It all comes down to that. Stay safe everyone. I’m going to bed.
very early meaning at poll closing time?
yes…soon after the poll closes…which is 1900 hours I think
Yes, VA polls close at 7:00 pm EST. If they call the race by 7:15-7:30 it is a very good sign.
if that’s the case romney will win PA
I want Ohio to go Romney, I dont wantt to have to rely on PA
what time va polling close
Va closes at 7PM
Virginia polling closes at 7 pm EST.
Man, there is going to be hell to pay if/when Obama loses. The pollsters and poll analysts and Dem pundits and mainstream media have gone way out on a limb supporting the Obama Re-elect meme.
heads will roll for sure…Nate Silver will have to go into witness protection
Dems “cautiously optomistic” means their internal polls arent showing a lead
I think that most Dems are convinced that Obama is going to win. They believe in their election model and GOTV program. Maybe they have some doubts and are a little nervous, but I am a Romney supporter and feel the same way.
yes..I am optomistic..but concerned about turnout…that is what it comes down to…turnout
“I think that most Dems are convinced that Obama is going to win.”
Maybe most, but not the guys who know.
Pretty easy to see on Obama today.
He looked and sounded like a guy who rather be just about anywhere else than on that podium.
meaning that I feel the same way about the Republican election model and GOTV effort.
well we know their model is wrong…
Yes, but by how much? They can be wrong a point or two in Dem party id and still slide by.
Down 10% in Cuyahoga, and down 30% in Franklin county in Ohio in EV.
The Dems are gonna get pummeled today in Ohio.
thats the 64 dollar question…my guess is a couple of points..maybe more
there will be a riot
we have more guns
A bunch of the so-called experts will say that they always acknowledged that Romney could win; the polls have margins of errors; the models were only off a smidge and that was enough to give Romney the victory. But most will be absolutely stunned.
Silver was already hedging his bets some….but everything will have to be redone..how they poll…how they read polls..a cleasning
Some Dems will console themselves by looking to the Senate races. Hopefully, Romney wins big and has coattails.
senate is secondary…Reid will be neutered…
270 million I love it
I am going to get a gun
if obama wins america will fall
Billy, go to bed.
heh how are u ?
Just watching the Romney rally in NH. People keep yelling out “we love you Mitt!” We really seem to have the enthusiasm this time around. Can’t ever remember anyone yelling “we love you John McCain!”
Or we love you George…lol
McCain was a worthy candidate. He was just too old. Had he handled the financial crisis much better in October, then he might have won more votes. Romney might have been up to that particular challenge.
People forget that Bush was a very popular Repub candidate in 2000; he had to be in order to knock off Gore who was the sitting VP. Fortunately Gore was a wooden personality, and we can all see what an egomaniac he was and is.
No way could any republican have won in 2008 after bush fatigue and the markets. The markets are what really sealed the deal for Obama in 2008. Contrast McCain to Obama at the time, old guard vs new guard..picture of youth and hope and change vs picture of more of the same. McCain could have been seen as a strong foriegn policy leader but that rarely wins elections. And then there was Sarah…
Dave +1. National mood would have crushed any Repub in 2008. Could have put a sock puppet with a “(D)” after its name up against either McCain or Romney that year and the sock puppet would have won. This is the right time for Romney.
This is just amazing. The early voting numbers are nothing like the polls said.
To me there really isn’t any better indication of the disconnect between the mainstream narrative and reality than Nate Silver projecting the odds of Obama winning at 92%, Obama on the eve of that supposed win failing to keep himself from actually weeping during his speech, and the Obama campaign putting a version of the video up on their official Youtube channel with all the awkward moments and times when he wiped his eye or clenched his jaw cut away to the crowd.
If he was emotionally moved by his own speech, or the emotions he was putting into it, then those moments are precisely the ones the Obama campaign would want to highlight, not cut away to the crowd from.
Maybe he’s weeping because he feels so confident… 92% is a pretty good chance of winning after all. /sarcasm
I don’t know if it embedded that video into your browser like it is showing up in my post for me but I didn’t intend to do that. I only meant to put in the url.
Can’t stand to watch Obama. Hate him.
It’s not that serious. but, I am not going to watch those fake tears.
Did he weep in 2008 when he knew he was going to win? The guys tired, emotions are on the surface, it is his last campaign regardless…and he has come a long ways…maybe that’s some sentiment to get choked up about but not the kind of thing you’d expect from someone that thought he was going to win with 94% certainty.
So much at stake here. Does the US continue its decline into becoming another Greece? Is the Republican party still relevant? We’ll all find out soon….
The Republican party will be relevant regardless. Repubs are expected to maintain their hold on the House. Maybe gain or lose a few seats.
The US will continue its decline no matter who is elected today. Romney will be marginally better, of course. But we still have too much government, corporate and private debt to stir demand and increase growth. Deleveraging must continue and it won’t be pretty for many years to come.
in the next installment of day of our lives muhahah
Obama won Hart’s Location. Obama 23, Romney 9, Gary Johnson 2
Just watched the 5pm eastern news on CNBC. Their pundit (Fordham University professor, female, African American) was repeating the Mainstream Media party line that Obama is heavily favored to win. Acknowledged that Romney might win Florida and Virginia. Said that winning PA or OH would be a positive sign for Romney. Positive sign? If he wins either, then he pretty much gets to 270.
Sort of funny how nothing changes on drudgereport during the wee hours. One would think that he is making millions per year, and can afford to have his staff make regular updates through the night.
He has virtually no staff and he likes his sleep.
I have noticed that too.
I have been looking at Washington state. It looks to me from the numbers [ I gave the Reps a 4% swing per county] that Gov Romney is on course to do better than George Bush did in 2004 against Gore and Ralph Nader took 4.1% of the total vote. My best guess is a swing of 8.66 in the state. Now, as you can see I ONLY gave Romney a 4% swing. What could it mean? A bigger turnout for Gov Romney.
Aside from the ballot issues in WA that favor libs and could really bring them out, a moderate Romney seems like just the kind of guy, the same people that are voting for any republican gov, would love.
You may want to screenshot/save your favorite websites to analyze after the election, especially with polls in the event of a Romney win, because some sites may change from what they actually said before the election to what they say they said before the election. Revisionist history, etc…
+1. Seen the media do it before. Screenshots advisable.
virginia is gone check breitbart. I think the election is over Romney wins.
looks like an early night
vote still. We need the Senate!!!!!
Local radio in Northern Virginia is giving reports of huge lines at Virginia polling places now (they opened at 6:00).
this is democrat or republican territory?
Sounds like a lot of republican rural areas reporting in, but they also noted that larger lines than expected are also in Alexandria (democrat). Person after person is saying that they have never seen lines like this.
I thought northern virginia was democrat
Yes it is, but people are calling and telling the radio station what they are seeing over a pretty large area away from the core DC suburbs. So it sounds like a good turn out for the good guys so far.
yes I can vote the governer of New York gave an executive order saying I can vote any polling place
Keith, thanks for this great site. I pray that our great country will be blessed for a Romney/Ryan victory to take our country back. Get out and vote! We’ll be together tonight watching America’s turn-around.
Don’t spend all day obsessing about partisan claims of huge lines ; 99% of claims are meaningless on both sides.
UPDATE: I live in Kentucky in a precinct that is heavily Republican.
Our polls open here at 6:00 a.m. I got there at 5:55 a.m.
There were AT LEAST 100 people in line when I got there. It took 45 minutes to vote. When I left there must have been 150 people in line.
This NEVER happens.
Judging by this, the Republican turnout is going to be HUGE.
The early voting in Virginia looks solidly like Romney wins!
Why do you say that Dogfish?
As a Briton, can I say how much I’m looking forward to Romney winning and how thankful I am to Keith for this site. Go and vote for RR today and make the world a safer place!
There is an article at breitbart.com that explains it.
The early voting in Virginia shows Republicans with a larger percentage of returned ballots (vs 2008) and Democrats with a lesser percentage
picking ryan was a great move!
Another Briton here who has been following developments on this site. Went from being anti-Obama to pro-Romney.
Average of the last 10 polls Obama +0.66 with D+5.1 and Romney +8.1 with Indies. At the very least I don’t see how this can be a blowout for Obama.
Thanks Keith for all your excellent work. I only wish I could vote.
Brian, even the Democrats admit there are only 3 possibilities:
1) Obama wins by a whisker
2) Romney wins by a whisker
3) Romney wins in a blowout
All indications are that it is going to be #3
Dogfish, I was going by the incredible odds on Betfair. I bought Romney at 4.3. He’s now drifted to 6.0.
I know from experience that markets aren’t very good indicators of election results, but I can’t help being worried.
Brian, I understand about the odds at Betfair and Intrade…. they look forbodeing.
But I think they are being overly influenced by 2 things:
1) Nate Silvers predictions of an 86% probability that Obama wins
2) The polls that have been done by democrat-leaning firms (those other than Gallup, Rasmussen, Pew, Susquehanna)
Both of the above are over-counting Democrats.
You will make money
Dogfish, I remember the 2004 election well, and how Kerry moved to a near certainty on Intrade and Betfair when the exit polls came out with their misleading numbers.
I expect the same to happen again this time. A friend over here has an order resting at 50 on Romney to take advantage.
Voted at 6:31 – West Virginia is already in the Romney column – was 30th in line. Everybody wants the bum out!
Someone stole my R/R yard sign this morning in the wee hours . I am maaaaaad and .
OHIO RESIDENTIAL VOTE BY COUNTIES
Just a glane..is this absentee/early?….sure looks good for RR
Wow RR leading in almost every single county
This could be what the Obama campaign meant by “don’t panic”.
Is it normal for them to release this info so early?
If this is accurate, it is going to be an early night..looks like about 1.3 million votes (EV?) and RR is leading…wow.
Time stamp on article says 2:03 am – EV?
I’m assuming EV is in there, otherwise they’ve been tabulating votes a light speed
If it is EV…the news would be outstanding…
Yeah…not sure where is this from..I thought it was the Cinni paper….oh we’ll…. Lol.
There is no way Romney is ahead in Cuyahoga. That’s bogus.
Look at the number of precincts reporting and you can see that 1/3 to 1/2 are not for many counties including the largest. Repub precincts need to hang back in reporting until all the rigging is done.
+1. Thank God Peter isn’t up yet..he would have given me some sh*t about it… .
The web site seems legit and these are listed under EV results. However they only show 1.2 mill ,where are the rest of 0.6 million ? Also how could they count so fast ?
The numbers I tweeted out may be early voting through Thursday/Friday when 1.3m had voted. 1.7 total did thru yesterday in Ohio.— Ali A. Akbar (@ali) November 06, 2012
Early votes not yet counted in Ohio
TCJ Research National US President 11/5: Mitt Romney- 51%, Barack Obama- 47%
‘Shows Romney totally regaining Indie lead. Now +14 w/ Indies’
Our final poll taken exclusively this evening. Shows Romney totally regaining Indie lead. Now +14 w/ Indies. tcjresearch.wordpress.com/2012/11/06/tcj…— TCJ Research (@TCJResearch) November 06, 2012
TCJ Research Pennsylvania: Barack Obama- 50%, Mitt Romney- 48%
d + 7 sample
Does RCP include TCJ polls in its data?
No. It looks counterfeit in my opinion but it may well be a bona fide upstart polling organisation.
It always amuses me each election how the TV networks and online news sites each have a “command center”, like for military ops or something. What exactly are they “commanding”? How about just plain old “election results center”.
Anyone has a link to an MSNBC feed?
Yeah, Lol, I want to see what they’re saying.
Screw them I want to see big Ed cry bahhhhh
Look for Ed to cry racism and voter intimidation. He might be the most obnoxious jack*ss on television since Olbermann.
As an aside, it’s incredibly humbling to see how much the rest of the world is paying attention to this election. I’m in South Korea right now for work (I would vote absentee but I’m registered in California, so no point really) and they’re covering the U.S. presidential election here nearly as much as they’re covering their own local presidential election. Amazing.
It is amazing, but the world supports Obama. I don’t know why, it’s not like he did much before 08 and he hasn’t added to the little he did in the last 4 years. It still amazes me that Obama has a Nobel Peace Prize.
And that’s why I worry because this guy, as Krauthammer said, is the luckiest politician ever.
Agree. The Nobel in particular was a total joke. Hope his luck runs out today!
Keith – those photos look like the East Village – I used to work at 9th and Broadway. If Romney breaks 20% in that area I would be surprised.
On the Republican primary day, I voted at 10:45am. I was the second person to vote at that point in the day. I often walk to the gym in my McCain-Palin shirt on and get a kick out of the looks I get.
I used to belong to the NYHRC at Cooper Square. In 2004 I wore a W button but started to get harassed, so I decided to stop flaunting my politics down there. In 2008, it was even more crazy so I did not even try.
On the ground in Virgina. Long lines pretty much everywhere in Tidewater.
Don’t get discouraged if its not an early call. R should take it but it will be close.
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