Mitt Romney arrived in Pittsburgh for his final rally. He was greeted by hundreds of fans across the street from the tarmac at an airport garage trying to get a glimpse of the next President. He waved to them and according to the press got a little choked up saying “That’s when you know you’re gonna win”:
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Axelrod today on CNN about the Ohio Provisional ballots.. “”We are going to watch those ballots closely,” said Obama senior adviser David Axelrod on CNN’s “Starting Point.” “We want to make sure that everybody’s voice is heard in this election.”
If O easily wins why is this necessary? Tea Leaves….
It isn’t. There are only 11,000 provisional ballots out for Ohio. Romney will win by way more than that. Axelrod is grasping at straws.
~ Brittany
Where did you read there are only 11k ballots?
Those numbers won’t be known until after the polls close.
I imagine that is just something you say, regardless.
Becuase that’s an avenue for injecting fraud themsleves oraccusi g the other guy of it. Their from Chicago what do you expect.
Some NBC reporter is tweeting:
@JulieCareyNBC Reporting from Richmond. Sources …VA turnout trending more like 2008 than 2004.
Eek? Oof? Derp?
And? This is great, the bigger the turnout the worse it is for D’s on ED.. Everyone knows this, so stop worrying about line sizing, its simple.. R+ anything O loses big.. D+4 its tight, D+3 or less R wins. No one knows! We are getting close to an answer!
VA was D+6 in 2008
Good. A little taken back. Turnout is turnout. More reps in that turnout is good
Yeah, NBC…keep drinking the Kool Aid.
~ Brittany
I have to say, you are indefatigable. I really hope you’re right.
Trux seriously, go cry into your pillow or something. It got old 3 days ago.
~ Brittany
Despair.
Trux, I really hope your candidate wins, I want to see you out of despair my friend!
Trux = emo.
~ Brittany
Wait, trux is posing as a desperate Romney supporter now? I’d taken him for an openly-dem troll until about 30 seconds ago…
Well, the question is…trending in which side’s favor? If it’s looking like 2008, which was a wave election for Democrats, well maybe it’s the same for…
I saw a report of record turnout in a VA County that Obama carried big in ’08.. but thing is, Bush won this same county in ’04. So if people are swinging back to GOP, you can draw an incorrect conclusion.
Exactly…Virginia may be seeing turnout like 2008 again…but this time it may be for the Republicans. Which would be…well, intense to say the least.
I also believe the GOP won the election day turnout in Virginia. So much of Obama’s win came from how good his early voting/absentee voting operation was. It’s also worth remembering that McCain has practically no turnout operation and the RNC was not well run. Priebus has done an excellent job and we saw the machine he put together in Wisconsin. Romney’s campaign is not underfunded and has built a super GOTV effort that had no trouble getting volunteers weeks out of the election. The Obama campaign in emails and phone calls yesterday was saying they were over 800 short for GOTV in NoVA and I’ve heard they were hundreds short in Richmond and other places as well. We have seen few Obama volunteers in the Tampa Bay precincts.
I actually received an Obama campaign text message asking me to reply and get the name and phone number of someone in a swing state to call and convince them to vote for Obama. I was thinking, “What?” A bit to little to late I’m afraid. Even my enthusiasm is down.
“Will you make one call for President Obama? Reply CALL and we’ll send you teh name & phone number of one voter in a key state who needs to hear from you.”
key word: SOURCES….most likely Democrat campaign sources. But we will know in 3 hours and 10 minutes
NBC…what are they suppose to say..get ready for the “Obama has won” plan….right when massive amount of GOPers get out of work.
Just got back from voting. I’m in Ohio (Toledo, Lucas County) and I voted for Romney. The polling place had about 15 people voting but I’m in a very liberal part of the city with little residents.
Ohio
LR Buckeye @LRBuckeye
@MarkHalperin SW ohio red Counties outperforming GWB 04
A little BOOM for ya.
Did I miss one of Keith’s posts or something?! I keep seeing this “tea leaves” things, can someone explain this euphemism, please?
Just people “reading the tea leaves” for good signs absent any hard data yet.
got it, thanks.
Aaron, I put “Tea Leaves” when its nothing more then pure speculation.. We just don’t know anything right now, O could be winning in a landslide, R could be winning in a landslide, it could be close, we just DONT know… Line sizes are a good sign of GOTV.. For whom? History favors turnout on ED to R’s but we just don’t know what happens when folks fill in the bubble! We will find out!
@CA Chris – just to verify, I’m under the impression that for states that have early voting, you are correct, but for states that don’t have early voting, higher turnout has traditionally favored Democrats. What makes you think that high turnout in VA is a good thing?
reading tea leaves is like a mystic or palm reader like thing….means trying to figure out the future from evidence of the present
I’ve been seeing a lot of reports of long lines in red and purple areas, short lines in blue areas. Is that pretty consistent? Exceptions?
Assume long lines everywhere, Red/Blue/Purple.. Its going to be a historic turnout.. This is in my opinion excellent news, large turnout means people are super enthusiastic for a candidate! Which one?! We shall find out!
Yes, I posted earlier about the 3 precincts near me. The redder it is the more lines there are. The one with the highest Dem being the one without lines. These are purple NoVA places.
I hope when this is over the results leave past-his-prime Springsteen looking even more haggard than he does now.
Dana on “The Five” yesterday made a great point that Obama’s rallies look like an erectile dysfunction medication commercial. “Past his prime” indeed!
~ Brittany
Go Brit! Go! I followed your direction and saw your smiling face from the Rally! Bless your heart!
Mark Halperin @MarkHalperin
Per multiple Romney/GOP sources: Turnout in R areas strong all over the place in battlegrounds. Again:not validating accuracy, just sharing
Data the Romney Campaign is Looking At
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/332771/data-romney-campaign-looking-rich-lowry
Great Link glitter.. This is good data if it all is correct!
Good stuff, clearly good as far as it goes.
Would love to see some hard numbers from some dems to see what they are optimistic about.
The only thing about low turnout in college towns is that those folks may have voted early. As long as dem EV results are lower than last time that is OK as it means they truly have cannabalized their election day turnout.
Thank you, Glitter! Very interesting and encouraging. The first signs of our silent, but powerful election “storm”.
Tea Leaves from Wisconsin – Generally low turnout reported in central Milwaukee and Madison precints with huge lines of 2+ hours in suburban Milwaukee counties (the Walker firewall from June).
Now that makes me proud to be a “yinzer.”
[For those of you who don't know,"yinz" is second person plural in SW PA -- like using "youse" in Philly, or "y'all" in the south. So a person from the region, especially one who uses this grammatical construction, is called a "yinzer."]
Barone thinks at this stage young vote not coming out.
Adrian Gray @adrian_gray
Johnson county, Iowa is most Dem county in the state. Their county commissioner of elections said “lowest voting in 32 years” this morning.
Univ of Iowa territory. Heh
iowa and ohio dems that were gonna vote, already have in early vote…here comes the RR wave!!!
That’s the definition of voter cannibalism, right? I’m still fuzzy on that term.
~ Brittany
Correct, Brittany. You get all your voters who would have voted on election day anyway to vote early to make it look good. Then there’s a vacuum on election day.
The republicans tried to target people who *wouldn’t* usually vote on election day to vote early, which is why they are crushing it today.
Yes Fab. That’s exactly it.
Yep. Coming home to roost.
Anecdotal update from Wisconsin – My wife and I voted for Romney this morning. We were there an hour after the polls opened and I was vote number 550 in my precinct. I live in the heart of conservative Wisconsin in Waukesha County. People are pumped here. Turn out is going to be very, very strong.
Am worried about VG
According to the county commissioner of elections in Johnson County Iowa, he has seen the lowest turnout in 32 years. This is the most Dem county in the state. This tweeted by Adrian Gray.
that would be since… 1980
Good catch Mass!
Virginia
Michael Barone says– early vote down in heavily dem cities, and universities.
In Nebraska 02 – Election guy on radio said early voting in central Omaha precincts was down 40% from 2008. Republican spokesman after him said they now think probably a double digit Deb Fischer (R) win over Bob Kerry (D) for senate.
That’s a nice win. You could do worse than Kerry if you had to, but a republican is obviously better.
After Ben “cornhusker kickback” Nelson I don’t really think Kerry had a chance. And Kerry was very plain in an interview about a week ago that he would fully support Harry Reid = Doomed.
Not a big surprise on the Fischer-Kerry race…in South Dakota now, but was in Nebraska up until May and I always thought his candidacy was going to flounder. Nebraska is becoming increasingly less friendly to even conservative Dems.
New thread
I have about as diverse a following on twitter possible. liberals are very quiet right now. the reports of low turnout in strong dem, mostly white, areas are real.
“Keep calm!”
~ Brittany
Greg Gutfeld just said on The Five “If I hear the words Gallup and Pew one more time it better be because a horse broke wind”. LOL.
I wanted to drop a quick note on Bill Cunningham. He tells it like it is–he predicted McCain’s big loss (not a stretch I know), but was also down on Romney early. His humor isn’t for everyone, but he cracks me up. Anyway, everything I’ve seen and read (except the polls) gives me increased confidence in Ohio flipping to Romney, and I also see Iowa flipping. The state that worries me is Virginia. The polls got the early voting wrong in Ohio which skewed their polls. However, the Virginia polls showed movement towards Obama the past week (Sandy maybe or just the large amount of government workers). Northern Virgia will decide the election. If obama gets anything near his 2008 totals, he will win the state. I need to see what Jim Geraghty has to say as he always has a good pulse on Norther Virginia. We flip Ohio and Iowa, all we need then is Colorado as long Romney holds everything in the South except Virginia.
Voted R/R this morning in the Richmond area (first time voter, just because I despise O). The state will come down to Northern VA, but in the more Republican counties, things look good. Hopefully dem turnout stays low.
I replied to Mark Halperin
Mark Halperin @MarkHalperin
After talking today to Ds who have spoken to Obama pollster & Rs who have spoken to Mitt’s: Chicago sure of win; Boston thinks they CAN win
——
@MarkHalperin It’s not what you don’t know that gets you into trouble, it’s what you know for *sure* that ain’t so. –Mark Twain