New Hampshire remains a sneaky pro-Romney state within the Battleground context. I’m your typical jaded conservative in the Northeast frustrated with the reflexive liberal bent to this region. New Hampshire is that last holdout and I have to say this election far more than any other in recent memory every time I look at the state I really think it is going to break for Romney. The voters know him well due to its proximity to Boston and Obama’s activist policies don’t mesh well with the “Live Free or Die” state making it ripe for the taking. The latest from American Research shows Mitt Romney with a slender 2-point lead, 49 to 47. Independents are dead even 48 to 48 and that’s an important voter group often accounting for over 40% of the New Hampshire electorate.
The party ID is R +6 (Dem 29, Rep 35, Ind 36). In 2008 it was also D +2 (Dem 29, Rep 27, Ind 45) and in 2004 it was R+7 (Dem 25, Rep 32, Ind 44). This poll is very low on Independents and too high on Republicans. It is within the 2004 and 2008 bounds but still a bit too many Republicans. I’d prefer something closer to R +2. Obama is stumping in the Granite state so his poll numbers must be showing not much different in this poll.