Tag Archives: deportations

Battleground Demographic: Hispanics

I know I have devoted a lot of blog space to the Hispanic vote but they will have a meaningful impact in a number of Battleground states.  Currently both campaigns are fully engaged in a battle for the attention and ultimately the vote of the fastest growing demographic in the US.  Devin Dwyer at ABC News picks up on this increasingly popular campaign Battleground:

President Obama, Republican nominee Mitt Romney and their respective allies are kicking off summer with a push to court Hispanic voters in states where Hispanics could play a decisive role in November’s election.

Obama draw first blood:

Priorities USA Action, the pro-Obama super PAC, and Service Employees International Union, one of the nation’s largest labor groups, joined the fray Monday with a $4 million Spanish-language TV ad campaign attacking Romney’s economic experience. The 30-second spot — “Mitt Romney: En Sus Propias Palabras” — is reported to be one of the largest-ever independent Spanish-language presidential ad campaigns. It will run in Colorado, Nevada and Florida, the group said. Obama for America, the president’s re-election committee, has been on the air in the same states since late April. It has run three flights of Spanish-language TV ads that feature Hispanic supporters testifying to the positive impact of Obama’s first-term policies.

Romney enters the fray:

Meanwhile, Romney and Republicans have stepped up their appeals to what is the nation’s fastest-growing voting bloc, launching a national Hispanic outreach effort led by Carlos Gutierrez, who served as Secretary of Commerce under President George W. Bush. The push includes a series of web and TV ads with an economic pitch.

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Who Killed the 2007 Immigration Reform Bill? Senator Barack Obama

Despite being the President who has deported the most illegal aliens in history–a policy hugely unpopular with Hispanics–Barack Obama is the strong preference among Hispanics in the 2012 election. They may not be overly enthusiastic about Obama but they aren’t running to Mitt Romney yet either. however, despite Barack Obama’s statements to the contrary, he has not always supported comprehensive immigration reform.  In fact, he worked vigorously to kill it in 2007.  Bill McGurn in the Wall Street Journal recounts how Obama injected himself into the 2007 legislative sausage making and jumped on a “poison pill” amendment that killed immigration reform:

The short story is that the immigration bill was the work of a small, bipartisan group of senators. Late in the game, Mr. Obama joined the process, where he asked for (and received) changes in the bill. Yet when the legislation moved forward, Mr. Obama backed a series of poison-pill amendments. One was pushed by Sen. Byron Dorgan (D., N.D.) to weaken the guest-worker program. Sen. Ted Kennedy (D., Mass.) was outraged because he knew this amendment was really organized labor’s effort to kill the immigration bill, not to help workers. “Who is the senator from North Dakota trying to fool?” Mr. Kennedy snapped from the Senate floor.

Mr. Obama voted “yea” on the Dorgan amendment. We know he knew it was a deal-killer because several senators had said so (Sen. Jim DeMint, who had voted “nay” on an earlier version, switched his vote for precisely that reason). Thus Mr. Obama pulled off a trifecta: appeasing Big Labor while telling Latinos he supported the bill and blaming Republicans for its failure…What makes Mr. Obama’s 2007 Senate vote so galling—and different from that of others who voted the same way—was that his support for the poison pills betrayed the bipartisan group of senators who had let him in on the writing of the bill.

By no means was the death of immigration reform done at the hands of only the then-Senator from Illinois.  But he was a principal in the unraveling of the most successful effort to that point. Having not lifted a finger on behalf of Hispanics since entering the White House while achieving record-breaking deportations, Hispanics have a lot to think about in November before backing the immigration reform killer again.

The Fight for Colorado’s Hispanic Vote

When looking at Colorado it is hugely important to remember that Barack Obama won the state by winning the white vote, not the Hispanic vote.  Thankfully the WSJ mentions the hugely important fact that McCain actually eroded Democrat support among Colorado Hispanics in 2008 compared to 2004–contrary to what the Obama campaign would have you believe.

Unfortunately, if you click on the actual article, the Wall Street Journal devotes ~75% of the ink to Obama and mentions pro-Obama arguments throughout while mentioning “oh by the way” Romney would like to talk about the bad economy and the unusually high unemployment for Hispanics, but we’ll go back to writing more about Obama. Also, despite the reflexive mention of negative opinions on immigration any time a reporter mentions Romney and Hispanics, no where is there any mention of Obama’s huge unpopularity with Hispanics over dramatically increased deportations.  They also mention multiple times a national poll showing Obama’s continued support among Hispanics but never mention those same polls show the key weakness Obama is worried about — Hispanics are unenthusiastic about Obama.  Do you think maybe the deportation issue might be affecting Hispanic enthusiasm? Since that would hurt Obama, we’ll just leave it out while making certain to mention the overwhelming Obama preference many times. The slanted journalism is pretty ridiculous. Despite the pro-Obama shading throughout, there is a lot of good data in the article:

Both sides say Colorado, with its nine electoral votes, is up for grabs, and likely to come down to a few thousand votes. Mr. Obama got 67% of the Latino vote nationally in 2008, up sharply from the 53% the last Democratic nominee, Sen. John Kerry, garnered in 2004. But in Colorado, Mr. Obama’s share was 62%, a number his campaign hopes to boost to 70% this year to offset signs of wobbly support among young voters, independents and moderates. Recent surveys in the state show the race to be close, well within the polls’ margin of error, even with Mr. Obama preserving a strong edge among Hispanics. Obama’s challenge among Hispanics is pretty simple: overcoming apathy — while nearly a fifth of the population, Hispanics in Colorado typically make up just over a tenth of the electorate. The Obama health-care overhaul, tuition assistance for college students, the reduction of ATM fees—these are some of the top themes that resonate with fence-sitting Hispanics, according to an Obama supporter.

Consistent with every other state, the Romney campaign–having only recently secured the nomination–is beginning its general election roll-out:

The team backing the presumptive Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, is just getting started and rolled out his national Hispanic leadership team this week slamming President Obama repeatedly—including in a new Spanish-language Web ad—for the high national jobless rate among Hispanics, now at 11%, compared with 8.2% overall. The nascent Romney campaign here sees Colorado as particularly promising, noting that it was the one battleground state where GOP nominee Sen. John McCain picked up a larger share of Hispanic support in 2008 than President George W. Bush had in 2004, according to exit polls. “We intend to do whatever we can to build on that,” said James Garcia, who ran the McCain campaign in Colorado and was dispatched from Boston last month to do the same for Mr. Romney. So far, the campaign has two offices in the state.

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