Michigan enjoyed the second strongest rate of STEM growth in the nation, just behind Washington, D.C.

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By keithbacker | Posted in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin | Also tagged , , | Comments (0)

Who Thinks Democrats Will Have A Record Turnout? Franklin & Marshall Apparently (EDIT: Or Maybe not)

June 8, 2012 – 8:47 am

August 16, 2012 Update:  I hotly complained about the voter registration breakdown in this Franklin & Marshall poll which was D: 50, R: 37, I: 12. While I knew the difference between “party registration” and “party ID” I found it unthinkable that a 13% voter registration advantage for the Democrats.  I was wrong. My complaints were due to the Democrat party ID in 2008 was Dem: 44, Rep: 37, Ind: 18 of D +7 — a record year for Democrats, and up from D: 41, R: 39, I: 20 or D +2 in 2004.  My criticism of the party registration in the Franklin & Marshall poll was unfounded.  Democrats in Pennsylvania continue enjoy a party registration advantage exactly as Franklin & Marshall survey.  Maybe more Democrats will cross over in 2012 and maybe reduced Democrat enthusiasm for Obama will keep them home, but as it stands Franklin & Marshall’s methodology is correct.

[Begin original post]

In a “Quick Hits” post Wednesday I linked to the Franklin & Marshall poll showing Obama with a commanding +12 point lead in Pennsylvania. Great news for Obama, right? Not so much it turns out. The internals in this poll tell a very different story such that despite the double digit lead, the poll should be of grave concern for the Obama campaign. Really.

A lot of things looked odd in the demographic breakdowns in the poll:

  • Despite the gender gap with men for Obama — he lost men by 1-point to McCain–in this poll he was beating Romney by +7
  • While most polls have Romney outpacing Obama on fixing the economy (or no worse than even), this poll has Obama up  +6
  • Among the all-important Independent voter, Obama leads by an incredible +22%

If those polling margins are accurate, not only will Obama win Pennsylvania, but he will probably win 400 electoral college votes.

Luckily for the Romney campaign, the oversampling of Democrats is so ludicrous it renders the Obama lead of +12 irrelevant as this poll fails in every way to reflect the likely turnout in November.

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By keithbacker | Posted in Pennsylvania | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , | Comments (4)

Pennsylvania ‘Definitely In Play’ — Former Pennsylvania Governor Democrat Ed Rendell

June 7, 2012 – 6:15 am

When you hear about a campaign surrogate “going off-message” know that simply means the surrogate committed the political crime of telling the truth. This applies whether it was Cory Booker and the truth about private equity, Bill Clinton on Mitt Romney’s stellar business credentials or now former Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell advocating extending the tax cuts set to expire at the end of the year. But thankfully for us, a guy who knows the Keystone State probably better than anyone in the country, was asked whether Barack Obama would win Pennsylvania:

The election will be determined by basically the four Philadelphia suburban counties … I tell people Governor Romney’s biggest liability in the primaries was that people really didn’t believe he was a conservative. His biggest asset in the general election is people really don’t believe he is a conservative. So will those moderate Republicans, conservative Democrats, independents in the Philadelphia suburbs vote for him because he is really a moderate who is going to govern in a moderate fashion? I don’t know. But I will tell you what I think in the end will determine how those people vote: one convention speech and maybe the first two debates. All the rest of it is noise.

The reporter, Sam Stein, asked again: “So bottom line, is Pennsylvania is in play?”

“Oh, it is definitely in play,” Rendell replied. He went on about how bizarre it was to read reports that Republicans weren’t making investments in the state. “Can’t be right. I mean why would you do that?” … “I think it is definitely in play,” he said again. “I said from the beginning, Mitt Romney is the only candidate who had a chance to do well enough in the Philadelphia suburbs to carry the state.

The suburban counties Rendell is referring to are: Bucks County, Chester County, Delaware County and Montgomery County

After the above sequence, Stein (an avowed Democrat who often has trouble hiding his disdain for Republicans) writes:

If Pennsylvania does indeed come down to the debates, the Obama campaign is in more political trouble than anyone envisions.

As we saw in the early posts regarding the divide between working class voters in Pennsylvania and Obama’s job killing policies on Keystone Pipeline and his war on coal, the state is ripe for a flip to the GOP so long as the Romney campaign turns it into a Battleground.

By keithbacker | Posted in Pennsylvania | Also tagged , , , | Comments (6)

Shale Revolution to Impact Battleground States

June 7, 2012 – 4:55 am

The technological advances in drilling coupled with the discovery of abundant shale in Appalachian Mountain states has the potential to change the financial fortunes of the entire region. The importance of shale to Battleground states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado was outlined in great detail by the Financial Times (of London):

The shale revolution is spreading into eastern Ohio, bringing with it the possibility of reviving an economy that has faltered since industrial jobs left the region. But along with that promise, the shale wave is also bringing with it an increasingly intense brand of election-year politics. The Utica shale stretching from western Pennsylvania into Ohio is thought to be rich in oil and natural gas liquids, such as ethane, and is attracting billions of dollars in investment from US and foreign companies.

Blue collar Democrats more concerned with jobs over environment:

Paul Sracic, at Youngstown State University, says the intense focus on shale development has the potential to make energy a big issue in what is the country’s key swing state. “Blue-collar voters were never that sold on environmental issues, and if some Democrats come across as not keen on economic development, it could lose them support here in Ohio,” he said. Mitt Romney…[has] made Barack Obama’s alleged stifling of the energy industry a centrepiece of their campaigns this year.

[Romney alleges] Obama’s delay of the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada is symbolic of his reticence to let the industry reach its full potential. [Pro-Romney] ads target Mr Obama for his refusal to approve the pipeline, restricting coal mining and using public funds to bankroll Solyndra, the solar energy company in California that later went bankrupt. Mr Romney has said he will approve the Keystone XL pipeline as soon as he wins office and curb the powers of the Environmental Protection Agency.

Non-Partisan groups are entering the fray:

The American Petroleum Institute, the industry lobby in Washington, is launching its own campaign this week to put energy at the centre of the election, although it does not directly advocate a vote for either candidate. Most of the 15 states where the API has been holding its meetings will be important battlegrounds for the presidential election, and in three of them – Ohio, Colorado and Pennsylvania – oil and gas are playing an increasingly important role in their economies.

Pennsylvania already seeing jobs:

Already, the boom in gas production in neighbouring Pennsylvania’s Marcellus Shale has created an estimated 2,000 jobs in the past 18 months in businesses providing services and equipment such as steel pipes. Vallourec of France has invested $650m to open a new steel mill in Youngstown.

By keithbacker | Posted in Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia | Also tagged , , , , | Comments (1)

The Battle for Pennsylvania

June 3, 2012 – 9:48 pm

Despite our enthusiasm for the prospects in the Keystone state, not everyone shares our excitement including, it would appear, the Romney campaign. However, considering the demographic changes in the state, Obama’s well documented difficulties with Pennsylvania-like voters in his “uncontested” primaries and controversies over anti-business decisions like scuttling the Keystone Pipeline or killing coal plants, Pennsylvania remains a hot topic for political watchers. The Washington Post takes and in-depth look at voter sentiment in the coal country foothills of Western Pennsylvania:

This is coal country, even if there’s hardly any coal anymore. Hidden in the brush are the ruins of the beehive ovens that turned coal into coke and blackened the skies along the western slope of the Alleghenies.

The big play now is natural gas. Fayette County, which borders West Virginia about an hour’s drive south of Pittsburgh, is in the heart of the Marcellus Shale. Civic leaders hope that fracking — the hydraulic fracturing of the shale rock to liberate the gas in its pores — can reverse the fortunes of this depressed region. This part of Pennsylvania is a political and economic battleground. It’s on the front line of America’s economic doldrums, and it is not incidentally a swing county in presidential elections.

John Kerry carried Fayette County in 2004, but four years later John McCain squeaked by Barack Obama. McCain’s margin, 25,669 to 25,509, represented barely enough voters to fill half a basketball court. No one would call Fayette a bellwether, but it represents one very vivid brick in the foundation of American political and economic life: the rural industrial region in a post-industrial age.

Party Affiliation Does Not Equal Party Voter:

This is an overwhemingly Democratic county by party affiliation, but it is politically conservative. It’s full of prototypical Reagan Democrats. That said, Obama has the lead in Pennsylvania polls and handily won the state four years ago. It’s not clear whether it’ll be as competitive as Ohio next door or some of the other swing states. But the president faces headwinds here. Fayette County’s unemployment rate is higher than the national average. And the memory of coal and the dream of gas will not help Obama as he mines votes in this part of Pennsylvania.

The administration has touted its support for natural gas drilling, but many people here see Obama as unfriendly to fossil fuels. They cite his blocking of the proposed Keystone pipeline in the Great Plains. They talk about the administration’s tougher regulations on pollutants from coal-fired power plants. They’re wary of environmentalists who view fracking as a threat to the water supply.

Antipathy Toward Obama is Strong:

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By keithbacker | Posted in Pennsylvania, The Battle for ... | Also tagged , , , , , | Comments (5)
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