NBC/Marist released a few polls this morning and New Hampshire is a dead heat while President Obama holds a four point lead in Michigan 47 – 43. Included in the survey was North Carolina which Obama surprisingly led 46 – 44 (although based on party ID it is almost as if this was a poll of North Carolina DNC members). Party ID for all three after the jump.
NBC-Marist surveys conducted June 24-25
| New Hampshire | Michigan | North Carolina | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barack Obama | 45% | 47% | 46% |
| Mitt Romney | 45% | 43% | 44% |
| Undecided | 8% | 10% | 9% |
Plenty of interesting take-aways underneath the headlines:
- First, the President again fails to crack 50% in any Battleground state polls. This is really bad for an incumbent.
- Two of the states in this survey — New Hampshire and Michigan — were state Obama won by double digits in 2008 and now they are toss-ups
- President Obama’s approval also fails to crack 50%, and “approval” is a fairly good predictor of popular vote count on election day.
- A majority of voters in each state say the country is headed in the wrong direction
Party ID was a bit of a mess, especially in North Carolina.
