New NBC-Marist polls released this morning show the Mountain West swath of Battleground states are anybody’s to win:
These three states are all battlegrounds that Obama carried in 2008, but George W. Bush won in 2004. “These are very, very competitive states,” says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted these polls. “Everything is close.”
- The Nevada poll gives Obama a 2 point lead 48 to 46 with 5% Undecided.
- The Colorado poll gives Obama a 1 point lead 46 to 45 with 8 % Undecided.
- The Iowa poll is dead even at 44 to 44 with 10% Undecided.
Bottom line: Fairly consistent results confirming most everyone’s suspicions, right now this race is wide open.
Normally I would have an issue with the party ID of the sampling like in the previous Ohio (D +9) and Florida (D +8) polls that oversampled Democrats. But these polls are fairly balanced (D +2 in Nevada and R +1 in Iowa) with a slight oversampling of Republicans in Colorado (R +4). Overall a fairly good sampling of registered voters.
Update: Great comment by Jon Ralston of the Las Vegas Sun on MSNBC. he points out that the Nevada poll was comprised of 19% Hispanics. Ralston thinks that is a meaningsul over-sampling of a Pro-Obama group meaning Obama is likely behind in that state. It is important to remember Ralston is a big ol’ lefty but also a good reporter. He was all over the hidden strength of Harry Reid during a difficult re-election in 2010 when outsiders had that race called wrong from start to finish.
Update II: The National Journal identifies some intriguing takeaways from these results:
- Iowa: Obama’s 46% approval rating is little different than the 45% in January. 70% of voters say the economy is the #1 issue and favor Romney 46 – 41 in this area.
- Colorado: In the all important “likely voter” category, Romney flips the one point deficit in Colorado and takes a one point advantage.
- Nevada: Obama lags his 2008 performance in every race sub-category. In 2008 Obama won 43% of whites vs 38% today, 94% of blacks vs 89% today, and 76% of Hispanics vs 67% today.
Lastly, in the Colorado discussion, this observation stood out:
Just 45 percent of Colorado voters approve of the job Obama is doing as president, while 49 percent disapprove. A majority, 56 percent, say the country is on the wrong track, compared to only 38 percent who say the nation is headed in the right direction.
Those are horrible numbers for the President. If those figures don’t materially change by November, Barack Obama will lose the Presidency by a large margin.
