#Verizon engineers at 140 West St. hub Monday drying copper phone lines & resplicing broken ones. #Sandy on.wsj.com/Sv2ReO #worldstream
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Spencer Ante (@Spencerante) November 06, 2012This is why I have taken up residence in The Coffee Bean. Tonight I will be blogging from the satellite office in midtown and try to share things not readily available on the Networks. Also at the request of multiple people we’ll have an Open Thread around 6 or 7pm. I may even throw in an “Ask Keith” post this afternoon where you can ask me any question with minor restrictions (only one question, no follow-ups, if multiple questions I choose one and no repeats). Major Garrett used to do this on Twitter and I always thought it was fun. Anyway those are my thoughts as I exit The Bean for a bit.
411 Comments
tom ridge just called gov romney, president romney…hmmmm
Rendell said black turnout in Philly is “off the charts.”
He thinks they are ahead of 2008 pace.
He did hedge a little and say he wasn’t sure if they would top 2008.
Yep, black turnout is doing well: Black Panthers Return to Philly Polling Site…
Rendell is relying on assurances from community leaders for that. He hasn’t seen people showing up. There were lots of assurances given, i’m sure. Let’s see how they pan out.
I don’t think the turnout could possibly be higher than 2008, since the population is flat.
Based on what evidence?
Of course he’s going to say that.
I think I like Rendell better than most here.
Sure, he’ll shade it, but I’ve seen him talk pretty tough about Dem failures.
I don’t dislike Rendell…he’s one of the straighter shooters. I even have to admit to having voted for him.
Going to take more then a 08 turnout by one group, to get D+4 or higher you need near 08 turnout for all groups.. Never know!
Josh Kraushaar
@HotlineJosh
Between EV numbers and Biden surprise stop, theres something happening in Ohio. Hunch is early voting skewed polls in O’s direction.
Why did it take them until now to figure this out, I wonder? That poll trend should have been picked up a week ago.
EV numbers were awful in Ohio for the Dems.
I think they’re worried about the optics of R/R on the ground still working and the Democratic ticket not doing anything.
Not true. Obama’s playing basketball.
They sent Biden instead.. Same same.
I think you are right Bob..
masslierty…thats funny
Funny thing is, that’s not “optics.” Romney’s really still working, and the 0 really is at home playing basketball.
Stop worrying about turnout in N. Virginia folks, people are now afraid of turnout? What is going on here??? if there were no lines id be worried 50,000 times more then big lines.. The R’s come out rain or shine on ED, the D’s vote early, or come light on ED..
While that may be true in general, blue precincts are blue precincts and the general trend may not hold true in heavily contested areas. I still would rather see turnout up huge only in red precincts.
I don’t mind folks wanting to win, but turnout is turnout.. Big turnout is only a good thing for everyone.. Get out and vote, the chips will fall the way they will fall.. I just heard on FOX turnout is huge at ALL sites in VA..
D+ anything turnout is not good for everyone, just dems. Only if Rasmussen’s R+5 prediction holds true in the battleground states and not just red states is it good for us. I’ll take low turnout rainy election days anytime because that is where repubs shine.
I’ve been anecdotes all morning and nearly all talk about huge lines in deep red places. One was worried about a huge line in his polling place in Maryland, but that’s ok. Some say they didn’t have any real waits in their very blue urban polling places, which surprised them. This could all mean nothing because it’s selective or we could be looking at a chik-fil-a 2010-style election turnout.
D+3 or less is trouble for O.. I would argue D+2-3 is great for repubs but its not 04.. Like I said, don’t read the tea leaves on lines, If the R team shows up, its over for O.. Period.. So get out the vote!
Right.
Even if the Dems show up in 2008 force, if Reps do what they need to do, Romney will still win.
I like that Dan Rather says his ‘gut’ says it will be a good day for Romney! Ha.
For some perspective, in 2009 Republican Bob McDonnell WON both Fairfax County and Fairfax City. In 2010, Republican Keith Fimian lost to the incumbent Democrat Gerry Connolly in heavily Democratic District 11 by just less than 1,000 votes, 49.3% to 48.9%. So it’s not like NOVA is Cuyahoga County. Big turnout doesn’t necessarily mean big margins for Obama.
I voted in NoVA this morning. The office where I work is in Reston, and everyone is talking about waiting 30-120 minutes to vote. This is great. As many have posted often, Mitt will win ED vote hands down. My guess is Virginia will NOT be called at 7:01PM EST tonight, but it’ll be red before 10pm or so.
Keep the beer, champagne and wine chilled. Victory glasses should be able to go up around 10PM EST.
Our fireworks are ready to be blasted off tonight here in CO!
~ Brittany
Syrian rebel commander backing Romney!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/middle-east-live/2012/nov/06/syria-aleppo-tank-battles-live#block-5098f34cb579f74bac764b5f
Yeah but we lost Chavez, Castro, and Iranian Regime endorsements to 0bama this year so not much to crow about on that front.
Read this at National Review blog. Lowry is such a RINO along with many of his cohorts at NR. Reading between the lines I think he may have Intrade money on Obama. W.F. Buckley must be turning over in his grave. http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/332714/not-exactly-fearless-prediction-rich-lowry
Let him hedge.. Id hardly call Lowry a respected pundit.. It all doesn’t matter.. Its all about turnout.. End of story..
What in Colorado has him worried?
even Romney’s political director and pollster said they are more confident about Iowa than Colorado. That after Sandy the President got a fairly good uptick among independents and women in Colorado over his “handling of the storm” Iowa they are just short of calling it “in the bag”…Florida and NC they said are “baked” and Virginia while closer than they wanted was still “baked”
Biden running off to Ohio looks more like Tack for Tack than had Obama lept onto AF1 and ran to Ohio that would have sent shock waves that he was nervous. It is VERY VERY VERY close and I think Obama is walking the tight rope of trying to look and act confident but scared to death of slipping off the line.
Romney has nothing to lose by campaigning right up until polls close, that is his job. The incumbant has to look confident.
“tinfoil hat time” — if the Pat Cadell talk took place this morning…then Biden is merely a let’s at least not get spanked and make it look repsectable and maybe help the senate.
Recent polling in Colorado has not been what I had hoped.
I think they had the talk, Biden didn’t believe it, and went on his own. Why not?
Sources say Biden wanted to catch an Indians game and figured he would campaign a bit today
LOL
Lowry took over National Review after WFB’s death and it has greatly declined. The Corner used to be the best place to get the latest election news and now it is mostly dead. I have almost deleted my bookmark many times.
I have said this so many on this website and I am going to say it again….PLEASE STOP WORRYING ABOUT NRO, MOST OF THEM ARE TURNCOAT RINOS, I DON’T TRUST THEM AT ALL. PLEASE STOP GOING TO THEIR WEBSITE. USE BREITBART.COM, DRUDGE REPORT, TWITCHY, HUMAN EVENTS, HOT AIR, OR TOWNHALL. Rich Lowery is very wishy-washy and some of the other ones over at NRO are the same way. There are a couple of decent ones but still not worth paying attention to them. Remember, some of these so-called Republicans are in fact just Rinos and they make more money with Obama in office or other liberals. My gut just tells me not to trust them. Just like last night someone on that site reporting a bunch of BS about a source in the Romney campaign, no names, just BS, I don’t trust unnamed sources!
If Romney racks up over 300 EVs with very close outcomes in several states, then all of the likely paths for him to win really will still have been close. Battleground wins of 4+ points, maybe even 3+ points will be a different story.
It’s Now Public: Editors Rejigger Polls
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/11/06/its-now-public-editors-rejigger-polls/
awesome!!
Yet will anyone get so much as their hand slapped for faking all the polls? I highly doubt it.
~ Brittany
You are correct. One thing we have to realize as conservatives is that the leftist media will NEVER change, in fact they will get worse. That is why new-media exists and we will prevail not only today but also as time goes on.
Heres a good link to some election day reports from everywhere… http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/06/2nd-Election-Reports-from-Citizen-Journalists-as-Polls-Open Its tea leaves but it may help you all with whats going on all over at polling spots.
As far as I can tell this page hasn’t updated in 5 or so hours. Drudge, Breitbart, all of them seem asleep at the wheel today. Maybe they are all napping before this evening?
By the way, Susquehanna has now posted the detail for their PA survey showing 47-47 tie. It is D+6 by registration, but what’s interesting to me is that when respondents were asked who they typically vote for, it was 40% R, 37% D, 23% “crossover” voters. So that is some indication that D registration advantage may mean less in PA than in other states, due to the apparent tendency of PA D voters to cross over and vote R.
http://triblive.com/csp/mediapool/sites/dt.common.streams.StreamServer.cls?STREAMOID=0I0hwU$OuD57afFCPOEdD5M5tm0Zxrvol3sywaAHBAnBhXIYAMbbt6uusX5S9RVrE0$uXvBjavsllACLNr6VhLEUIm2tympBeeq1Fwi7sIigrCfKm_F3DhYfWov3omce$8CAqP1xDAFoSAgEcS6kSQ–&CONTENTTYPE=application/pdf&CONTENTDISPOSITION=ptr-poll-110412.pdf
Of course that is down from their previous poll showing Romney +4.
Peter did you vote for O today ? ITS PA.. The fact we are even talking about PA returns should illuminate everything to you.
No Chris I did not vote for O. I voted straight ticket Repub like I always do. It is just that I am cautiously optimistic and not overflowing with confidence like the O spin crew. And the analogy previous used several times by commenters here of the Peanuts strips every year with the Lucy holding the football gag is in the back of my mind for PA and several other states that often tease and rarely deliver. Again I am optimistic but not bubbly.
Do I look bubbly? There is a REAL chance O will win today, there is no doubt, if you look at the numbers its a possibility. All you can do is vote, and hope the country agrees at the polls.. Check out some of tedly’s posts for some humor today!
No question, but they are using a pretty conservative party ID of D+6 — in 2008 party ID was D +7 (Dem 44, Rep 37, Ind 18) while in 2004 it was D +2. So even if you split the difference, you’d get D + 4.5, making D + 6 overly Democratic by 1.5 points. Also, you cannot ignore the factor of momentum this past weekend, 10/31 was the end of the polling period and people had the Obama-Christie bromance in their minds, and didn’t yet have a chance to see the horrors that would befall people in NY and NJ after 10/31 with continuing lack of power, heat, gasoline, food and water etc. So this is a very good poll, and, as noted, we’re talking about Pennsylvania, a state that no one really thought would end up being in play, and clearly is.
I live here in SW PA. I just saw those internals. Romney is going to win PA. O was solid with only 43% of the voters. 3% “lean” O and 4% undecided. Lots of crossover–that’s the way it works here. I said 2 months ago if R ended the campaign in Pittsburgh he was going to win comfortably. Where will he be in 90 minutes, you ask?
I just noticed Rove upped his prediction from 279 to 285. Not sure what state he flipped, IA?
Either Iowa or Nevada…..I imagine Iowa.
I really don’t see us winning NV. I used to go there every few weeks for work and there are **A LOT** of Hispanics. I think we all saw the recent article about illegal aliens being put on the voter rolls there.
~ Brittany
Nevada is 4, Iowa is 6. He had Iowa yesterday as leaning Obama. Must be Iowa though.
He definately has IA on his map. I didn’t realize he was iffy on it before
OK – while I thought I was the newly minted Master of Tea Leaves, it turns out I’m really the grand Poo Bah or Mint Tea. But I can deal with that. I was watching MSNBC a bit ago and was speechless. They ran a 5 minute bit called “Elephants in the Room” – which was just 3rd grade mocking the whole Republican party. The only thing that was missing was a dis of Teddy Rosevlet – likely because none of the ignoramouses at MSNBC know that Teddy was a Repub. They just sound sooooo bitter – and resigned – and pissed – and my personal favorite TOTALLY self rightous – they know.
Love it Ted, keep the tea leaf reports coming, they are hilarious..
Dude – if really from CA – I understand your need for at least a litttle humor. The only folks in CA that aren’t stoned, or focusing on their inner self, or whatever, are just plain looney left and always in a bad mood.
Id be gone if I didn’t live by the beach in Orange County.. The R stronghold of CA. Yeah its loony here…
CAChris, I used to live in Irvine, CA. I know exactly how you feel.
~ Brittany
That’s where I live Brit!
So yeah you know!
The entire NBC clan is harcore partisan lib..from their website to their evening news
I live in Anne Arundel County, Maryland, which has a large Rebublican base despite how liberal the State is. The line at our polling place was as long as I’ve ever seen it. The interesting thing was that the woman in front of me calmly said that she went to law school with Obama and that he “was the same way then. Thought he was smarter than everyone. Naive in that way. He doesn’t get the bigger picture.” She clearly was voting for RR. (As a side note, I asked her about Barry’s law school grades. She said she assumes they were decent since he was on law review.) Cheers. Should be a wild night.
Hey, his qualifications for president must be decent, since Americans voted him president.
And she’s talking about naivete?
Some interesting tidbits from voters : I was in line at 7:00. I live right outside Philly. There were about 15 people ahead of me the first person in line pulled out his ID and the women running the polling site announced we don’t need that until it’s a law, I’m not doing it.
Every person in line reached in their pockets pulled out their ID’s and laid them on the table while registering. So proud to be an American! The silent majority will be heard today!!!
love it!!
As it turns out – not so silent after all.
Nice older lady this morning asks a mid to late 30′s african american woman for her drivers license….the lady stepped back and said “I dont have one, we dont need ID in missouri” the older lady looked up like grandma and said “how did you get here then dear, I just saw you put your keys in your purse…now do you have anything that proves you vote here?” with just the most lovely old lady smile you can have. The voting lady cracks this big old smile and whips out her driver’s license and away she voted.
just thought it was funny
They made Obama show his when he voted in Chicago and he thought nothing of it…hypocrasy!
Tea leaves in bellweather Pasco Co. FL:
Adrian Gray @adrian_gray 17m
In Pasco County, FL…GOP leads with election day voters 46% to 31%. pascovotes.com/turnout.asp
View details ·
McCain won this co. 51-48 in 2008.
Adds up to only 77%? Oh, I see it says GOP not Romney so rest are Indys which should break R’s way by sig amount.
Pasco numbers look great…(as of 1pm)
If we assume a 50%-50% split of unaffiliated/independent voters Romney is up by 9% …(matching Bush 2004)
If has has 55%-45% split in the unaffiliated/independent voters Florida goes to Romney in a landslide
I think the last ABC poll had a pretty strong crossover vote in favor of RR as well. 55%-45% on independent voters + 2-3% on crossover would be even more than a landslide.
Some neat information here. Looks like 61.8% of Republicans in the county have already voted, versus 55.7% of Democrats and 45.0% of Independents. Based on early voting typically leaning towards the DEMS, I would have to think this margin would expand throughout the day.
Enthusiasm? I hope this translates to the rest of the country.
So over half the country has early voted? I don’t believe these numbers.
Over half the county, not country. Over 2/3s of the votes are absentee or early. The data is directly from the county’s Supervisor of Elections.
@Christian. Actually, I would bet over half the country has voted already.
Approx 40% voted in early/Absentee voting. That would mean only approx 10-15% would have to vote by now to go over 50%.
I think thats entirely possible.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida's_5th_congressional_district
McCain won this district 56-43 in 08′
It includes Pasco county, seems pretty Republican heavy already. Don’t think we can read into these Pasco county numbers
The actual county went to McCain 51-48. These figures are suggesting a double digit win for RR, more reminiscent of 2004 where Bush won 54-44
Ok excellent. Today is soo exciting!
bush won pasco by only 9 in 04. if this is a trend, Romney winner bigger than Bush o4!
Are there any other counties out there that publish similar data?
i live in the county next to pasco pinellas it doesn’t matter about fl, we are going to win here comfortably it’s ohio , pa , co, va, and iowa (nh) !!
Looks like these results are holding steady with the 2PM update.
http://www.suffolk.edu/offices/54254.html
Reading this battleground county poll has me psyched. Ohio & NH numbers going to Romney, wow. I am walking with a step lighter now.
Don’t be surprised! Mitt-Mentum!
Wow if those Suffolk county figures are correct, R/R will win real big in OH… I would be shocked if those are accurate and he loses OH.. Matter of fact those numbers should carry him in PA and WI if that’s truly the voting sentiment.. Fascinating!!!
Any thoughts on Wisconsin? Have they utilized Ryan enough there? I figured they would make a much more aggressive play for it. Assuming CO in the bag, adding WI would be a very plausible second path.
My theory on Wisky is that Obama basically abandon the Dems there leading up to the Walker recall by not getting involved. He even flew over Wisky twice the week prior to the recall while traveling from Chicago to Minneapolis but would not stop in Wisky. That recall was almost like a life/death situation to many of the public union folks so Obama being agnostic about it cannot be helping their motivation to show up today. Walker’s machine is still in place from June. Romney wins Wisconsin by ~2% is my prediction.
Japes, I think WI goes to R/R… Its been moving R for awhile, The walker recall was the first step.. It seems odd with Obama’s record they would lurch back to the left after 10, but hey, GET OUT THE VOTE.. never know till they count!
Great. I’m not in the know of the RR visits to WI in the last 1 or 2 weeks. With the legit toss up in OH, the WI+CO+(NH/IA) is def tenable. I’m not as rosy with the 300+ talk but I see 275-290ish. Does WI have EVing?
I believe WI only has absentee voting, not in person early voting. What they do have also though is same day voter registration, even for presidential elections. That normally works in favor of Dems but not so sure this time. There may be a lot of small town/rural conservative leaning folks who are not registered and they may show up. We’ll see.
RR at 31.5 on Intrade. I think that is the highest I have seen today.
Yeah Obama dropped about 3% in the last half hour. I wonder if something is up….
intrade is such a waste lol.. The Euros must just watch RCP and think its easy money? No idea but those sites make me laugh.
Wish I had an account there. A lot of free money available today.
Intrade is not always accurate . Had Bush in 2000 on Election Day at 28% during the day.
Well, it is all over for Obama….
This is just a very small list of reasons:
10. Are you better off than you were four years ago?
9. Do you feel America is heading in the right direction?
8. Is the current President bringing Americans together?
7. This is NOT 2008 !
6. The GOP is not for bigger government as they were in the early 2000’s.
5. People are not staying home on election day.
4. The main street press does NOT represent main street.
3. Both candidates now have a record… which do you want?
2. Our rights are from our Creator, not from Uncle Sam !!!
1. My Mother-in law voted for a Republican President today !!!!!
Need I say more?
Trolls have accused us of having built an “alternate reality” here on this site. What I would like to know is this. Is there an alternate reality in Philadelphia and Chicago that entitles pro-Obama poll workers to break our election laws with impunity?
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/election-judge-wears-obama-cap-while-checking-voters-obamas-chicago-ward_661843.html
I assume your question is rhetorical because the obvious answer is YES!!
I am getting so sick of the double standard. Democrats do something, everyone overlooks it. Republicans sneeze the wrong way, and we are attacked. Really tired of it.
~ Brittany
How about Nevada, illegal immigrants, and labor unions? They get a free pass too? It is pretty obvious why the Democrats don’t like voter ID laws, isn’t it? It’s not about protecting people who actually are entitled to vote from being discriminated against. It’s about preserving their opportunity to CHEAT!
http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/2012/11/05/allegation-unions-putting-illegal-immigrants-voter-rolls-clouds-nevada-voting
Well of course. The Dems will do anything – ANYTHING – to win. And they only support regulations/rules/laws that help them in that.
~ Brittany
Oh – Come on now JGS. Don’t be so tough on this guy. He’s just doing his job.
And, really, think about it. By giving someone two ballots he’s “ensuring” someone that couldn’t make it to the polls wouldn’t be disenfranchised.
Yeah – that’s it. He’s an election judge. He’s protecting justice. Yeah – that’s right. He’s standing up for the United States OF AMERICA!
NOT!
I spent about an hour reading Nate Silver’s blog comments yesterday. His cultists had nothing to say about early voting. They were too busy crowing about the top line averages and “math.” Beats me how an election requires anything more than arithmetic to add the vote tallies, but there you go.
Totally ignoring the early vote counts? That’s what I call a bubble.
odds that Nate Silver followers are soilling their pants? 70%?
lol what happed with good ol RCP watcher nate?
It’s funny, you go on Daily Kos, they believe that folks like us are going to be soiling our pants. Someone has been very, very wrong about this election. I believe it is Nate Silver and his followers, because (like Peter Palco and bks on this site) they are obsessed with the top line poll results and never seem to talk about the unlikelihood of the party ID that is baked into these polls actually materializing once all the votes are cast.
As I said immediately above, they’re all still blabbering about top lines of polls. They have nothing to say about early voting. That’s utter detachment from reality if you ask me. The polls are not the ones voting today, or the ones voting over the last 2 weeks (or whatever it is) of early voting.
OK – this is just too good not to mention. Bob Schrum was just on Andrea Mitchell. He was head cheerleader for both Algore in 2000 and the 2004 Dem John Kerry, who fought in Vietnam by the way. He ended his comments by worrying about this new kind of animal – the partisan pollster who doesn’t tell the truth, but instead reports what his masters want him to report. Really? That’s been the problem this cycle? Pollsters over reporting Repubs? Un – freaking – believeable. I can’t decide if I live in 1937 Germany or 2050 Bizzaro World.
Yeah. There’s comedy.
And you’d think Greenspan could afford better looking arm candy.
I’m sure he didn’t name names..
Of course not – just all about generic – they want to suppress voters – they hate people – they are racist bigot homophobes – and they have all these polsters that over-report Repubs. Among the 12,617 things that don’t make any sense about what he said is – ALL OF THE POLLS SAY BAMSTER IS WINNING!!!!!! so which of them is not telling the truth from this bulbous nosed moron?
“what his masters want him to report”
And who exactly would those masters be? We alerady know because we’ve been talking about for the past month. The guys with the money….even when they say it’s not about the $$$ it’s still always sabout the $$$
I am not a polling expert, can somebody explain this plz
Catalist is a Dem Polling outfit by a guy that worked for Clinton.. That is saying D+14 not happening.. More biased pie in the sky polling.
You know what – I think those *are* 2008 numbers.
It’s a Democrat cheerleader posting up numbers. Are they bogus? Yes, most likely.
There is no ARE in that, those are complete assumptions based on guessing party affiliations.. Complete garbage, ignore.
D +14 in EV.
They had 1.45 EV in 2008.
But this doesn’t make sense against numbers I saw out of Cuyahoga and Franklin last night.
If this is true, this is much better for the Dems than I thought.
believe this may be some of the bogus data that some in the legit media are saying are flowing out of Ohio disguised as official data.
According to the Blaze one of their writers was told by an Obama source they will declare victory early so as to demoralize Romney voters…..I think you are seeing how they will try it here. I look for MASSIVE tweets with official sounding informating out of battlegrounds showing massive Obama turnout and leads as to try and demoralize romneyites from showing up.
DO NOT FEED THE ANIMALS, IGNORE THE BEASTS
It’s possible they’re just going by ‘party’. Some polls had EV+AB going 2-1 for Obama so I’ll take 15% or so.
That is about 25 percent of the total vote in 08.
The last CNN poll had RR winning the Election Day vote by 13 points.
So, I will take that all day!!!!
My take so for on TV and of course scientific. Democrats
Republicans 
Hey – given that none of us will have ANY REAL DATA for about 6 more hours – Tea leaves are great for now. And I agree with you scientific assessment.
Thank you — I have a team of analysts crunching the data — although in the spirit of full disclosure — the dog will do anything for a dog treat.
I feel like a jerk gloating about our win but you know what? They rubbed it in our faces in 2008 big time. So I guess I shouldn’t feel bad, last election was theirs, this one is ours.
~ Brittany
I admire your grit but it still is a little early for gloating. We don’t want to be like those Dewey supporters who woke up in 1948 to that famous pre-printed headline.
Sorry Peter but you won’t get me down.
~ Brittany
Well the result might get you down. I was just as confident in 2000 as you are today, and the polling numbers were much better for us then than now. Just keep that in mind..
I’m not going to feel like a jerk gloating at them. I’m going to enjoy rubbing their faces in it.
We need some updates from the battleground states, who’s voting, waiting lines, any early number or estimates…I live in a rural area of western NC so I know nothing about what’s going on on the ground. All quiet in my little neighborhood…wouldn’t even know there were millions voting, just a sleepy little street, but I love it! Out here we are just in our own little world. I voted 2 weeks ago…I am so nervous about tonight, need some sort of nerve medicine or stiff drink to get through it. If Romney wins I think I will run outside in the cold and cut cartwheels across the yard which I haven’t done since elementary school.
I don’t mean to feed this anecdotal frenzy because these observations are not of much use. Having said that, very very busy in my slice of VA. Obama won here by 62% in ’08.
Don’t worry. Start drinking!
For those of you worried about Northern Virginia here is a post of mine from yesterday to allay your fears.
Regards to Virginia – we live and work in Northern Virginia and headed out for lunch about 90 minutes ago to Chipotle in Vienna, VA. (3 soft tacos with mild salsa, cheese and lettuce) Vienna is a small town in the heart of Fairfax County which went for Obama in 2008 by 60 – 39.
Since we were coming from Fairfax City about 20 minutes away we decided to do a count of yard signs along the way. Rules were simple – only one sign counted per home and a really big sign counts for 2.
Final results……….
Romney 50
Obama 38
This is amazing seeing as most of these signs were counted in Vienna which is even more liberal than the County of Fairfax.
My prediction for tomorrow is 50.5 for R 48.5 for Obama.
While I was out there I bumped into Marist doing some polling – they were standing on the side of the road counting bumper stickers on Prius’s – Tied at 47 with a D +37
In other words don’t worry about long lines in NOVA (as we like to call it) Romney will manage the gap here and win VA by 3-4 points.
Been to that Chipotle. They need more parking, lol.
WE NEED SOME UPDATES, NEW POSTS FROM KEITH, ANYTHING, DYING OUT HERE! HELP, NEED INFO, AND CAN SOMEONE GIVE ANY UPDATES ON REAL OHIO EARLY VOTE NUMBERS??? WHAT’S GOING ON IN VA, FL, NC, NH, OH, PN, WI AND SO ON? CAN ANYONE GET A READ ABOUT WHAT’S GOING ON???
Gird your loins, nothing new for 5 more hours. Then we start seeing returns. If you are hooked into the Romney campaign, you can make phone calls for them in the meantime.
Dude I wish I could email you a shot of vodka.. Take it easy, its too early to get more info..
Take a valium, sleep for 7 hours and wake up to find out.
White – http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/06/2nd-Election-Reports-from-Citizen-Journalists-as-Polls-Open
Read all that, lol..
Like I said earlier. No new data for about 6 more hours. Let Keith rest – I’m sure he needs it – and in the meantime we can entertain ourselves by watching the MSNBC/CNN crowd look the way we felt in 2008 – just can’t believe the country was stupid enough to elect that moron.
Don’t even get me started. I knew that guy was an empty suit from the moment he started looking competitive with Clinton.
I wish I could help you. Here in CO, everyone I know has voted early. My father is working the polls today as part of the ORCA program but he hasn’t told me anything except there is a huge turnout at his polling place. He has mainly been asking ME for updates such as the illegal stuff Dems are doing across the country whenever he steps out into the parking lot.
~ Brittany
A nice rumor (take with grain of salt but…)
Todd Kincannon @ToddKincannon
Rumor is Obama campaign just realized they are losing Ohio. Just dispatched Joe Biden to Cleveland on an emergency basis. Very interesting.
LoL. Because Joe bumbling around will really give all those unemployed and in poverty jobs and food on the table! What a joke. They are going down hard.
~ Brittany
From same guy.
Todd Kincannon @ToddKincannon
From the internal turnout numbers I’m seeing from my friends on campaigns, GOP turnout is unprecedented. Dem turnout is below average.
This is even better – they had somebody on CNN complaining that all the candidtate visits to Cleveland were suppressing the vote because no one could drive due to the candidate based traffic jams. Of couse they said is was a Romney trick, but left out the part where JoJo creates about ten times the traffic problems.
WHOO! Keep is coming Margaret! I always thought there’d be a huge R wave but hearing it’s actually happening is so exciting!
~ Brittany
Obama strikes me as done with it all. He’s sick of campaigning (one more piece of anecdotal evidence if you ask me). Biden has talked of entertaining a run at the white house so he plays the good soldier.
Dave, I’ve said it before, but I’ve also learned very well over the last 10 years to repeat things endlessly if you want them to sink in, so I’ll say it again; Barry’s heart isn’t really in this. His pride is in this, but not his heart. His heart wants to leave the White House and all that icky work and live someplace exotic like Hawaii. His heart wants to start collecting the insane amounts of cash he’s going to make on the post-presidential lecture circuit (where politicians go to collect on their bribes in modern American politics).
0bama’s going to be the richest ex-president ever. Why would someone who doesn’t really care about America want to spend another 4 years as president, when he could spend them collecting huge sums on the lecture circuit and playing basketball?
And if Biden thinks he’s got a shot at the WH, he’s even more nuts than I thought.
@katyabram
Just spoke to guy from @PAGOP said Jonestown precinct has 30% GOP so far and 14% Dem. GOP turnout twice it was in 2008
Thanks Keith for your blog. I just found it this week, and it’s helped me to stay sane.
I’m 53 and have been watching elections since I was a teenager. This is the strangest Presidential election I’ve ever seen. All (and I mean all) of the significant anecdotal info suggests a Romney win (demeanor of the candidates, demeanor of their surrogates, enthusiam at campaign events, year-to-year comparisons, etc.), but the polls suggest something else. Well, here’s my thoughts on the polls:
1. Even though most have significant issues (see below) at both the state and national levels, a Romney win is still within the statistical margin of error. I have a mathematics/statistics background. A Romney win nationally by even 2-3% shouldn’t raise an eyebrow statistically.
2. However, the 50% or so of the polls that are not just statistical garbage appear to have systemic issues that raise legitimate questions:
- The demographic models used by most are assumed (not validated) and the polling organizations (with the exception of a few – e.g. Rasmussen and Gallup) are not attempting to validate and improve them to match current reality
- The methodologies for most polls are consistently undersampling Republicans (garbage in = garbage out)
- The pollsters have not figured out how to address biases introduced by ever-increasing early voting. Instead of becoming more accurate closer to the election, the polls could be getting less accurate as the impacts of early voting increase
I don’t think the credible polling organizations are purposefully biasing the polls – I think they are not addressing these systemic issues.
Hence, I trust Barone and Rove over Silver. Silver is reliant on statistical information that could be significantly wrong. Barone and Rove know the electorate and the election history, county-by-county. They could also be wrong, but at least their conclusions are based on facts not just statistical modeling.
Win or lose (and I’m confident Romney will win) it has been a pleasure reading the comments from so many like-minded and rational people. Thanks all!
Blato, well said man, couldn’t have summed it up better.. +!
Blato. Where were you this whole time! Good level headed analysis. We can always use the statistical and technical expertise.
so by this time of day in 2004 there were all sorts of leaks about Kerry winning big. Haven’t seen any of that. O-camp may see they are so far behind that supressing turnout a couple percent just won’t matter. More tea leaves?
Other then the deep liberal pundits I haven’t seen anyone from team O predict a big win.. So who knows! Good ol waiting game.. Get out the vote! Win or lose this whole election cycle is one for the history books, fascinating!
The fact that some members of Team O (volunteers?) were actually seen crying in Chicago is very, very telling to me. Last night Reince Preibus looked like he was about to pee his pants he was so excited.
~ Brittany
Well the restrictions on release of exit polling are much tougher now. They let reporters in without electronic devices at 11 a.m. for a first look, but they can’t disseminate any info to their respective organizations until around 5 p.m. EST.
I was voter #202 around 9 a.m. in a Milwaukee, WI suburb (part of Paul Ryan’s 1st Cong. District). No lines. Most of the cars in the parking lot had Ryan for Congress, Romney or leftover “Stand With Walker” stickers. Only saw one car with an Obama sticker. Doesn’t surprise me, though. This area went 66% for Walker in June and went 64% for McCain in ’08. I’m taking a person to the polls later today, during the rush-hour, so I’ll be able to judge turnout better then. The voter turnout in this area is paramount to a Romney win. He needs to run-up the margins in the southern Milwaukee ‘burbs (Hales Corners, Franklin, Oak Creek, Greendale, Greenfield) and Waukesha Co. to cancel out the margin from the city of Milwaukee. I’m going to be watching those returns and Green Bay (Brown Co.). If Brown Co goes for Romney, it’s most likely the state will, too.
What are your thoughts on Wisconsin? You feel Romney is in good shape? WI+CO+(IA or NH) Is the best alternate path.
Good news in iowa!
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/332730/report-one-iowas-most-liberal-counties-eliana-johnson
they are locking down Exit Numbers so as to not have a repeat of 04. Apparently at 5pm est the media outlet will begin to be allowed to REPORT TRENDS ONLY….they are NOT allowed to give out exact or actual numbers from Exit polls.
Also most of the MSM have strongly rebuked their newsrooms to refrain from or at least be extremely careful with what information they tweet or retweet from other outlets. The theme seems to be it isn’t about being first in 2012 it is about be RIGHT. <<< We shall see.
If Obama looks good they will crawl all over themselves to call it. If Romney looks good I will imagine "Too Close to Call" through Thanksgiving
Intrade might be a tell. Whatch the guys that get the info first start trying to scrape some dollars out of that. Journalistts aren’t the most overpaid individuals.
“overpaid individuals.”
let me rephrase that…the most highly paid individuals.
@Tedley “This is even better – they had somebody on CNN complaining that all the candidtate visits to Cleveland were suppressing the vote because no one could drive due to the candidate based traffic jams. Of couse they said is was a Romney trick, but left out the part where JoJo creates about ten times the traffic problems.”
I think it’s a problem. Look, it’s Tuesday, people are going to vote on their lunch hour. Any outside delay is BS. People have to work.
I’ve never understood why Election Day isn’t on Saturday when far more people do not have to work.
Well – if it’s a problem call Bamster. He’s the one whe sent JoJo into Cleveland today.
basically the reasons are that while it would benefit those who work….it could also hurt those who 1) do not have child care on the weekends when they aren’t working and 2) weekend mass transit and other forms of transportationaly services that many in the lower class, eldery, etc rely on to get to the polls do not run as wide of schedules as during the work week.
These are a few of the reasons that are why it is not changed.
BUT the real reason is because election day is set by the US Congress and has been for 160+ years changing things that are big deals. It was set as the first tuesday in November because tuesdays in the old days when travel sometimes took a day to get to a poll did not intefer with the biblical sabbath nor the farm/cattle market days which were normally on wednesdays.
I was voter #202 around 9 a.m. in a Milwaukee, WI suburb (part of Paul Ryan’s 1st Cong. District). No lines. Most of the cars in the parking lot had Ryan for Congress, Romney or leftover “Stand With Walker” stickers. Only saw one car with an Obama sticker. Doesn’t surprise me, though. I’m in a city that went 66% for Walker in June and went 64% for McCain in ’08. I’m taking a person to the polls later today, during the rush-hour, so I’ll be able to judge turnout better then. The voter turnout in this area is paramount to a Romney win. He needs to run-up the margins in the southern Milwaukee ‘burbs (Hales Corners, Franklin, Oak Creek, Greendale, Greenfield) and Waukesha Co. to cancel out the margin from the City of Milwaukee. I’m going to be watching those returns and Green Bay (Brown Co.). If Brown Co goes for Romney, it’s most likely the state will, too.
I saw earlier comments wondering about R/R appearances in the state and WI’s early voting. Ryan held a sizable rally in Milwaukee last night and Romney was in town over the weekend, holding a huge crowd on the State Fair grounds. As far as early voting goes, it’s technically absentee but you can vote in person at your municipal clerk’s office during the two weeks prior to the election; they just put the ballot after voting in an absentee envelope. That’s what I did in June for the Recall election. Furthermore, there is day of registration.
Thanks. I was wondering. Personal thoughts on Wisconsin?
This Pasco County Florida information is great. This county has about 10% more Republicans than Democrats but the Repulicans are outvoting the Democrats by 22%. This implies higher Republican turnout than Democrat turnout among registered voters. Republicans held an early voting an advantage, but the in-person Republican advantage compared to the early voting advantage is much higher. The old addage about Republicans showing up in greater numbers on election day is turning out to be true. If this pattern holds in the rest of the country, we have won.
http://pascovotes.com/turnout.asp
Florida for the 4 weeks was in RR camp i dont understand why O spent so much money here !!
Registered voters in Pasco County:
Republicans 120,860
Democrats 108,154
Total turnout among registered voters in Pasco County
57.3% of registered Democrats have voted
63.6% of Registered Republicans have voted
Turnout R +6.3
The margins increase in Republicans favor every hour.
+1. It seems like FL is over. It’s just a question now of how much the data from Pasco translates to the rest of the country.
its is over in fl —-pasco is one of many counties in florida that have symbolic dem registration but they usually vote republican!!
intrade is a joke, my book will only give me even odds today –lol
You should arbitrage it then – free money.
Wisconsin:
Todd Marohl @mufansince72
@TCJResearch anecdotal reports in wis show very heavy t/o in GOP areas. Normal in dem areas
I don’t know how many people read most of these reports as it is quite long on Breitbart but I did and what struck me was even in solid republican parts of the country the very long lines. If they are doing this in red states you can bet they are the same in battleground states. I think the silent majority has finally said “ENOUGH IS ENOUGH”
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/06/2nd-Election-Reports-from-Citizen-Journalists-as-Polls-Open
I’m stuck in the People’s Republic of Massachusetts, so I have nothing to add to the turnout discussion (but keep it coming – I want to hear more from you later hoefsdf). However, I can add a bit of Wall Street information to the mix. Obviously, health care stocks are going to move based on what info comes out about the election. It’s important to remember that not all health care stocks will react equally to news though. Also remember that hedge fund types have been giving a lot to both campaigns and while I don’t have any direct evidence – I think it’s quite possible for some exit poll data to slip from campaign HQ to interested donors with lots of money tied up in these stocks. So with that in mind, take a look at this chart:
http://tinyurl.com/aallwa5
AET: Health insurance companies are expected to benefit marginally from repeal of Obamacare. They benefit from the mandate – uhh, I mean tax – because it forces people to buy their products, but they don’t like the uncertainty surrounding a lot of the new regulations. If Romney is expected to win, this stock should trade flat to up.
HCA: Hospitals are huge beneficiaries from Obamacare. A repeal would take a lot of easy money from them.
S&P 500: Just a baseline to show you what the rest of the market is doing today.
Both stocks started down a little, but then something kicked in at ~9:45 AM (earliest exit polls/turnout indications?). AET rebounded and is now flat. HCA just TANKED and is still trending down.
Just to be clear. I have no money in either of these stocks. I asked my friend who researches these stocks for a living which stocks would move the most on election news, and this is what he gave me this morning. Needless to say, we’re both pretty happy so far.
I am curious what most of you will use tonight as the aggregate site for the election totals and analysis. I normally have Fox on TV (mainly because of Michael Barone), with CNN and the SOS office for Ohio on my computer. I recall during the Daschle/Thune race, there was a South Dakota site that was fantastic as the guy knew every South Dakota precinct. I haven’t found any (other than Keith’s here–LoL). Anyway, appreciate any input you good people have. Ohio weather is great in my area (Butler County) and anticipate very solid Romney totals here.
I’m going to stick with Fox News.
Watching Fox toggle with CNN, taping MSNBC (for weekend entertainment). Will find a site that has maps by country for all states (likely CNN) and will be toggling between states looking at bellweather counties – and calling states before the media does…Will be filling in my map as we go. Yes, I’m a tool.
and checking battlegroundwatch – of course!!!
I actually go with CNN…they seem to be on average less partisan and less annoying. Their panelists are more to the subdued side. MSNBC…yeah no. FOX is okay for the post-mordem bu I really cannot stand Hannity and O’Reiley and Juan Williams, etc.
So if all goes well I will watch CNN. If knock wood, throw salt, grab a rabbit’s foot, say like Pennsylvania, Wisconison, etc flip…I will be on MSNBC so fast so I can catch the panelists’ quick succession gun shots as Chris Matthews blathers his way to a stroke just before biting down on his cyanide capsule LOL
Is there a way to watch MSNBC online? Do they have a livestream? I unfortunately don’t get it in my cable package and don’t miss it but wouldn’t mind the entertainment tonite.
Hey can someone speak up when a majority of us followers start to switch to commenting on a new blog post here through out the afternoon and night?