I’ll be happy with 271.
Some updated early voting figures from Ohio, courtesy of the excellent Jake Tapper.
Ohio Secretary of State says 1.6 million Ohioans have already voted.— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) November 03, 2012
I mean, 270. One more than half, that’s all that matters.
There’s a county breakdown of the 1.6m available – anyone care to prepare an analysis as the SoS has not included 2008 comparisons.
Incidentally, whilst most of Europe is cheering for the wrong side, my corner of London will be staying up all night Tuesday hoping you guys do the right thing!
Thanks Adam. Europeans don’t understand the demographic situation here in America, so they think their socialism will work here. And are ignorant that it will collapse under demographic change in Europe, too.
Here is a spreadsheet that I put together from 2008 data through Today’s data.
This is Ohio’s Data
Nevads SOS has posted the final early vote tally as yesterday was last day (absentees still accepted I would think): Dem 307,877 Rep 259,913 Other 134,055, so a 48000 Dem advantage without knowing Ind breakout. I don’t know enough about NV politics to say if a 48000 deficit could be overcome but the results do show Rep beat Dem in every county except Clark (Las Vegas).
nope…nevada will be the one that gets away…unless we get a swamp of votes on tuesday
Maybe…need an incredible turnout and R break from indies
Here’s what Ralston (a Democrat but recognized as the leading authority on all NV matters political) has to say:
NV is still hanging by a thread. GOP could still get this state if 11/6 turnout comes in as expected.
Washoe County, Nevada (swing county):
In 2008 the Early Vote was:
In 2012 the Early Vote is:
In 2008 Dems won the Washoe County early vote by about 11.8% which interestingly was almost identical to Obama’s overall margin in Washoe County (12.6%) and his overall margin in Nevada (12.4%).
In 2012, Romney is running 12.25% better than 2008. Based on the predictive value of Washoe County (Early Vote) Nevada appears to be dead even.
Yep, that’s why Washoe is the key swing county in the state, as it goes, so goes the state.
I was looking at that data and compared it to the exit poll data from 2004/2008/2010 in terms of who voted for who. In 2004 the DRI split had D 90%(Kerry) with 10% crossover, R 93%(Bush) with 7% crossover, and I 54%(Kerry) with 42% crossover.
Taking JUST these totals and assuming an election closely aligned with 2004 you get the D=277,089, R=18,194, I=72,390 for Obama, which is 367,673 total or 52.2% total vote for early voting. Then you get for Mitt D=30,788, R=241,719, and I=56,303, total of 328,810 or 46.8% of early voting.
The spread is only at 38,863 votes for the Democrats with that kind of crossover and split. 2008 is worse with 55.2% for Obama and 43.1% for Mitt, but that scenario isn’t happening.
HOWEVER, if you take into consideration the polling going on now with Independents in Nevada, the splits from polling orgs show an average of 56% to 43% in FAVOR of Romney. So lets look at the early vote with this lens: I (R)=75,071 and I (D)=57,644 and you get a vote percentage of 50.3% Obama to 49.5% Romney IN JUST THE EARLY VOTE TOTALS.
Now this may all change on election day, but just look at the independents from 2010, it showed a complete reversal of independents from previous years, and Romney seems to have accelerated it. If the Republicans have a good turnout in Nevada on election day and the independents stay with us, we win by a hair.
BTW the early vote DRI split is 44/37/19. Which is D+7, WHICH is much more Democratic than in previous elections, except 2008 where it was D+8. The Republican percentage is also much more prominent than in previous two elections too. But if you look at the exit polling the Democrats for the last three elections were 35, 38, 35 while the Republicans bounced all over from 39, 30, 33. It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out.
i wanna see the 3 people who say rommy wont break 200…i hope i never get that partisan
I saw that and really hope it is just idiots messing with the poll and people don’t actually believe that…sort of scares me whats going to happen if Romney takes 300+…I’m in Philly and there are calls for rioting…
Did Nate Silver just tweet to cover his tail?
Yes. And the thing is he is the guy in charge of analyzing things. He can’t just say oh I got garbage data therefore my model didn’t work. The whole point is that his model is supposed to work on metrics that are accurately measurable, otherwise all he is, is just another Dick Morris. At least Dick Morris doesn’t go around pretending to be something he isn’t.
What did he tweet?
The number is 317. I’m from the future. It’s great here.
Well if you get time could you check the lottery numbers for next week and let me know!!??
The temporal police frown on that sort of thing sorry. They know no one will believe me about the election.
Why so stingy at the top end? If Romney makes it to 310 then obviously the whole narrative was not only bogus but in gross and irredeeemable error. And if they narrative was in error that badly then why is 330 to 350 unthinkable? I would have liked to see a higher top end range on this poll.
no matter what we’re doing the Dems are still going to be around… lol
I wanted to vote 150-400 so that I could have perfect accuracy and be named the Nate Silver of the next election!
HAH! By your handle are you stuck in the State of Mass or in Sunday Mass; I ask because I recently fled RI, after also being stuck in Mass for 7 years…
Hi Keith, I’m a British conservative from London who’s become addicted to your site. It grieves me how almost all Europeans are militantly pro-Obama and unable to see the reality of his four years in office. The liberal press in Europe adore him and it drives me mad watching the US election coverage of the BBC etc. Thanks so much for this website which has kept me sane and been absolutely fascinating to read. You’ve done a brilliant job. What happens in the US affects the rest of the world and I hope and pray Romney will start a conservative trend across the western world (sadly our ‘Conservative’ party has moved to the left under David Cameron who is obsessed with big government, welfarism, climate change and gay marriage, and us conservatives feel unrepresented even in the UK). I’m delighted that Romney now looks certain to win and hope it’s a landslide. I’ll enjoy pollsters and media having egg on their face on both sides of the pond on Wednesday morning!
How refreshing to see a sane European opinion. I’ve spent time in Europe and there have been too many instances of having to hear from those who are so left of center, they would make Lenin blush. Welcome aboard!
Could not agree more. A Romney presidency is essential for USA, but it also is for the world. The world needs real leadership, especially with regard to the economy.
As I’ve said before, I experience the same thing over here in The Netherlands. I’ve seen people look like I was dirty when I told them i strongly support the Republicans and want to see Obama replaced. I tell them several of the multitude of reasons, but people either simply don’t understand it or have to confess that they do not know anything about American politcs or culture. So when vote come tuesday, vote a bit for me too wouldya?:) Ill be confident but slightly stressed watching the results that night.
Hi All. I´m a German conservative and I am also fed up with German bias for Obama. Can´t say it better than Rupert from London. The election coverage in our German news media is unbelievable, ONLY kool-aid-drinkers. Obama is the chosen one, the savior, modern and progressive; Romney is the cold-hearted capitalist and a cannibal who would take the US back to the 1950s. No coverage about the terrible economic situation in the USA, no coverage about Benghazi but BIG, BIG coverage of Hurricane Sandy and Obama-Christie. When Obama was speaking in Berlin back in 2008 and 200.000 people attended, I started to realize, that our country had gone completely nuts. I saw a poll today, that in Germany the vote for US President would be 91-4 in favor of Obama. I am ashamed about that and I hope and pray that the American people will make a wiser decision, come November 6.
lol, I would think the Euro crisis would cause the Europeans to see the value in havinga numbers guy like Romney as leader, but perhaps old habits die hard!
Considering that millions of Eastern Germans suffered for 40 years under Socialism/Communism until the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989 I am even more ashamed. Without conservatives like Reagan or Bush41, who was a big supporter of German reunification in 1990, while the English and French governments were opposed at first, the wall might still stand. Unfortunately, 22 years later, too many German people seem to have forgotten about this. And when you look at the European Union today, with states like Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Belgium and Italy bankrupt or at the brink of bankruptcy, you get an impression, how the USA will look after four more years of Obama. A European style, social-democratic/socialist, progressive, nanny welfare state.
My impression is that right now Angela Merkel is the bullwark of economic conservatism in the world ( not that there is too much competition). I hope Romney could join her pretty soon.
I wish Obama would be available in 3 days to consider a political career in Europe if he is so popular over there.
Angela Merkel, whom I voted for, is the bullwark of economic conservatism, that´s right. But her social policies tend to be left of center and always embrace the status quo and an ever increasing welfare state. Otherwise there is no chance for a conservative party to win an election in Western Europe. Real conservatives like me have no political homeland in Western Europe. Angela Merkel ran first in 2005 against the then ruling left Social Democrats, which had completely messed up after seven years in power. She started with a strong conservative agenda, was roundly and viciously critized by the media and the Lefties who tried to somehow stay in power and nearly lost the election after leading by about 20% at the start of the campaign. After that, you never heard of a conservative agenda anymore…
I’m so glad people like you and Rupert are over there, Martin.
Thanks Colvinus. I am very glad, that I have found this page. The US election in three days is the most important election of our lifetime, I am very sure about that. If Obama wins, the US will continue its slide into a European-style socialist welfare state with high unemployment, skyrocketing debt, ever increasing public sector and welfare state and soon reach the tipping-point of no-return when more than 50% of the population rely on some sort of government handouts and the takers finally outnumber the makers. If you can´t win elections on substance, change the electorate !! That is what President Obama is doing in the USA. By the way, a friend of mine from Tennessee runs another great conservative page. Look it up, http://www.reclaimfreedom.org
Bless you Rupert.
I am with Barone and called a 310+ total right after the first debate….
Okay someone actually voted for under 200.
No Biden would have it — 845 to 462
ROTFLMAO!!! Am I the only one who thought that was funny as h*ll?
Axelrod, Plouffe, Messina and Cutter (the four horses of the apocalypse)!
Speaking of the apocalypse, the fanning out of the 100 surrogates from Ohio last night reminded me of the Demonic Horsemen of the Apocalyse.
Keith, you’re the best always keeping it interesting. Thanks!
Thanks for the compliment
Holy cow. Overtime!
Can you imagine if they lost 20-12? The irony would be too much to bear.
I’m exhausted. 3OT. For the win! Lets carry the momentum forward to Tuesday.
You may not like the news, but at least this is a rational analysis.
D+6 *is* troubling, though the Reps should gain at least some back Tuesday.
I think most of us expected an NV loss already
Keith (or anyone) is the poll referred to by this Breitbart the ‘old’ Susqhena (10/18) or a new one?
I hope it is new. If PA goes ‘R’ – lights out!
it appears (from their website & tweets) that the poll ref’d on Breitbart is the 10/18 poll BUT they are releasing one to coincide with Romney appearance in PA. I do not believe in ‘coincidence’ so suspect the new poll will show similar + Romney trend in PA – or so I pray!
Pittsburgh Tribune Review to release new SP&R poll in Keystone State Sunday to coincide with Romney visit to Southeast Pa.— SP&R (@SusquehannaPR) November 03, 2012
I went for 266, but I am hoping CO proves me wrong and Romney gets to 275
Obama is getting frantic to get some $. look at what he sent. http://i46.tinypic.com/2m26dtz.png%5B/IMG
I was talking to someone today about this…juxtapositioning the Obama and Romney campaign email tones I would have to most certainly say Romney sounds cool and collected and Obamas rail about needing more money…doesn’t match the MSM Poll lead narrative at all.
apparently his crowds are diminishing!
That was only Stevie Wonder by himself, and poorly advertised….Obama wasn’t there.
A little divine intervention there by Touchdown Jesus. By the way, Keith, is there a Twitter account for the site?
my vote is over 310.
I’m just really getting annoyed/concerned that these BS polls will ultimately create the aforementioned bandwagon effect. Let’s face it, the majority of the electorate doesn’t look into the internals of these polls like people here do. I’m hopeful that this won t dampen enthusiasm, but I just want these things to stop coming out. Personally I just get more angry and motivated to vote. I hope the general public feels the same.
I agree….that’s why I wish they would just not have them at all. i would rather be in the dark right now than have this steady drip-drip-drip of bad battleground state polls.
I predict March 22 (322)…
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