Overall, early vote turnout OH up 2.44% in state. Down -4.1% in Obama/Kerry counties; up 14.39% in Bush/McCain counties.
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Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) November 06, 2012Almost any way I run EV numbers in OH, without counting D-R flips or indies, Romney has to make up 70k on Election Day=piece of cake
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Larry Schweikart (@LSchweikart) November 06, 2012
148 Comments
OHIO PRESIDENTIAL VOTE BY COUNTIES
http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20121106/NEWS010601/311060015/Ohio-presidential-vote-by-counties?odyssey=nav%7Chead&nclick_check=1
Is that absentee ballots?
Those numbers must be wrong, but I sure hope they aren’t
As I said in other thread, look at the number of precincts reporting as 1/3 – 1/2 have not for many counties, and some counties in that list have zero reporting. Also the cincy newspaper site that has that does not seem to be updating.
Thought early voting could not be counted until polls closed. I think they can be scanned so exults ar known immediately without carrying flash cards fom each polling place to county tabulation center.
I’d love to believe those numbers but I think it’s just their website manager making sure it all works. For example, Ashtabula: 1 precinct reporting and every voter picked Romney? Uh, I doubt it.
I love this site!! Below is a quote from Gannett regarding the article above. They have now pulled that page down.
Update IV: Gannett finally issued a retraction and an apology:
A Cincinnati.com front-page link to a chart with dummy data, created as a design template for election results, was inadvertently posted early Tuesday morning.
It purported to show early voting totals in Ohio counties. However, no votes have been counted yet – by law counting doesn’t start until the polls close.
Cincinnati.com regrets the error.
No Obama poll watchers here in Milford, NH. 5 of us. J
Hope you’re cheatin’.
Don’t go there. Not needed at all – just expose the dems shenanigans.
I know its a joke, but we are going to have to deal with some truly hysterical liberals having one big hissy-fit orgy starting about 9pm eastern. They’ll cling to anything that enables their irrational worldview.
There was a poll watcher in my place!
Just cleansed my soul. One independant switch from Obama to Romney. May there be many, many more!!
Purge complete – another indpendent switch from O to R. Father, mother, brother, sister, and wife (liberal) switched as well. Too bad we all live in IL. Won’t win this state but we have to fight the fights worth fighting. Blue state liberalism does not work.
well done
True patriot Ralph! GJ..
Thank you Mass liberty
Thank you!
If true…it is over.
UPDATE: I live in Kentucky in a precinct that is heavily Republican.
Our polls open here at 6:00 a.m. I got there at 5:55 a.m.
There were AT LEAST 100 people in line when I got there. It took 45 minutes to vote. When I left there must have been 150 people in line.
This NEVER happens.
Judging by this, the Republican turnout is going to be HUGE.
awesome! so we locked down kentucky….. (mild sarcasm — just for humor. Meanwhille I got power back last night and voted this morning in Northern Jersey, so I can prevent NJ from going blue…. I also voted enthusiastically, but unfortunately, my liberal friends and neighbors will outvote me……
OMG. Dogfish got there at 5:55 am and 100 people already in line. Amazing. Wow. Someone I work with got there with her husband at 4 am. He is an moderate Ind and she is a moderate Dem but they were ready to crawl over glass to vote Romney. I think they overdid it at 4 am. Hopefully a huge day and we will O and his insane sidekick Joe.
I really wish this blog had a like button so that I could like comments
Like
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btw you can always use +1
Arlington , mass (which is Cambridge lite)
I shove my ID in their face like I always do. They say”oh we don’t need to see that”. I say “yes, but you should. Both poll workers say to my astonishment “We agree with you!”
The soldiers are on the ground even in the people’s republic of Mass!!!
good to hear that there even in Mass there are poll workers that can see the need for integrity ion the voting process
Even massholes are nervous about this. Lets go!!!!
I agree —- I showed up with my passport and drivers license the first time I voted here, as my previous vote was in Canada. They laughed at me. Meanwhile, they ‘verify’ my identity by asking me to sign a book in a way which makes my signature look like a copy of my signature which is two inches away from where I am signing, Once (I think it was a school board election) they told me it didn’t ,match, so they asked me to sign again and make it look like the signature form my regostartion form. they helpfully showed me the ‘old’ signature so that I could do a better job at making it match. What a joke.
It wouldn’t surprise me that most poll workers would believe in voter ID, no matter what their state or party affiliation
My place (also in Mass) doesn’t even ask me to sign, they just ask for my address and name. One time the book was already opened to my address and my name was right on top, I could have easily just read it off of there, and they’d never know!
I am hoping Fauxkahontas aka Warren loses. Creepy witch. :-/
Can someone explain Ohio to me…if Repubs are heavily closing the early voting gap (by 250,000+) according to Rove, and Repub turnout on Election day is higher than Dems…why is Ohio not in Romney’s pocket at this point? Even when Rove has been pressed to pick the Ohio outcome, he says it’s going to be razor thin. Does he not believe his own numbers???
I guess they don’t know how many republicans shifted from election day to EV and how many dems did also. It’s all estimates. EV was 1.7M or so, so last time Obama probably had a 500K-600K lead…
Rove cant depress the vote. He does not want to get GOP too confident so they don’t turn out. From the EV numbers by my humble opinion Romney won the state Sunday.
Also, it is hard to tell how much voter fraud the unions/democrats will be able to get away with in Cuyogha/Cleveland area
I don’t believe they know the EV splits by party in OH, all they can do is infer GOTV efforts by red/blue counties. Somewhat imperfect.
Because of the polls.. and nobody is sure of the turnout.
what did Mccain win election day by in Ohio?
About 31% of the eventual vote is in, 1.75M or so…I’m thinking if Romne wins ED by 10% then he’ll win.
Reported to win Election Day voting by 100k.
McCain won on a low GOP turnout. What will happen today will be a huge GOP turnout. Since O’s lead has been erased (based on Rove et. al) things should go well today in OH.
Really? That high? I figured if Mitt wins ED vote by 5% he should be fine. The Dems can’t have that huge a lead in EV (I hope)…and considering almost 70% of the Ohio electorate will vote today, I don’t see why he’d have to win by 10%.
I’ll believe it when I see it, but if the actual margin after early voting is only Obama + 70k Democrat ballots (and keep in mind Romney will obtain more Dem crossover votes than vice-versa) then OH won’t even be close, every pollster out there include Ras will be made to look like a chump, and all the Dem recount lawyers will be able to go home early.
Crossover voting is key..Frank Luntz was on FNC this morning estimating the crossover GOP vote for Obama is 1% but the crossover Dem vote to GOP is 7%
If Romney wins the crossover vote by a 6% spread and indies by 10%+ he will be a happy man tomorrow.
It’s a big ???? I’ve got to go with my gut and say its a wash
1% sounds a little low, no? It will certainly vary state to state as well (definitely higher D->R crossover in the South than in the Midwest). If Romney wins Ohio, it will be from R enthusiasm making it a ~R+0 electorate and winning independents.
I don’t think it fair to say Ras will look like a chump unless the results are well outside their MOE. Early voting and low response rates makes it tough for even the best polling firms. The real chumps will be the garbage firms that have O up +5 or so.
Rasmussen will point to his partisan ID results and say “well looks like we should have believed our own numbers about the electorate instead of believing all these crappy polls that said the opposite.”
People are forgetting that BO won Ohio in 2008 by only 51.5%
He won by 51.5%?! That’s a massive blowout! Just kidding, I know you meant that was his total. He beat McCain by 4.5%.
Those are good numbers. But, I hope we haven’t taken our eye off VA. Gotta win it, too, and things have been dicey there. I’m here in FL and I have no doubt Romney carries it.
Early Vote in Virginia is showing big movement in Romney’s direction.
See the article at Breitbart.com
I will check it out. Thanks!
This evening:
1) Romney takes FL/NC/VA then takes NH and either PA or OH – early evening as he is at 270+, and if not NH then slightly longer evening til he takes one more battleground
2) Romney takes FL/NC but loses VA: longer evening as he needs PA or OH plus WI and either IA or CO
3) Romney takes FL/NC but loses VA, OH and PA: early evening most likely as he would need WI/IA/CO *and* NV or pull out MN, i.e. he’s done if he doesn’t take MN though you could hand on waiting for NV.
Romney will be fine…He has worked to hard and Republicans are voting today…
I would love to see Oregon go Romney in a landslide. I also want to see Akin win and Elizabeth Warren, the fake Indian, lose. Also that phonny Bill Nelson in FL lose.
Praying
There are some reports of technical glitches in ORCA. Saw it at Powerline, a few other sites. Nervous.
Are you sure it’s not just trolls? I wouldn’t believe it unless you’re hearing it directly from Romney volunteers that you know, or from the Romney campaign itself.
hes talking about the Philly black panther guys I am sure. Seen no other reports.
And I mean glitches in the app, not the project itself.
It’s from conservatives on powerline and from Dave-in-florida, who blogs at Ace of Spades. But i guess still just rumors.
Now that the word is out about ORCA they are going to have to be very very careful about security. Would be a prime hacker target in a re-election campaign even if there are no problems today.
+1
Long lines in D-2 in Maine.
Isn’t D2 he one that is more Republican than the others?
Any sense of what’s happening in ME-2? Would love to see that flip to Romney.
Where? Bangor or PI?
Democrats in full-fraud mode in Philadelphia
Article on powerline….. ‘Democratic Party operatives are evicting court-appointed Republican poll watchers from polling places in Philadelphia’….
Of course. It’s what they do. It’s how they roll. But there’s simply no way the fraud in Philly this year possibly could outstrip the fraud from ’04, when PA for several weeks leading up to that election was considered tight and “Fast Eddie” still was governor. They haven’t had enough time to gear up to go full Chicago ’60. Plus this time around, unlike ’04, Romney will win the I vote in PA, whereas Kerry crushed Bush among I’s. If Obama hangs onto PA it won’t be because of fraud. And Romney has a legitimate chance to win that state and to make this a pretty short night.
How can they legally evict them? Romney lawyers are standing by, i am sure…
30 minute wait to vote in Loudoun County, VA, this morning. Orderly, no issues, just a lot of folks showing up to vote. Counties to watch in Northern Virginia tonight. Arlington will be heavy Obama. No doubt about it. Fairfax .. if Mitt can keep the damage minimal here, it’ll be a success. Prince William and Loudoun should swing to Mitt, to start carving into the Arlington/Fairfax deficit. When watching the numbers tonight, remember, Arlington posts LATE. If Mitt’s ahead in VA early, watch for WHERE the votes have come.
Mitt won our house 3-0 today. We did our part.
In line with the fraud comment above it is always worrisome when big city dem precincts report late after seeing how the total is going. St. Louis is very bad about that. To be fair though in high pop areas with lots of precincts it probably takes a while to do the tallies and then re-check them.
I’m originally from MD, where 4 districts overrule the entire rest of the state. So, I’m familiar with watching for where the votes come from and how many dead people vote there.
If Mitt can get out of the 4 counties I mentioned anywhere near close, he’ll be in great shape.
2 more for Mitt from our house in Loudoun County too. Can’t wait for VA to turn red tonite!
Two for Romney/Ryan here in Albemarle County Virginia!
Two votes for R/R here in Warren County, VA. Small polling place, over 20 people in line in front of me at 5:42 AM. By the time the polls officially opened, there were probably 80-100 people in line total.
On break from working outside the polls in Fairfax County. Turnout in this precinct doesn’t look abnormally large. It is really, really cold outside. Two votes for R/R from my household.
Get out there and vote.
8:50 am, and I just cast my vote for Romney here in Cuyahoga county.
How are the lines looking?
Yeah folks on the ground in OH give us updates!
Lines were short, but a consistent flow of new people, On the way to the polling station, I counted 14 Romney signs and 1 Obama. In front and around the polling station there were probably 25 or 30 Romney signs, and 1 Obama. This is Parma, part of Cuyahoga.
PLEASE spread the word: Word to the wise (Romney/Ryan voters): IGNORE ALL Election Day projections on news sites. GO TO THE POLL and VOTE!!!!! Don’t be lulled, disillusioned, tricked, demoralized, or otherwise persuaded — GO TO YOUR POLL and VOTE!!!! You can ask Google where your polling place, if for some reason, you are still unsure.
This election isn’t going to be close. Romney in a mini-landslide. The only thing that will delay the calling of the race is the fact the leftist media eliminated exit-polling in 19 states, 18 of which are GOP wins.
Tom over the days you are the most optimistic guy I think I have seen.. Love it! Vote like never before, bring it!
Go over to Breitbart and see the video this morning of The New Plack Panthers helping to keep the election clean in Philly. The vido is from this morning.
Happens every cycle.. Its truly sickening…
Not sure its going to matter. This looks like Toomey/Corbett here in 2010. Huge margins in the West. It will be interesting how many votes they try to “correct” in Philly. However, the Governor is a Republican this year–no way they let any of this crap happen, not this year.
Another hopeful thought – in reading the internals in the Gallup poll last night I caught something very telling about the “Sandy” bounce. Gallup polls by region and stated that the east improved 6% for Obama, while the other three regions were basically flat from their last poll before Sandy. They imply that the Sandy bounce was primarily in the East (which Obama has locked up anyway, but for NH and PA). They show Romney up 4% in the Midwest, where the election will be won. Dick Morris did not even pick this up last night on Hannity.
Krauthammer did.. Honestly some of NYC is a war zone, I suspect those images snapped him right back.
This is a very interesting article in the NY Post. If true, and there is no reason to believe it isn’t, Obama is very worried about PA —
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/willie_or_won_he_HSQ4rahuha6TkgIFyJcy2J
PA is completely in play and I predict it falls in a shocker for R/R.. They deployed Clinton which is interesting but smart, he appeals to them. O couldn’t go as he would drag his own number down. Very Fascinating !
Here is an interesting experiment. Assume PA really is close (and Stephanie Cutter of team O let it slip last night that they think it is). Go to the RCP state averages and sort by margin. Look where PA is in the margins. R should get everything below PA’s margin (and perhaps PA). It’s knid of like PVI.
Looks good. I would not give him Nevada only due to machine politics of Clark County, but I’d give him the rest, at a minimum.
Comfortable win.
Since doing that takes out WI too, it is a pretty conservative screen and with the MOE of most polls. But if you give RR WI, then they can lose OH as long as they either IA or NH.
I still think it is impossible for R to take PA and lose OH. Unless things have really, really changed in OH since 2008.
Deploying Bubba Bill is more playing to the base instead of working on the center as they need to. And anyone of either party who shows up at an election day rally has too much time on their hands and is likely getting free hot dogs. Of course the same could be said for us on the net
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R’s coming to PA today. Weird, on election day. They must really think it’s close. I think the Susquehanna poll was right, it’s tied, and could break either way. No D has won the Presidency without PA in a long time, I believe.
O showed up in Indiana on Election Day in ’08. It could have pushed him over the top.
Not sure what to read into…maybe Mitt wants to empty the tank…it is in his personality.
Gibbs looking very somber this morning, tea leaves but a good sign.. He just was on fox and sounded very down, monotone, no excitement. Fascinating!
A little Blaming Bush…very interesting…..yes..hmmmm
Im not big on Tea leaves, but boy all the Dems on this morning just look like someone kicked their dog, and the R’s are almost flying off their chair at the camera excited.. Truly fascinating!
lol Beckel looking gooey eyed this morning with his lucky suspenders.. Somber.. He’s usually animated as heck, he’s soooooomberr…. lol love the Tea leaves.. Its fun!
Really? Or are you just saying that? Maybe he’s tired?
All of it is speculation, just fun! Its Tea Leaves, all stuff to pass the time as we watch the returns come in..
Who Gibbs? I admit, when I’m down emotionally AND tired…I look it…when I’m up emotionally and tired…you wouldn’t know it…al least in the short run.
Thats something we forget…these people have to be exhausted by now. I don’t read much into it.
If you’re exhausted about something but anticipate a wonderful outcome, there’s this adrenalin rush. You’re just wired from the excitement. It’s happened to me after working all night on something at work. . Sounds like this isn’t what you’re seeing in the Obama surrogates?
Could be that these guys never expected to be in this position. Hoping to eek out a win. I grant you, this is a little ” I can see the Virgin Mary in the grilled cheese”‘ but definitely different than in 08.
Wife and I voted in suburb of IL. Anecdotal, it was just after 7 a.m. and I have never, and I mean ever, in ’04 or ’08 seen a line at this polling place. I live in a solid repub suburb. No statewide races in IL. There was a line about 10 deep and people just started streaming in.
It used to be myself and one other person or two at a firehouse and that was always it. Much different feel this year.
Same thing here in KY… this state is not in play. I live in a heavily Republican district.
I showed up at 5:55 am and there were already 100 people in line.
This NEVER happens.
If this is an indicator, Republican turnout is going to be HUGE nationwide.
Final Rassmussen: R 49 O 48. Certain R 48, LIkely 1, Lean 1. Certain O 47, Likely 1. Indies R +14.
Looks like a minimum 51/48 IMO.
MM did Ras post the final Party ID #’s ? Curious if they are still R+5
He does that monthly..he is going D+2 conservatively. Him and Gallup being R +1, no matter what the spread, they will be considered the most accurate.
If R+1 is the true number at the end of the day, will be pretty amazing to see the final numbers..
As long as it isn’t Dave Wasserman-Schultz
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just voted in florida pinellas county at republican leaning precinct lines 10 times larger than 2008 and it’s raining
thanks for the update…… I hope this means that Connie Mack get elected as well
Once again, Black Panthers at the Philadelphia polling places…. but this time several former Navy Seals have shown up as well.
Go Seals!!!
Wow…could get ugly…wouldn’t want to be there.
Where did you hear abt the Seals showing up?
Fox had a story on it about 5 mins ago. Love the seals going in, true patriots.. This whole election cycle completely fascinating ! Yeah I keep saying it!
was curious about this myself…
On Pennsylvania. Very interesting that the online ad buy today that has Obama and Michelle ads does not run in PA, but does in MN, etc. I think the guys numbers must be so toxic there that they don’t even want to remind people Obama is on the ballot there, and pretend its Clinton.
Yeah Newt said that yesterday, they couldn’t deploy O out there because he would only hurt himself, sending Clinton is a smart idea.
Rob Portman. What are people’s thoughts on him?
I think if Romney wins he will be the de facto VP. The guy just comes across as Presidential to me.
Boring but could be the campaigns MVP.
I thought he was boring too, but after seeing him interviewed so many times, I really like him.
I’m in NW DC standing in line, and it is a pretty long line… I know that it is deep blue territory with politically motivates diehards, was hoping the lines would be much shorter to show a lack of enthusiasm.
I’ll take long lines all day long.. Crossovers are always good, with the lead in Independents R/R has it should make it interesting!
From what I have read Obama’s black base is motivated. It is his Latino and white supporters from 2008 who are not as motivated. And I would waste time voting as a resident of CA before I did in DC like you are doing
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They just showed a Black Panther in front of a polling place in Philadelphia again. Lame.
Yeah, I agree…but the last time it was caught on a camera phone if my memory serves me correctly…so I guess it is expected from the MSM..
I would rather see them not get as much coverage as it is mostly just a publicity stunt in a deep blue area. And either some intimidation is going on in which case it won’t decisively be proven, or not much is going on in which case it is not worth commenting on. Plus this stuff seems to be coming from a single source or traced back to same, so it is easy to blow it out of proportion.
I somewhat agree…could boil over to after the election. If BO wins, DOJ will look the other way. IF RR wins, couldn’t tell you what would happen.
Really funny story just ran on CNN. They had their reporterette complaining the the requirements for provisional ballots were not responsible because the demand that the voter fill out a form with tough questions like – What is your name? and Where do you live? She said with a straight face that it’s not reasonble to expect voters to know that stuff while under the pressure to vote. All in all – the lawyers will be out in force to try to invalidate Mitt’s big win.
I lament that there is no way I’ll be able to catch up on all the Battleground Watch threads today. But I’ll try to keep up! I want to thank Keith again for his immense service to the poll junkie public and to the Romney effort in general. Thank you! I’ll miss late night poring over tea leaves here….
Dean Chambers, master unskewer, seems to be hedging his bets, giving Romney just 275 ev:
http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-will-win-the-presidency-with-275-electoral-votes
–bks
That guy has not been a serious numbers cruncher the whole time. Being at the other extreme from Nate’s model still overshoots the middle where the truth likely lies. And with that extreme hedge he might just as well have saved himself hundreds of hours of time and only worked on unskewing Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Florida since those are the only battlegrounds he is claiming, i.e. just enough to limp over the line.
He can hedge all he wants.
Romney is going to win today, the only question is by how much.
What the thinking on Maine? Anyone from Maine or know about Maine here? I’ve heard R/R could get 1 vote out of there for district 2. Plausible?
Good morning everyone!
Going to be a great day today!
I was thinking after this is all over maybe Keith can invite us all over to his place for a little get together!
Come one over. Doors are open and the coffee is hot. Of course I’m at The Coffee Bean because my Internet is on the blink but that shouldn’t stop you!
Believe me when I say that I would be there if schedule permitted.
Would like to thank you personally for all you have done.
You’re welcome
3 more votes for RR here in Florida. We’re in a Republican/conservative area, but turnout is high so far. I talked to a poll worker and they said they had 100+ people in the first hour, which for our little area, is substantial. It’s usually a fraction of that. Our family almost always drives down to the polling place about ten in the morning, and it’s often just a handful of people. This time, there was 20-30 while we were there.
I think RR is turning out A LOT of their people all over the place, in small little areas like ours and in the big cities as well.
God grant that this thing is a massive landslide in Romney’s favor. I want a win (and I’ll take anything we can get) but a mandate election is what I’m cheering for!
As with others who have mentioned this, thanks Keith for all of your hard work. It is very, very appreciated!
From Somerset Hills New Jersey- our town remains 50% without power .Temperature dropped to 25 degrees last night. Voting ditricts were consolidated. We woke up in the dark to a cold house without light- not to worry! I went with my wife at 5:45 a.m. to vote and people were lined up around the building and literally running to the polls to vote. I realize we are heavily Republican in Somerset County, but I have never seen such entusiasm for predomiantly Romney supporters here. Yes, I know it is New Jersey, but if this entusiasm is what will be seeing in swing states, it is a great sign!
Rasmussen has his full cross tabs out and his RDI split is 36/40/24 for LVs. At the end of July he had 34/34/31.
Now compare to his all adults RDI breakdown.
October (latest): 39/33/27
July: 35/34/31
So the adult population moves from R+1 to R+6, but the LV sample moves from even to D+4. Wow, that Democrat enthusiasm gap REALLY widened. I know what happened, the debate performances followed by strong campaigning by Romney must have energized adults to identify themselves as Republicans and declare that they weren’t going to vote. Seriously though, going from all adults to LVs typically helps Republicans 0-3 points (0=2008, 1.5=2004, 3=2010), see the pattern here? Giving Dems a 10 point advantage when going from adults to LVs is absurd.
Guys, I don’t know which way this election is going to break. Never count out a desperate democrat and his creepy cult of personality. But I can tell you this, polling is officially broken. Rasmussen normally doesn’t mind going out on a limb, but he is so afraid of being the outlier when all the final polls are judged by the Nate Silvers of the world for “house effect” and “Republican bias” that he is COOKING HIS NUMBERS BEFORE OUR EYES. If he is doing this, what is everyone else doing? The cottage industry of political polling is teetering on the edge of self-immolation, and they know it. The best they can do is throw up their hands and say “Too close! Probably Obama! See you guys later!” before they run for cover with their tails between their legs.
Oh, and in case you’re wondering:
End of July (D+0): R48 O44 (4 other, 4 undecided)
Final poll (D+4): R49 O48 (2 other, 1 undecided)
Hmm…
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