Tag Archives: fundraising

Why Was Obama Fundraising in California 30 Days Before the Election? He Needed the Money

October 20, 2012 – 10:19 am

A lot of people wanted me to make hay out of the DNC needing a loan for the stretch run while the RNC was flush with cash. Don’t get me wrong, this is a huge political story but says a lot more about overall party finances than the actual Obama campaign. It’s a huge boon for Romney since his campaign has smartly partnered with the RNC while Obama has always run his own siloed campaign seperate from the DNC.  Also, the DNC has never had a large war chest (Go Debbie!) and Obama For America (the official campaign) had an impressive war-chest all along, regularly out raising the official Romney campaign. Tim Carney was all over the exaggerated claims of the Obama campaign being outspent by Romney back in June.

But interestingly, in May, June, and July Obama was spending much more money than he was taking in (the “negative burn rate”) giving rise to concerns he wouldn’t have money in the stretch run to match Romney’s onslaught. And remember, Obama’s last 2 months of supposedly enormous fundraising, slightly outpacing the combined efforts of the Romney/RNC are based on incredibly sketchy (to choose a word randomly) and possibly illegal practices.

And then Obama spent a few very public days in California in early October shaking the money tree rather than stumping on the campaign trail which I found curious.  It’s not that Romney isn’t occasionally off the campaign trail fundraising, he did a fly by in New York this past week but still managed to stay on the trail with major campaign stops in the Battlegrounds. Obama was MIA from a battleground standpoint and focused solely on raising money.

Now we see the Obama campaign took out loans from Bank of America in September to cover campaign expenses.  The Washington Free Beacon has the scoop:

Obama For America took out a $15 million loan from Bank of America last month, according to the campaign’s October monthly FEC report. The loan was incurred on September 4 and is due November 14, eight days after the election. OFA received an interest rate of 2.5% plus the current Libor rate…Obama has a complicated relationship with Bank of America. The bank contributed $20 million toward the cost of the Democrat National Convention earlier this year. Bank of America stadium, home to the Carolina Panthers, was supposed to host Obama’s acceptance speech. At the last moment, the campaign switched to a significantly smaller venue…It is unclear why the first $1 billion campaign needed an extra $15 million for the final two months of the campaign.

The Obama campaign is quick to tout its alleged $88.7 million cash on hand at September 1, but what gives with this $15 million loan 3 days later?  The Obama campaign also claims they were net cash flow positive in September raising $126 million and spending $115 million.  So that’s a net $11 million to add to their cash on hand. So why the loan?

Campaign loans are not new but there is usually a good reason for them.  Mitt Romney cleverly took out a $20 million loan in August to fund the last days of his “primary” campaign ahead of his official nomination at the Republican Convention which unlocked massive amounts of additional funds. But a loan during the general election from a campaign allegedly flush with cash?

Something smells very wrong with Obama for America’s cash flow between the illegal fundraising and this oddly timed loan.

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Romney Campaign Announces $170mm Raised in September

October 15, 2012 – 3:28 pm

This compares to the $181 million raised by President Obama through nefarious means.

The exact number was $170.48 million:

Mitt Romney and the Republican National Committee raised $170 million last month, about $11 million less than President Obama and his Democratic allies. Romney and various GOP committees say they have $191 million cash on hand. “Americans can’t afford four more years like the last four,” Romney finance chairman Spencer Zwick said in a statement. “Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are offering voters a vision for our country that will grow the economy, increase incomes, and bring relief to the middle class. That is why we are seeing such strong support from donors across the country.”

Last month, Obama and the Democratic National Committee raised $181 million — the highest monthly total for the Democratic campaign. Romney’s fundraising news comes as the GOP campaign hosts a three-day retreat for donors in New York City, featuring talks by Ryan and top Romney-Ryan campaign officials.

By keithbacker | Posted in General | Comments (10)

Quick Hits — Obama Fundraising Scandal

October 8, 2012 – 1:00 pm

This isn’t a Battleground State topic but I have blogged the fundraising for this election so I should at address this scandal in a cursory manner.  This subject could be hugely important to changing public perception on Obama’s trustworthiness and erode any soft support that is out there for Obama.  Importantly, many of the flaws outlined in the report were known by the Obama campaign and intentionally flouted while the same security measures were in place for Romney donors. Other people are doing a great job on this topic so I’ll highlight some choice write-ups:

Unsurprisingly Breitbart.com had the details up first on the 108-page GAI investigation into the threat of foreign and fraudulent Internet campaign donations in U.S. federal elections

This scoop builds on Breitbart.com’s earlier report that of $181 million in donation only 2% are “reportable”

Jim Geraghty over at The Campaign Spot blasted out some of the embargoed details on the illegal foreign contributions in his Morning Jolt

The Washington Examiner reports that 68% Of Traffic To Anonymously Registered Obama.com Is Foreign; the site was linked to a specific donation page on the official http://www.BarackObama.com campaign website for ten months

Instapundit has his usual invaluable links to key stories that I’m sure will be smartly updated as the scandal unfolds

Examiner.com reviewed the GAI report  and breaks down the nitty gritty in the scandal

The much rumored Newsweek/Daily Beat story on this scandal he been published

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The Cost of Political Ads

September 10, 2012 – 1:48 pm

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How Was Your Fundraising Month?

September 10, 2012 – 12:58 am

Just don’t ask the Obama campaign … because they won’t tell you until they are required to because just like the previous months, I’m sure the Romney campaign smoked Obama.  It was a slight negative burn rate which would be a huge negative months ago like when the Obama campaign was irresponsibly blowing through its cash, but now there are less than 60 days left in the campaign there is no reason to hold anything back. We previously blogged that Romney again cracked the $100 million mark in August fundraising but were lacking the specifics. Now they have been released and it is a record month:

Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign announced early Monday that it raised $111.6 million during the month of August, its single best month of the campaign and the third straight month it has raked in more than $100 million.

The total combines fundraising for the Romney campaign committee, the Republican National Committee and a joint fundraising committee between the two, and it tops the $105.9 million raised by those entities in June and the $101.3 million raised in July.

Romney’s campaign says the three groups have a combined $168.5 million cash on hand, meaning they spent about $17 million more than they brought in for the month of August. That’s not surprising of course as spending — particularly on TV ads — ramps up at the end of a presidential campaign.

President Obama’s campaign has not announced its August fundraising totals yet, but he has been significantly outraised by Romney over the last two months. Obama, the Democratic National Committee and their joint fundraising committee had $123.7 million cash on hand at the end of July.

UPDATE: Kudos to Team Obama but let’s see just how negative their burn rate was and how much cash they have on hand.

For the first time since April, Chicago has outraised Boston, with the Obama campaign and the DNC pulling in more than $114 million in the month of August, while Romney and his supporting Republican committees raised $111.6 million, National Journal/CBS’ Sarah Huisenga reports.

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Five Factors to Watch From Now Through Election Day — Today’s Must Read

September 8, 2012 – 2:19 pm

Despite the New York Times well documented bias, reporters like Jeff Zeleny do great work.  Below is his piece co-authored with Jim Rutenberg about the state of the race and what factors may ultimately determine the outcome in November:

The race could also still be influenced by unforeseen events, domestic or foreign, that could shape perceptions of the incumbent president and his challenger. Here are a few things to watch in the 58 days ahead, beginning with the electoral map. The roster of battleground states has not changed much, but one that Republicans had dearly hoped to put in play appears to have broken decisively: Pennsylvania. Mr. Romney spent time and money in the state, which went Democratic in the last five presidential elections, but Republican strategists now say it seems out of reach. Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes and is home to Mr. Romney’s running mate, Representative Paul D. Ryan, may offer Mr. Romney the best chance to expand his options. Republicans have not won there since 1984, despite fighting hard in almost every election. Wisconsin was not one of the eight states where the Romney campaign placed its first flight of general election ads late last week, but one party strategist said, “Keep watching.”

Debates and early voting

In a race that has featured little significant movement between the candidates, the three debates this fall are taking on even greater importance. For weeks, Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney have been preparing for their encounters on Oct. 3 in Denver; Oct. 16 in Hempstead, N.Y.; and Oct. 22 in Boca Raton, Fla. With each passing debate, millions of Americans will probably cast their ballot, given the rise of early voting and vote-by-mail in many Western states.

Mr. Romney may be a little further ahead in his preparations. His aides began putting blocks of debate-preparation time into his schedule shortly after he emerged from the primaries in the spring. He started formal practice sessions last week at a remote estate in Vermont, where Senator Rob Portman of Ohio played the role of Mr. Obama. Four years ago, viewership for the debates ranged from 52 million to 63 million people — a much bigger audience than the ones that tuned in to the conventions this year.

Ads and Messages

After spending the spring and summer trying to turn Mr. Romney’s success as a business executive from a positive to a negative, characterizing him as uncaring about the middle class, Mr. Obama’s aides and allies intend to graft their portrayal onto specific policy areas. Having intently studied the 2004 race, when President George W. Bush won re-election after defining Senator Kerry on his terms during the spring and summer, Mr. Obama’s advisers are convinced that the most crucial advertising period of the campaign is already over, and that they accomplished what they had to by introducing Mr. Romney to the nation as a rapacious capitalist.

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By keithbacker | Posted in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin | Also tagged , , | Comments (0)

Another $100 million Fundraisng Month

September 4, 2012 – 12:19 pm

Raising money isn’t the same as courting votes but it is a sure sign of relative enthusiasm for a campaign.  In 2008 when Obama outraised McCain by 2-to-1 you knew he had momentum on his side and it showed at the voting booth where Obama got outsized gains from often under-represented voting blocs.  This cycle, the momentum is clearly with the Romney team and the Obama camp isn’t just falling behind, they are burning through their campaign coffers at a record and precarious rate:

For the third straight month, the Romney campaign and supporting GOP committees raked in more than $100 million in fundraising in August, a GOP fundraising source confirms to CBS News. According to the source, the Romney campaign told donors about the monthly haul in Tampa at the Republican National Convention. According to the same source, the campaign thinks the total will be even higher in September.

In the aftermath of Romney’s announcement last month that he had tapped Republican Rep. Paul Ryan, of Wisconsin, to be his vice presidential running mate, the campaign boasted of a huge fundraising boost via Twitter. “$5 million raised, 70,000+ donations online since @MittRomney announced @PaulRyanVP,” wrote Romney press secretary Andrea Saul on August 12, the day after the official announcement.

Despite early predictions that President Obama would be running a billion-dollar campaign, the Romney campaign has outpaced the president in fundraising since May.

We won’t hold our breath waiting for the non-disclosure from the Obama campaign who will likely release their data at the last possible moment to hide the fact that they are getting schooled by Romney despite hosting more fundraisers than any candidate in history.

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Obama Outspent Romney by 3-to-1 Over the Summer and Can’t Pull Away — Must Read

August 22, 2012 – 11:16 am

That headlines is the conventional wisdom in the mainstream media, right? It’s not.  Every poll, even biased polls, says the race is no worse than even for Mitt Romney despite the unprecedented avalanche of negative ads from President Obama, the compliant water-carriers in the media, and a spending advantage like no one had ever seen before.  Yet the the write-ups in every poll release talks about the “trouble for Romney” underneath the headlines and Obama’s resilient likeability still buoying his campaign prospects.

Well, a lot of that is about to change.  We won’t ever get the media on our side, let alone be objective, but we can unleash ad campaigns the likes of which no general election has ever seen before and it appears the Romney campaign is just about ready to do that. The Boston Globe takes a long look at the inner workings of the Romney campaign’s finances and find a frugal, thrifty and focused campaign — much like what we should expect from a Romney White House –  ready to flip Obama’s spending advantage on its head:

Mitt Romney is heading into the final three months of the campaign with far more cash at his disposal than a sitting president known for his fund-raising prowess, a scenario that presents the Republican’s Boston-based campaign with a series of strategic and tactical opportunities that could provide a crucial difference as he enters the final stretch of a race expected to be razor-close.

The growing financial advantage, one that would have been hard to predict several months ago, comes after months of hoarding money as President Obama’s campaign spent heavily on television ads trying to brand Romney early in the minds of voters. But with a race that still appears tight, Romney’s campaign is now enjoying some of the rewards of withholding its money while being outspent — by about a 3-to-1 ratio — by the Obama campaign through the summer months. “That will be over soon,” said Stuart Stevens, a Romney senior adviser. “And the playing field will be more level.”

Unlike Obama, Romney seems to have been stockpiling money for the intense final months of the race. “If you have a financial advantage, which Romney does, it is important. It does give you more options,” said Tad Devine, a Democratic consultant who was a senior strategist for Al Gore’s and John Kerry’s presidential bids. “You’re able to do more things with your money.” But it’s not self-evident what those things ought to be. Romney could deepen his presence in the dozen battleground states where he has opened offices, hired field staffers, and intermittently run advertisements since the spring. Another way to exploit the advantage, Devine said, would be to try to make inroads in areas that are not part of the traditional Republican map and have not received the full force of Romney’s attention — states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania — and prompt Obama to spend more money to defend them.

Romney since the start of June has spent $25.8 million on ads, for example, while Obama has spent $77.6 million, according to data maintained by Kantar Media’s Campaign Media Analysis Group. But Romney spent much of the summer raising money, and saw his accounts balloon as the Republicans ended a bitter primary battle and began consolidating around Romney. Romney’s campaign has also launched an aggressive effort to utilize his new running mate, Paul Ryan, to raise new funds. The Republican’s presidential campaign last week announced a $10 million cash surge since Ryan joined the campaign. A memo from Matt Rhoades, Romney’s campaign manager, said 68 percent of donations were from new donors, and that the average donation was $81.

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Another Negative Burn Rate Month for the Obama Campaign

August 20, 2012 – 6:08 pm

As we expected would be the case after the Romney campaign released its July fundraising figures and the Obama campaign demurred stating they would only reveal their total at the filing deadline (today), it’s another negative burn rate month for the Obama campaign — it’s third straight. The details are just trickling in so I will update this post as the numbers come available, but the initial figures are very bad for Obama. Here is our post on Obama’s negative burn rates in May and June.

Obama for America raised $49.2 million in July and Spent $59.0 million. The top five expenditures last month were media buys ($39 million), online ads ($8.7 million), payroll ($2.9 million), payroll taxes ($1.2 million) and polling ($900,000).

Romney’s cash advantage now stands at $185.9 million to $123.7 million, at the end of July. Obama’s cash on hand figure is a decline from $144 million in June to $123.7 million at the end of July.

The $123.7 million figure is the combination of a few Obama campaign vehicles:

  • Obama campaign had $87.7M cash on hand at the end of July, down from $97 million last month. Debts owed by the campaign rose to $2.8 million.
  • Obama victory fund has $20.6 million although it also reported an outstanding debt of $5.5 million to BULLY PULPIT INTERACTIVE for online ads
  • The DNC cash on hand is $15.5 million, down dramatically from $37.5 million at  the end of June raising $9.9 million in July

Great “Cash on Hand” graphic from “FixAaron” at the Washington Post.

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Paul Ryan Announcement Raises $7.4mm in 72 Hours

August 14, 2012 – 4:35 pm

Per

Felicia Sonmez Felicia Sonmez ‏@feliciasonmez:– Political reporter and Election 2012 blogger for The Washington Post.

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Romney/RNC Outraises Obama/DNC in July: $101.3mm versus $75mm

August 6, 2012 – 10:35 am

For the third straight month the Romney camp has outraised the Obama camp and importantly were net cash positive for the month ending with cash on hand of $185.9mm up from $160mm at the end of June.  We don’t have the details on Obama cash burn but it will be HUGELY important if they had another month of negative cash burn rate:

Mitt Romney’s campaign and a joint fundraising committee with the Republican National Committee raised a combined $101.3 million during July, the Romney campaign announced Monday. This is the second consecutive month that Romney has raised more than $100 million in a month, having first broken his own monthly fundraising record in June by bringing in $106 million.

And, for the third month in a row, the Obama campaign was outraised by his Republican rival. The Obama campaign brought in $75 million last month, the campaign announced via Twitter.

Romney has had to play catch-up to Barack Obama, who had the luxury of being able to raise and spend directly against Romney while his Republican rival spent the better part of a year running for his party’s nomination and spending against his intraparty opponents. But since he became the presumptive nominee in April, Romney has been able to work with the RNC and they have been on a fundraising tear.

Additionally, July stats per campaign:94.13% of all donations were $250 OR less;$25.7 raised from 600,627 donations of UNDER $250.

Update: Bad sign for Obama’s burn rate

Asked how much cash the campaign had on hand — a key figure, as it indicates how much money the campaign is spending on a monthly basis — Obama campaign press secretary Ben LaBolt said they would release that figure when they file their report.

That is, Obama’s camp will release that figure only at the last moment they have to which is August 20.  You don’t do this if it is good news.

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Romney Out-Raises Obama in Ohio

July 25, 2012 – 12:06 pm

Money doesn’t equal votes on a 1:1 basis, but localized fundraising advantages do speak to noteworthy enthusiasm advantages that typically go to the incumbent. That is not the case this go-around:

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney continues to out-raise President Barack Obama in Ohio, according to the most-recent campaign-finance disclosures. Romney has raised $3.2 million in Ohio so far, including $410,993 in June, according to the reports. Obama, meanwhile, has raised $2.5 million in Ohio, including $292,416 in June. Nationally, though, Obama has a significant advantage — he has raised $300 million for his re-election bid nationally, compared to Romney’s $153 million.

Geographic homes: Romney = Cincinnati, Obama = Cleveland

Romney has drawn his most support from donors in and around Cincinnati — raising well over $1 million there. By comparison, Romney raised $422,190 in the Columbus metropolitan area, $825,539 from Cleveland, and $133,117 in Dayton. Obama, meanwhile, has fared best in the Cleveland area, raising $817,592 there, compared with $530,620 in Columbus, $606,153 in Cincinnati and $154,231 in Dayton.

Spending in the Buckeye state

Both candidates combined have spent about $1.5 million in Ohio — and that’s not counting the millions of dollars worth of airtime they’ve purchased on TV, money typically paid to a media buyer who in turn buys time on Ohio stations. Money from their campaigns has gone toward payroll, telephone services, rent and, in the case of Romney, $637,027 for Marquis Jet Partners, a private-plane company based in Columbus. Obama’s Ohio money, meanwhile, has mostly gone toward salary of his staff — $262,028 as of the end of June. He also spent $10,251 on his May 5 re-election kickoff rally at the Jerome Schottenstein Center at the Ohio State University.

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Democrats Getting Nervous Over Obama’s Negative Burn Rate

July 23, 2012 – 12:34 am

The negative burn rate of the Obama campaign has been one of the more important though lightly covered stories thus far in the early election season.  We blogged about it twice over the last two months when the data was released but little press has been devoted to this issue beyond the perfunctory story. That is changing as November draws close and the excessive spending is having little effect. The Wall Street journal drilled down on the specifics of this far more important story than most realize (note the spending in the state mentioned at the very bottom):

The president spent twice as much as Mr. Romney in June, as his campaign purchased more TV ads, paid more than twice as many employees and spent millions of dollars on public-opinion polls, federal records show. June was the second month in a row that Mr. Obama’s campaign dipped into the red, while the president was outraised by the Romney campaign. In May and June combined, the Obama campaign spent 20% more than it took in, records show. Mr. Romney and his party have now socked away more money than Mr. Obama and the Democratic National Committee. Mr. Romney banked $170 million as of June 30, compared with $147 million for the president. Mr. Romney also stands to benefit from spending by independent super PACs, which are free to collect contributions of unlimited size. These outside groups are expected to raise hundreds of millions of dollars for TV ads attacking Mr. Obama.

Campaign spending in June and since inception

June Obama Romney To Date Obama Romney
Employees 778 272 Employees 778 272
Payroll (mm) $2.9 $1.3 Payroll (mm) $25 NA
Media buys (mm) $38.2 $10.4 Media buys (mm) $72 $33
Polling (mm) $2.6 NA Polling (mm) $4* $1.6

* The Democrat National Committee has spent $11.3 million on polling since the start of 2011

A former Obama White House aide said the campaign’s spending runs “the risk of less money at the end and not having the money to do the level of advertising” given that the campaign has “an enormous paid nut every month.” In its mature phase, the Obama campaign has never been run on the cheap. Mr. Obama relies on paid field aides who recruit volunteers to fan out across neighborhoods, registering voters and drawing in more people to promote the cause.

Dick Harpootlian, chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party, said the campaign has had as many as eight or nine people working in his state, even though South Carolina is considered a strong bet for Mr. Romney. The Obama campaign says it has four paid field staff based in South Carolina and that they also perform campaign work in North Carolina, which is expected to be hotly contested.

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Negative Burn Rate (Again) — Another Major Bad Sign for Obama Campaign

July 21, 2012 – 1:28 pm

The latest report of monthly campaign fundraising and spending goes a long way to explain the plaintive cries for more money from Obama and his surrogates.  The pleas may be less related to any fundraising prowess of Romney and more the fact that the Obama campaign for the second straight month is spending more than it is taking in:

Competing fiercely to keep the presidency, Obama reported more than $46 million [raised] in June and total spending of $58 million. Romney, during the same period, reported receipts of $33 million and spending of $27.5 million for June.

June was the second consecutive month in which Romney brought in more money than Obama, finance reports filed Friday show. Much of Romney’s financial advantage – he raised $106 million last month with the help of the Republican Party – came from larger donations in a handful of battleground states. Those included Florida, where the Romney Victory Fund pulled in about $4.4 million in individual contributions, records show. Romney’s money advantage prompted Obama’s campaign advisers to warn earlier this month that the president could lose the election if the financial disparity continued. Obama tried to answer the super PACs supporting Romney by spending $38.2 million on television advertising. Romney spent less than a third of that – $10.4 million – on TV time.

The challenger’s cash on hand was almost a mirror image of Obama’s and the DNC’s, as Romney reported $22.5 million in the bank and the Republican National Committee said it had $89.4 million. Obama ended the month with a hefty $97.5 million in the bank. The Democratic Party reported $37.5 million in the bank.

The negative burn rate is deeply troubling ahead of the Fall campaign when both candidates can be expected to burn through all their cash. As I wrote last month on this development, “When you see this in Presidential primaries it is an almost certain sign that the candidate is about to flame out.  You rarely see this in Presidential general elections until the final months when candidates unload everything they have to win the race.”

Karl Rove helpfully brought out some comparable stats from the Bush 2004 re-election identifying months ago the very troubling Obama burn rate:

The final financial challenge facing Mr. Obama’s campaign is how fast it is burning through the cash it is raising. Compare the 2012 Obama re-election campaign with the 2004 Bush re-election campaign. Mr. Obama’s campaign spent 25% of what it raised in the second quarter of 2011, while Mr. Bush’s campaign spent only 9% in the second quarter of 2003. In the third quarter it was 46% for Obama versus 26% for Bush; for the fourth quarter it was 57% versus 40%. In January 2012 the Obama campaign spent 158% of what it raised, while the Bush campaign spent 60% in January 2004.

At the end of January, Team Obama had $91.7 million in cash in its coffers and those of the DNC. At the same point in 2004, the Bush campaign and Republican National Committee had $122 million in cash combined. The Obama campaign’s high burn rate doesn’t come from large television buys, phone banks or mail programs that could be immediately stopped. It appears to result instead from huge fixed costs for a big staff and higher-than-expected fund-raising outlays. These are much tougher to unwind or delay.

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Romney Heads to Pittsburgh on Tuesday

July 13, 2012 – 10:30 am

Although Pennsylvania has not always been the priority many of us hoped it would be, the Romney campaign has changed its tune of late and heads back to the state next week:

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney will campaign in Pittsburgh next week. Mr. Romney plans to attend a fundraising event, closed to the general public, Tuesday at the Duquesne Club. A spokeswoman for the campaign said she could not comment on whether the former Massachusetts governor also would appear at a public event while he is in the region. His visit follows President Barack Obama’s appearance last week at Carnegie Mellon University for a sun-scorched rally at the end of a bus tour through Ohio and Western Pennsylvania.

A local Republican official said the fundraiser at the Downtown club would be a three-tiered affair, with suggested contributions ranging from $2,500 to $50,000. The event will come a week after the GOP campaign announced one more in a series of robust monthly fundraising totals. Combined with the Republican National Committee, the Romney forces out-raised the combined haul of the Obama campaign and the Democratic National Committee for the second month in a row. The Romney total for June was $106 million compared with $71 million for Mr. Obama and his allies, although the Democratic campaign continues to hold an overall lead in contributions. According to figures compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics, the two candidates have raised similar amounts in Pennsylvania so far, with both reporting totals from state donors of just more than $3 million.

By keithbacker | Posted in Pennsylvania | Also tagged | Comments (1)

Fundraising for Romney is a Family Affair in Pennsylvania

July 12, 2012 – 5:07 pm

While Mitt Romney cannot be in all places at all times, he employs many surrogates as we have previously discussed.  Little mentioned is his mini-army of sons who do plenty of heavy lifting for the campaign:

Mitt Romney’s eldest son helped raise more than $400,000 for his father’s presidential campaign at a luncheon in downtown Lancaster on Tuesday, one of the most successful fundraisers here for a political candidate in modern history, party officials said. Tagg Romney’s appearance at the Lancaster Marriott at Penn Square was closed to the public, and the 42-year-old father of six was not made available to the media. During his 90 minutes here, he regaled supporters with stories — both telling and humorous — about his father. “It was one of the most successful, if not the most successful, fundraising events in Lancaster for any candidate, and I think it demonstrates the energy and the zeal to get Mitt Romney elected president,” said state Rep. Scott Boyd, chairman of the Lancaster County GOP. Romney took questions from many in the audience and tweeted following his appearance here and at two other events in Pennsylvania: “I got to attend 3 fundraisers for my dad today throughout central PA. It’s beautiful here, and it’s Romney country!” More than 100 supporters attended the event in Lancaster, Boyd said.

After his midday appearance here, Tagg Romney made an afternoon stop at a fundraiser for Romney Victory Inc. at the Berkshire Country Club near Reading and made an evening stop at the Lehigh Country Club near Allentown, according to published reports. The Romney Victory fund took in another $450,000 combined from the Allentown and Reading events, said Boyd. An invitation from Romney Victory Inc. stated that general admission tickets to a noon luncheon at the Marriott ran $500 each, and “bronze circle” tickets ran $1,000. Admission to a late-morning reception here ran from $2,500 to $10,000. Admission to the fundraisers in Allentown and Reading were similar.

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Romney Noses Ahead in Virginia … Fundraising

July 5, 2012 – 2:58 am

While we have our doubts about the Obama campaign’s claims of being the first incumbent President outspent by the challenger, Romney’s prowess in this area is undeniable.  Through June of this year, Mitt Romney regularly ventured into the all-important Battleground state of Virginia and hauled in more cash from major donors than the President:

[Mitt] Romney raised almost $2 million exactly to Obama’s $1.89 million, according to analysis from the Virginia Public Access Project, a nonpartisan tracker of money in state politics, and the Center for Responsive Politics. The vast majority of both candidates’ totals come from heavily populated Northern Virginia, where Romney outraised Obama $1.6 million to $1.3 million. Obama outraised Romney in the Richmond area $164,665 to $106,624. The totals do not include donations of less than $200, which the campaigns are not required to report. Small-dollar donors helped Obama build a massive fundraising advantage over Republican nominee John McCain in 2008.

In May alone, Romney outraised Obama by $156k

[For the month of May] Romney outraised Obama by $156,000 in Virginia donations of $200 or more. Romney raised $547,759 in the state from 515 donors to Obama’s $391,745, from 855 donors, according to the analysis. But Obama had significantly more small donors than Romney, with nearly 500 people donating less than $200 while Romney had about 200 small-dollar donors. Romney had 122 people donate the maximum of $2,500 in May, while Obama received 20 maximum donations in the state.

By keithbacker | Posted in Virginia | Comments (0)

Obama Weakness Showing in Philadelphia and Suburbs

July 2, 2012 – 9:44 am

A lot of press is picking up on the Daily Beast scoop of a plaintive Obama repeatedly pleading with donors to raise more funds for his campaign.  While that can be viewed cynically considering a number of his claims are demonstrably false, there is some truth to the underlying weakness embedded in such stories.  Fundraising woes in and around Philadelphia — Obama’s most important region in the state — highlight a very real problems for his re-election campaign:

President Obama’s main campaign fund has fallen considerably behind its 2008 pace in raising cash from the Philadelphia region. Mitt Romney’s campaign, meantime, is running well ahead of the pace set by Sen. John McCain’s four years ago. Recent reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission show that, as of May 31, Obama’s principal fund – Obama for America – had raised $2.84 million from individual donors in the eight-county area. That was well more than Romney’s haul, but 31 percent less than the $4.1 million Obama had taken in at a comparable point in 2008.

Romney took in $2.35 million through his Romney for President committee as of May 31 – $494,000 less than Obama. But he was doing almost twice as well as McCain’s campaign at a similar point in the election cycle. McCain’s fund, as of May 2008, had raised $1.25 million. The FEC data show that Romney’s biggest gains over McCain at this point in the cycle have been in Philadelphia’s Pennsylvania suburbs, where he has raised $1.89 million, doubling McCain’s $948,000 at a comparable point. [Romney leads Obama in the Pennsylvania suburbs with nearly $283,000 more.]

Contributions to Obama for America through May of this year were down across the board from four years ago – down 35 percent in the Pennsylvania suburbs, 27 percent in Philadelphia, and 14 percent in South Jersey.

Poll numbers may tell a different story, but they are a subjective measures that are easily biased based on the pollster — especially since credible polling is limited by accurately projecting election day turnout which is as much art as it is science.  However, the one true objective measure at this stage of an election cycle is fundraising.  And in this hugely important Battleground state that Obama won by 11 points in 2008, his fundraising is far below his level four years ago while Mitt Romney’s fundraising far outstrips John McCain’s over the same period — and that is very bad for the incumbent.

By keithbacker | Posted in Pennsylvania | Also tagged | Comments (0)

Obama’s Big Fundraising Lie

June 26, 2012 – 11:19 pm

The Obama campaign has been unusually vocal about the alleged certainty that Mitt Romney will be the first Presidential challenger to out-raise the incumbent (which isn’t true).  Something never felt right about these claims considering Obama raised $750 million dollars in 2008 and he had far more lead time (with no challenger) this cycle. Tim Carney in the Washington Examiner breaks down the truth behind Democrats fundraising advantage over Republicans in recent Presidential campaigns:

First of all, Obama’s campaign has raised much more money than Romney’s [see near right], it has spent more money than Romney’s, and it has more cash on hand than Romney’s, according to data from the Center for Responsive Politics.

But you can’t just count the campaigns. After all, when Obama hosts his $30,000-a-head fundraisers, he’s raising money for his campaign and the DNC — and the DNC is spending that money basically to re-elect Obama. On the national committees, Obama is beating Romney, too[see far right].

So, although Obama claims “I’m talking about the Romney campaign itself. Those outside groups just add even more to the underlying problem. The Romney campaign raises more than we do,” that seems to rely on an interesting definition of the word “raises.” They mean, in a minority of months, Romney raises more than Obama. At most, Obama can claim he’ll be outspent by counting outside money. This may or may not end up being true. But if that’s his method of counting, then he’s also clearly not telling the truth in this email, because he claims “I will be the first president in modern history to be outspent in his re-election campaign….” But if you count outside money, Bush was outspent in 2004.

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By keithbacker | Posted in General | Also tagged , , | Comments (2)

Nevada GOP: The Ugly, the Bad and the Good

June 24, 2012 – 8:27 am

We have previously covered the disaster that is the state GOP in Nevada due to its overrun by Ron Paul acolytes. Thankfully there is its far more competent and reliable splinter group: Team Nevada. Jon Ralston in the Las Vegas Sun breaks down the on-the-ground problems for the GOP in his latest column:

End of Nevada GOP as we know it, money edition:

The Democrats have raised more than $2 million this year for their federal PAC, mostly ($1.7 million) from transfers from the Democratic National Committee and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee that have been poured into a field operation that worked so well in 2008 for the president and 2010 for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. The Democrats have about $653,000 cash on hand. The state GOP has raised about $188,000 and has $167,000 on hand, with only $41,000 from the national committees.

$1.7 million to $41,000. Those numbers don’t lie. Caveat: Team Nevada (not the state GOP) will get nearly all of the national committee money.

End of GOP as we know it, base-problem edition:

Nevada is unique in that its ballots have a “none of the above” option. The GOP fears that this protest vote option could hurt Romney because the anti-Obama sentiment is strong but the reflexive pro-Romney default option is weak.  With Nevada’s “none of the above” above options, many Romney votes may be lost with this protest vote option on the ballot.  As such, the Republican National Committee has joined a lawsuit to get this option removed from the ballot. Add in former New Mexico Gary Johnson on the ballot as the Libertarian candidate and the GOP may have a real problem in a squeaker election. This has foiled the GOP before. In 1998, future Senator John Ensign lost to present Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid by 428 votes. The Libertarian candidate, Michael Cloud, received 8,044 votes and “None of these candidates” took 8,125.

End of Nevada GOP as we know it, silver lining edition:

In recent election cycles the quality of Democratic operatives has been far superior to the Republican talent. But for the first time in memory, the GOP has a team that is worthy of being on the same playing field. Team Nevada, however, is stocked with experienced state officials. The RNC’s Darren Littel and Kristin Vieira both have plenty of state experience; Sen. Dean Heller’s chief of staff, Mac Abrams has plenty of major campaign expertise; Chris Carr, a former Nevada GOP staffer turned RNC operative and on the ground here; lesser-known folks such as Ryan Cherry, a Heller veteran, and Joe Catania, a field guy for Nevada candidates and now with Team Nevada; and skilled campaign types such as Mike Slanker (Heller), Ryan Erwin (Rep. Joe Heck) and microtargeter Billy Rogers helping GOP state Senate candidates, who could help turn out base voters. Add in a Hispanic outreach effort – hey, guys, maybe we should talk to Latinos this year! – that has money and bodies and a full integration of all these working parts and this Republican Party – that is, Team Nevada – can compete with the Democratic machine.

The GOP is not a shadow of its former self [but] the shadow is better than its former self.

By keithbacker | Posted in Nevada | Also tagged , , , , | Comments (0)

Negative Burn Rate — Major Bad Sign for Obama Campaign

June 20, 2012 – 7:45 pm

There was plenty of buzz around the fact that Mitt Romney and the RNC outraised Barack Obama and the DNC in May.  While that was an interesting data point, there were reasonable and mitigating (John Kerry outraised Bush around the same period in 2004) explanations for such an event. However, we now find out that the Obama campaign spent more than they raised in the month of May– a major no-no:

President Obama’s re-election campaign ended the month of May with $109 million in its war chest down, from $115 million at the end of April. They raised $39 million but spent $44.5 million along the way.

This is what you call a “negative burn rate,” where an enterprise (in this case a political campaign) is spending more money than it is taking in.  When you see this in Presidential primaries it is an almost certain sign that the candidate is about to flame out.  You rarely see this in Presidential general elections until the final months when candidates unload everything they have to win the race.  Obviously Obama spent this money in an effort to discredit Romney before the race seriously got under way.   Unfortunately for him, everyone knows the race is no better than a dead heat for him. These facts combine into a major bad sign for the floundering Obama campaign.

UPDATE: While the Obama campaign was spending more than it raised, the Republican National Committee fundraising in the month of May was reportedly the most in its history.  And  surpassed all of fundraising for 2001 by June 15th of this year.

By keithbacker | Posted in General | Also tagged | Comments (5)

Mitt Romney in Ohio Thursday

June 13, 2012 – 5:09 pm

Ohio is one of the two “ground zero” states in this year’s Presidential election. We see in most every campaign spending breakdown Ohio is at or near the top of both campaign’s priorities no matter how you slice it. Both candidates will be in the state tomorrow as Obama will be in Ohio on Thursday, at Cuyahoga Community College in Cleveland. As for Romney, in addition to the three stops in Ohio Romney will make on his bus tour this coming Sunday, he will also visit the state tomorrow before he kicks off that tour:

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is scheduled to visit a southwest Ohio manufacturing business Thursday. Romney will speak to employees of Seilkop Industries, 425 West North Bend Road, which is five individual companies specializing in aluminum sand casting die making, pattern making and metal stampings.

Among those five companies is Hamilton Precision LLC, a Hamilton-based company specializing in burnouts, roll grinding and roll repair. The former Massachusetts governor’s campaign has a fundraiser set for tonight at the Cincinnati Netherland Plaza Hotel.

By keithbacker | Posted in Ohio | Also tagged , | Comments (0)

Quick Hits

June 12, 2012 – 2:42 am

President Obama, Mitt Romney and other federal candidates can immediately start collecting contributions through text messaging services.

A new initiative called “I Vote Israel” is encouraging Americans living in Israel (Jews and non-Jews) to register and vote absentee.

Obama heads to Michigan this week — events are planned statewide through Friday.

Virginia Senator Mark Warner disagrees with Obama, says private sector not doing fine.

Obama tells Wisconsin TV station he was too busy to march with unions in the Wisconsin recall — no follow-up question about the 6 fundraisers next door.

Speaking of Wisconsin, apparently it was a win for Democrats according to DNC Chairman Howard Dean…no, really.

Obama to take another stab at the state of the economy in a speech Thursday in Cleveland, OH — that should be fun.

By keithbacker | Posted in General, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin | Also tagged , , , , , | Comments (0)

Batlleground Quick Hits: Virginia, Michigan, Nevada, $$$$$ and more

June 7, 2012 – 3:29 pm
By keithbacker | Posted in Michigan, Nevada, Virginia | Also tagged , , , , , , | Comments (1)

Quick Hits Around the Battleground

June 6, 2012 – 10:42 am

Nevada Republicans Work Around State Party — More on the lackluster state party that spawned Team Nevada even before the Ron Paul takeover

Nevada GOP political director seeks to unify Romney, Paul factions — New state head from Utah looking for reconciliation between warring factions within the party

Obama holds onto lead in Pennsylvania — New Franklin & Marshall poll shows Obama with a 12 point lead but support is still below 50% for the President

Colorado ballot measure on marijuana to impact Presidential contest — Both candidates oppose legalization but in a close race, perception for or against one candidate can tip the scales

Ohio Senator Rob Portman and Potential Romney VP Meets Netanyahu, Barak in Israel — Note this is the type of trip Joe Biden took to Russia before getting the nod from Obama

Obama outraised Romney in Virginia in April — Neither candidates total is all that much but it is noteworthy

Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, another Potential VP, See Boost for Romney in Wisconsin — McDonnell was on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” talking up the Wisconsin results

Wisconsin now tougher for Obama, but still uphill climb for Romney — 12 hours later the reality settles in that Democrat spin on misleading exit polling doesn’t hold up

By keithbacker | Posted in Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin | Also tagged , , , , , , , , | Comments (2)

Ohio Campaign Strategies Taking Shape

June 2, 2012 – 6:14 pm

The two most important states in this election are Virginia and Ohio. If one candidate carries both states they almost certainly will will the overall election.  Such is the critical nature of these two Battleground states.  The respective campaign strategies for each candidate is taking shape and not without more than a few surprises. Each campaign vows to find every conceivable vote no matter the location, even in places traditional campaigns often fear to tread.

Consistent with most Battleground states, the President has a head start:

Obama had 18 field offices open in Ohio before Romney’s first. But Romney had eight field offices open this week, half of them in southwest Ohio, with six more expected to open within 10 days, including one in Centerville.

Playing on enemy turf:

Campaign offices for Obama are popping up across the Dayton-Cincinnati region, and some of the sites come as a relative surprise, as they’re in heavily Republican territory. More than 60 people crowded into a steamy storefront Tuesday night, opening an office in downtown Troy despite the fact that Republicans have dominated recent presidential votes in Miami County. Obama has five field offices in Dayton and the surrounding area, and the Troy office is not the only one in a Republican stronghold, as Organizing for America is also established in Beavercreek and Mason. [Obama has] few illusions about beating Romney outright in places like Miami or Warren counties, they do hope to narrow the gap by a few thousand votes. In Miami County, the Democratic Party didn’t even put anyone on the March primary ballot for the nine countywide offices up for grabs this fall.

Al Gore John Kerry Barack Obama
Miami County 36 34 35
Warren County 28 28 31
Greene County 38 38 40

The Obama campaign is focused on identifying neighborhood-level leaders, calling the one-on-one and small-group connections they make invaluable. Studies have shown those individual contacts can have a big effect, even in this era of saturation media ads.

Christopher Maloney, the Ohio director of Romney’s campaign, “accepted long ago” that Obama would open more offices and hire more staff, but he said the Romney camp is prepared to fight. “We’re going to match them volunteer for volunteer, call for call and door-knock for door-knock,” he said.

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By keithbacker | Posted in Ohio | Also tagged , , , , , , | Comments (3)

Political Hit Pieces I Hope are True

May 30, 2012 – 1:39 pm

Politico.com writes a hard hitting piece warning of the “scary” amounts of money being raised and spent by GOP-friendly, non-campaign groups to sway voters in the coming election. In addition to the headline grabbing fundraising numbers, I love their phrasing throughout the article which reads like a war correspondent in a losing battle (as if there was a question which side Politico is on in this race). Here is one of their hard-hitting “scoops”:

POLITICO has learned that Koch-related organizations plan to spend about $400 million ahead of the 2012 elections – twice what they had been expected to commit.

And what will those dastardly Kochs spend this money on?

[F]unding to build sophisticated, county-by-county operations in key states…In targeted states, the groups’ activities will include TV, radio and digital advertising; voter-turnout work; mail and phone appeals; and absentee- and early-ballot drives.

Ummmmm, yes please!

Now, some of this is news and Politico does some very helpful reporting on the focus areas of the different groups:

  • American Crossroads and Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies (GPS) — two-thirds of their spending on advocacy related to the presidential race, and the rest relating to House and Senate races.
  • U.S. Chamber of Commerce — congressional races, with the House as the top priority – what organizers call “the first insurance policy” if Obama were to get reelected.
  • YG Action Fund — started by aides of Eric Cantor and Kevin McCarthy. No focus area identified. Notably this PAC backed Indiana Senator Richard Lugar’s losing primary.
  • American Action Network — congressional races but also backed Lugar in the primary.
  • Congressional Leadership Fund — Speaker John Boehner’s group. No focus area mentioned.
  • Restore Our Future — Presidential general election solely for Mitt Romney
  • FreedomWorks — backed challengers in GOP congressional primaries with a focus on issue advocacy, campaign ads and organizing
  • Republican Jewish Coalition — largest, most expensive, most sophisticated outreach effort ever undertaken in the Jewish community
  • Club for Growth — congressional races

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By keithbacker | Posted in General | Also tagged , , , , | Comments (0)
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