For the fourth consecutive day Republicans outpaced Democrats in Washoe County in-person early voting. Republicans cast 3613 votes for a 39.4% share while Democrats cast 3429 ballots for a 37.4%. The expected Thursday ramp-up increased turnout 19% over the Thursday result with 9162 ballots cast. Republicans now trail in-person early voting by 646 ballots. But the net gain of 184 ballots extends Republicans overall lead with the combined absentee and mail-in early ballots. The aggregate Washoe lead now stands at 375 more ballots cast by Republicans than Democrats, a far cry from the 12k advantage Democrats enjoyed in 2008. Washoe’s going red people … get used to it. If Romney is winning a majority of the Independent vote and the Clark GOP keeps its close . . .
Big contrast in the running tallies
| 2012 thru Day 12 | 2008 Through Day 12 |
|---|---|
| Dem – 39700 (40.9%) | Dem – 43357 (47.86%) |
|
GOP – 39054 (40.3%)
|
GOP – 31711 (34.99%) |
| NP – 18202 (18.8%) | NP – 15570 (17.18%) |
We see the election over election change in Democrat turnout is down -3657 ballots while the change in GOP turnout is up +7343, a net 11,000 gain for the GOP versus 2008. The enthusiasm gap continues to grow in Washoe County and Democrats are on the run in Reno. Having erased Obama’s early vote advantage, this type of swing will go a long way to erasing Obama’s overall ~23k vote Washoe County win in 2008, half of which came from the early vote.
35 Comments
NV would be a very nice steal!
Anyone have cross tabs for Washoe Independents?
Also, what is the opinion of TCJResearch? They have new polls tonight showing Romney up in OH and WI
Republican-backed. I’m not sure what you can take away from that fact. They seem to have a real low profile, so it’s not as if someone is funding them in order to cite them all the time like libs cite PPP all over the place. Hard to say.
No cross tabs so no real credibility.
Forgive my ignorance, but what exactly is a cross-tab? TCJ Research, for what it’s worth, has Obama up 49.7 – 47.2 in Nevada. But shows Romney with a 16 point lead among Nevada independents:
http://tcjresearch.wordpress.com/2012/10/31/tcj-research-nevada-polls-barack-obama-50-mitt-romney-47/
Wenzel Strategies released Romney up 3 in Ohio today (up from +1 in days after Denver) and down 2 in Wisconsin . Another low-profile R pollster, but inexplicably highly-rated by the great Nate Silver. http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/265355-gop-pollster-romney-up-in-ohio-closing-in-wisconsin
13 point swing: I’m seeing that number a lot of places.
Nice! Been waiting up for this report, thanks Keith!
Keith… awesome work with the site.. you deserve all the success you’ve been having lately! Will you be posting Clark County numbers tonight? Thanks!
probably not. They don’t usually come out until 1am or 2am ET. I’m hopefully fast asleep by then
i had an idea for an ad…advertise on spanish radio about how obama is for gay marriage, very unpopular in traditional conservative cultures. But also divisive. I wonder if they did anything like that.
I was surprised it didn’t come up in one of the debates. Instead we got questions about abortion–the wedge issue that could possibly peel voters from Republicans. Somehow wedge issues that could peel voters of Dems don’t seem to come up.
I am new to this site but I really love it. I like the way you guys use hard data and numbers…so refreshing from most of the garbage out there about the election. Thanks!!
And we thank you for visiting!
I thought people might want a quick update from the ground in Ohio. My wife and I voted early today in Ohio for Romney/Ryan. We live in Knox County Ohio (a rural Republican stronghold northeast of Columbus) We were shocked how many people were there. It was 3:30 pm on a weekday and I counted 29 people voting in the board of elections office during the 20 minutes we were there. Very surprising to see that many voting early today. There were only 28,000 votes cast in Knox County in 2008.. so that many people on a random mid-afternoon seemed like a lot. Certainly a positive sign since Romney should carry Knox County by 20-25%. Obviously, take it with a grain of salt.. but I found it interesting enough to post.
Thanks for the report. We really appreciate it.
Anecdotal + Anecdotal + lots more anecdotals = Emerging trends and validation
Don’t recall many positive anecdotes in 2008
Obama campaigned in Nevada today. Would have expected to see a huge Dem spike today, no?
These results are Washoe County. Clark County is where Obama builds his lead
According to this Tweet, Obama got 2,600 in Green Bay, WI and 4,500 in North Las Vegas today. Not very good numbers for a sitting President seeking reelection 5 days before election day.
Sorry, forgot the Tweet.
His supporters have all already voted.
Wow. That’s a NYTimes reporter tweeting that. His boss must be furious. Quite revealing that NYTimes writer would admit such a thing.
grey…well, it’s not like it’s on the front page of the Times….it’s buried in his Twitter account.
@Brad that’s not the point. The point is that ANYONE IN THE MSM would admit such a thing anywhere! Mark Landler wrote it, but he certainly isnt the only MSM member to be thinking it.
Hopefully we get good realistic approximations of crowd sizes at the rallies of each candidate this weekend because I believe it will signal who wins the election. We saw McCain’s crowds shrivel during the final stretch in ’08 as the base was giving up. With the “magic” gone we could be seeing this now with Obama’s base, an important segement of which (students and those under 25) are historically disinclinded to vote.
So Republicans have closed the Washoe in-person early voting gap by 12.5 points over 2008.
Statewide 2008 margin for Obama? 12.5%
Good trend line.
OK, so this is great news for Washoe County! Only question is – will it matter? Clark appears to have a D+60K lead, and I thought anything above D+45K means close to impossible for Romney. I like the fact that we’re keeping things competitive with Washoe, and forcing Obama to spend money here, but are we setting ourselves up with false hope in the Silver State?
Jon Ralston, a Dem who knows Nevada, thinks Romney still has a chance. Odds are not good, IMO. NV does not bring romney to 270.. It would be icing on the cake as part of a much bigger victory. Again, IMO.
No one expects President Obama to win Nevada as convincingly as 2008. The Obama strategy for Nevada is to keep Washoe County close, and put away the state in Clark County. Certainly, early voting for the Dems is NOT as robust as 2008, and Romney is making some gains, but the President did win the 2008 vote in Nevada by over 120,000 votes.
Clark is in; DEM 15,694, REP 9,980, Other 6,954. Not good. DEMs now up +60k. Was almost exactly as projected in last post yesterday. Expect tomorrow to be DEM 17,500, REP 11,500 and Other 8,000 for final CC early vote DEM +66k.
If tomorrow’s est is correct then final early voting would be DEM 48.2% REP 32.5% and Other 19.0%. In ’08 it was DEM 51.8% REP 30.6% and Other 17.6%.
Expected to see a spike with obama’s campaign stop in nv today
FWIW, Ralston’s favorite pollster Mellman declares that Obama is winning by 6 points… with a lead among independents of 24%.
http://ralstonreports.com/blog/democratic-pollster-says-obama-6-nevada#.UJNa_UZup3I
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[...] Along these lines keep an eye on Bob Krumm’s site for an in depth and daily analysis of two key counties in Nevada. The early voting data he is seeing is not a good sign for Obama, who is supposedly leading in the RCP average of polls in this state. Take Bob’s Washoe County update from yesterday: [...]