Another strong day for the GOP up north casting 3128 ballots compared to 2841 for the Democrats. Total ballots cast were 7679, down about 1300 day-over-day supporting the evolving story that the expected second week blow-out was not in the cards after the strong first week performance. Despite the muted second week performance thus far the final two days should will almost certainly see a nice pick-up in activity. Most concerning is the Democrats performance since this is their strength and enthusiasm questions continue to mount. Although in my count, today’s net gain for the GOP only shrinks the Democrat lead to 830 for in-person early voting, this net gain nearly erases the overall lead Democrats held going into today when including absentee and mail-in ballots. An all-around great day for Team Nevada in Washoe County.
Big contrast in the running tallies
| 2012 thru Day 12 | 2008 Through Day 12 |
|---|---|
| Dem – 36271 (41.3%) | Dem – 38329 (48.89%) |
| GOP -35441 (40.3%) | GOP – 26913 (34.37%) |
| NP – 16082 (18.3%) | NP – 13161 (16.79%) |
We see the election over election change in Democrat turnout is DOWN -2058 while the change in GOP turnout is UP +8528, a net 10,586 gain for the GOP versus 2008. Do you know what an enthusiasm gap looks like? Well now you do. Having erased Obama’s early vote advantage, this type of swing will go a long way to erasing Obama’s overall ~23k vote Washoe County win in 2008, half of which came from the early vote.
113 Comments
I like it, need more!
Look at that independent share just keep edging up! I’ve seen independents split all over the place for NV. What seems to be the most accurate?
(By the way, I’ve been lurking for about two months- I am NOT a troll from the recent crop of users from RCP!)
Do you have a link to compare to 2008?
Can anyone suggest what might be a reasonable number for us to be down by overall after NV early voting in order to make it up and win on election day?
about 35000k down with 2 days of early voting i think fyi 97000 inde voted already need to get a good pct number to go to us
So according to the M. Barone article on Wash. Examiner, if Obama were to win NV, one key part of it would have to be a D+80K advantage in Clark County. Sounds like Clark County is well below those numbers and not likely to come close to 80K in the next 3 days of early voting. So with Dem advantage in Clark being down and the rest of state outside of Reno-Sparks and LV being conservative, is what is happening in Washoe right now likely to translate into a Romney victory? I know no guarantees, but significantly increased probability?
Obama is to be in NV tomorrow, so if Dems don’t see a spike out of that…
Unfortunately, that is not true.The 80K Clark number is based on 2008, but remember Obama won by 14 points. No one expects him to win by 14 pts this time around, so they don’t need 80K. I think anything over 45K is not good for Romney. It Obama can bank 45K overall, Romney will have to win a good chunk of the independents to win.
So, as you point out Obama won NV in 2008, and according to Keith’s “Big Contrast in Running Tallies” table Dems early voting turnout in Washoe County is down 7.59% vs 2008 and Rep turnout is up 5.93% for a difference of turnout from 2008 of 13.52% based on Washoe County results. So if you extrapolate Washoe County turnout to the rest of the state that means that Obama’s winning margin in 2008 (14%) minus the extrapolated turnout based on Washoe County results (13.52%) would leave Obama with a projected winning margin in 2012 of 0.48%. And that is without considering the common contention that undecided voters typically break disproportionately towards the challenger, that NV has a relatively high Mormon population, that Republican turnout has historically been much higher on election day than in early voting, and that Washoe County is one of only two Democratic strongholds in NV so it’s a somewhat biased (against Romney) base from which to extrapolate. Unless there’s something fundamentally wrong in my thinking I’d say that NV is looking pretty win-able to me.
Romney is down roughly 35k in early voting and absentee balloting throughout the state:
http://nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2500
He should win all counties but Clark. Mccain lost three including Clark with an overall loss by 120k votes in the state. Bush won by 35k in 2004 by only losing Clark (35k defeat there). Romney is down roughly 50k right now in Clark. It’s doable, but he needs a soft Democrat showing next couple days and a strong turnout statewise by the GOP on election day.
” Unless there’s something fundamentally wrong in my thinking I’d say that NV is looking pretty win-able to me.”
Ralston (see down below) says the flaw is there are 90,000 more dem registered voters this year than 2008, and the indies are going to break just about even.
The Salem Statesman Journal has endorsed Romney for President! This is pretty amazing considering they are a very liberal paper. I was told they have not endorsed a Republican in decades. This was a paper whose editorial board was championing gay marriage as early as the 1990s. Salem is the 3rd largest city in Oregon and is by far the most conservative of Oregon’s three largest metro areas. Marion county went to Bush about 55/45 and Obama and McCain split it about 50/50. This is still pretty amazing though! The Oregonian, Oregon’s largest daily has declined to endorse.
http://www.statesmanjournal.com/article/20121031/OPINION/310310078/Editorial-Give-Romney-chance-Obama-had-his?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|Home|p
I live about 70 miles north of Salem up I-5 and have relatives who live close to Salem. This is a big deal.
Oregon is in play baby! I think Washington is too. I heard Medved talking about that possibility earlier today.
The “weird” TJC research group has Oregon 47-45 O. This fits. Wow.
so right now we are around down 35k with what 3 days of EV or 2 days? 97k Indie voters this looks like it can be close maybe a Bad Jobs report remind everyone the High unemployment in that State?
One thing I do know is that almost every Mormon (5-10% of NV population) would crawl, hands and knees, on the hot Mojave desert asphalt to cast their ballots for Romney. Things are looking good.
my only concern is 2010. I think RR is bout to win this election in a landslide of atleast 4pts pop vote and over 300 ec votes but if we could not win NV in 2010, how can we now? I think fraud is rampant in NV. More so than even in OH. I think RR wins so big, they dont need NV. i also think thats a good thing.
This is probably the last year that Nevada will be considered a swing state. It’ll be blue by 2016. It already leans left. Too many Californians bringing their values to Nevada and lots of Mexicans.
“lots of Mexicans.”
This is the driver of California’s democratc engine that plays a large role in shaping what CA is now. Why would people move to NV and take dem values with them when CA is awash in democracts and their values? If people are moving it’s because they’re disatisfied with something about CA that NV has. So who and why would people move? (hint: a 5 letter word starts with T). Some of their social values may remain democratic such as environmental issues and moderate positions on other social issues(which the national GOP has all but ignored) but I’d bet they remain open to a moderate GOP message(which is something we haven’t heard in awhile from the GOP). The immigrant vote though if it continues its fast rate of growth could shape NV as a solidly blue state.The question is will it end in the same result as CA in a few decades?
“fraud is rampant in NV”
Fraud is likely rampant in any state that is close and that democracts need to win to protect their incumbent.
The candidate was a big problem in 2010. Angle was terrible.
yep, Mormon turnout in the Nevada caucuses/primary was off the charts.
They are 7% of the population. Nevada is basically going to come down to comparing the Latino vote vs the Mormon vote. Romney will get 95% of the Mormon vote. Obama will get 65% of the Latino vote. If the mormons, whose population numbers about half the number of voting age latinos in Nevada, out-vote enough to whittle this down to a wash, then Romney will be in a position to win.
Probably not every Mormon, Obama will get Harry Reid’s vote.
ya did think about that
Clark County – results through 10/30… GOP is turning out registered voters for early/absentee voting at a HIGHER percentage than DEMs.
125,470 v 313,110 registered GOP = 40.0%
176,933 v 481,538 registered DEM = 36.7%
those #s look great. we have to be winning NV with that and washoe county #s!
Still down by 50k votes correct? Can Romney make up in other parts of the state?
NS – yes still down by 50k in EV in Clark. For the rest of the state excluding Clark & Washoe, the GOP has a registration advantage of about 35k votes over the DEMs.
Thanks. So R has to win independents big time
did any one else notice the mention that RR were watching NM and that it was only a few points up for O now?
i noticed that earlier too!
And they’re apparently watching WA and OR. Every western state except California may be in play. Just like anything else not in the NE besides NH is in play.
Washoe County — early voting results are just about 50/50 as Keith has indicated. Party registration in that county is also about 50 / 50.
what area are the mormon population in most is it reno or Clark?
Mostly in Clark and in many of the rural communities like Mesquite, Elko, and Fallon, just to name a few. Reno has a much larger than average number but isn’t quite as strong when you consider the others.
Oregon! Obama 47 Romney 45. D+5
What were the internals of Oregon in 2008?
http://tcjresearch.wordpress.com/2012/10/31/tcj-research-oregon-barack-obama-47-mitt-romney-45/
For what its worth I was polled for this one.
Keith is quiet. I think the poor guy is catching up on well-deserved sleep! He has done a huge service to the nation and to conservatives by creating this web site and conducting it with brilliance and integrity.
Not sleeping yet but heading there soon. What did I miss? It’s impossible to keep up on the comments and emails like I used to. Apologies to all. It’s been a crazy week. We went over 1 million visitors the other day and are averaging 100k per day the last two days. Unreal.
Democracts use sites like these to fine tune their message and find out what the republican crowd is thinking. I’m sure the press uses it as fodder for stories as well…concerns of the republican electorate, etc.
That’s just because you’re so awesome at what you do here! Thank you so much for the blog and all the work you do. And thanks to everyone that provides thoughtful incite and number crunching. The internet is the great equalizer for the mighty MSM message and could prove to be the salvation of The Republic by breaking the media hegemony that exists.
Fyi, I check your site or refresh my page view at least 50 times per day. I don’t know if that is counted as 50 diferent visitors or somethings less.
Nevada — its going to come down to turnout on election day and what % Romney gets from the Indy vote plus he will need HUGE turnout on the non Clark/Washoe counties.
I think the trend looks as though Romney has at least stopped the 2008 EV disaster but will still need an incredible election day turnout..
I have to honestly say, I don’t think Romney will win NV. I do however think he will win CO, IA, WI, OH, FL,NC,VA, maybe MI but that’s a stretch and maybe PN, another stretch, but anything is possible. But getting back to NV…the Democrat machine that Harry Reid has created in NV will be hard to overcome. He has the huge union vote in Vegas ties up tight for himself and Obama. It will take a massive turnout effort for Romney to win and if it were close, Reid would find some way to keep Romney from winning. Neither Reid or Obama can’t stand Romney so that is one state they can manufacture anything. This is why I am for term limits! Any Senator or Congressman needs to be term limited if not we get these huge power grabs for years on end. And it happens on both sides but more so on the Democrat side. They pick a few states that are heavily unionized and capitalize on it, or some of these large liberal states that overwhelm any Republicans in the state, such as CA, NY, IL and so on. Until we have term limits we will always be fighting these silly battleground states. I favor the Electoral College but I think it needs some updating. It seems that only a few states get to really decide and that’s not fair to everyone else. But also the Popular Vote option would lead to even more problems because Democrats would run up the tally in large, heavily populated states.
Party registration is like a D+8 for 2012, so its a tough state with the Dirty Harry voter machine. But there is always hope, right. Like I said somewhere else here, it will come down to turnout and where the Indy vote lands. There was a Gravis poll recently in NV that had Obama up by 1, but Romney over Obama with Independents by almost 2 to 1. That is what it is going to take.
Republicans out-voted Democrats in Carson City in week 1, by a margin of 4628 to 3368, in week 2, 1330 to 976
So in Carson City, Republicans have a 5958 to 4344 lead. That is pretty dang big for this being a swing county.
If the Republicans can hold Washoe to a tie in EV, they will win it on election day.
Carson City is a pretty small county, but every little bit counts. Remember there will probably be 900k to 1m votes in NV this year. I am confident that Washoe will end up close to a tie in EV.
It’s only because its one of the two counties in Nevada that are swing– went for Bush in ’04 and Obama in ’08. Washoe being the other.
The fact of the matter is that in Nevada only 49.5 percent fo the voting age population showed up last time around, and Obama’s overall EV margin is way down from last year. RR is within striking distance, easily.
I still think that Nevada goes to Obama. I have Romney over 300 electoral votes, but not winning Nevada. Clark county gets bigger and bigger every year. It’ll be too much to overcome.
Here’s some numbers from TCJ Research. They are a Republican pollster, but it looks like they are trying to be accurate. They claim to be the most accurate pollster in 2010.
National: Romney+3
Oregon: Obama+2
Minnesota: Obama+3
Colorado: Romney+4
Nevada: Obama+3
Wisconsin: Romney+2
Ohio: Romney+3
Pennsylvania: Obama+1
Virginia: Romney+3
http://tcjresearch.wordpress.com/
Now this is all believable!
they aren’t polling IA or NH?
That’s all in line with what I would predict today. Dang, PA down to 1% Is this another tease?
I notice that none of these polls are on 538, lol.
that’s because this is not a real polling outfit
Peter, what counts as a “real” polling outfit then? What is your criteria?
According to Peter.
Who are these guys, anyway? The numbers make an enormous amount of sense, especially when you match them to what the candidates are doing right now, and the general feel of the election.
Sorry if anyone posted this but here is a poll from Oregon: Obama +2. Don’t know if they are any good. http://tcjresearch.wordpress.com/2012/10/31/tcj-research-oregon-barack-obama-47-mitt-romney-45/
With the undecideds breaking to Romney, it could end up 49-49. Very close and very possible Romney could eek out a win.
I looked at their samples and it seems reasonable especially if you look to Gallup. TCJ seems to be sampling based on realistic turnout! Thanks for letting us know about them.
Ok, so I’ve been playing with the Iowa numbers a bit. Here’s what we know from 2008:
(an inactive registered voter (RV) means that mail from the state government does gets returned, so the State is not sure whether the person still lives in the state, but the person is still registered to vote)
2008 statistics
RV october 2008: 36D-29R-36I
RV active october 2008 :35D-30R-35I
Party ID actual voters: 37D-32R-31I
Absentee/Early votes: 46D-29R-25I (nominal gap: 94K vote advantage Democrats)
Breakdown Independents: 56D-41R (+15 Dem)
Final numbers: D54%-R44% (nominal gap: 146,561 vote advantage Obama)
Based on the records of Iowa I get this for 2012:
2012 statistics
RV october 2012: 32D-31R-37I
RV active october 2008: 32D-33R-35I
Party ID actual voters: ? (not known now)
Absentee/Early votes till now: 44D-32R-24I (nominal gap: 61k advantage D)
Breakdown Independents: ? out of 3 recent polls Romney is up 12 points in one poll and behind 2 and 4 points in the other two. Although mixed results, all very different from 2008.
2008 Vote on election day:
D= 318,273 (32,41%)
R=334,356 (34,05%)
I=329,434 (33,55%)
Total= 982,063
RV 2012 compared to 2008
D= -44,320
R= +55,991
I= +20,297
RV active 2012 compared to 2008
D= -74,534
R= +35,178
I= -16,747
Turnout 2008 (of the number of RV):
D=78,2%
R=80,07%
I=61,26%
-Assume the early vote gap is 70,000 at the end in favor of the Democrats
-Assume crossover is 0 (more likely that crossover will favor Romney, but ok)
-Assume Indies break even for Romney/Obama
-Assume turnouts are going to be same (more likely turnout will be better for republicans in 2012, but ok)
Then the difference in (active) RV compared to 2008 should be enough to cling Iowa:
Reps +45,184 and Dems -34,658 = 79,842 Net gain. 9,842 votes up after closing the EV-gap.
So I’d say, things look good in Iowa, or am I missing something?
I think they do too. I also think the Des Moines Register was a big help. Newspapers mean less and less, but it seems that paper helps a lot in Iowa. Endorsing a Republican for the first time in 40 years probably made a lot of Iowans’ eyes pop open.
Perfect example of why we all love this site. Data driven analysis by Keith and the commenters.
Very well done, Jan.
Excellent, Jan. Many thanks.
Oregon is a weird state, as it is 100% mail in voting.
Not sure how late you can mail in a ballot, but I wonder how many people still have theirs.
Drop offs. In Portland, any PO Box. Usually about 50% comes in last three days. About 25% is already in.
I have filled out my ballot, but have not turned it in. My wife hasn’t even filled hers out yet. But we will definitely turn ours in by Friday. You can mail it in or turn it in to a drop site. You have until 8pm on election day to turn your ballot in to a drop site. Oregon has been exclusively vote by mail since 1996. I am 28 years old and the only time I have ever voted at a polling place was when I lived in Oklahoma in 2010.
Washington is also vote by mail, though they only require a postmark by election day. So the tallying can go on for three days beyond the election.
Yup. Which makes for extra fun here during close statewide contests….we don’t know for weeks on close races. However, if WA is close for RR, no one but hard core politicos will care about the final result as RR will be well over 300 EVs.
When do they start counting ballots — on election day?
Romney should break out into Oregon and New Mexico with ads today.
Are you saying that he should, or he is actually planning to?
O is coming back to Vegas, isn’t he? They must not be seeing the turnout numbers they need in Clark County. That says it all.
Oregon is not as liberal as Washington, however the statewide Republican party here is incredibly weak. Also it is a very rural state dominated by the Portland Metro area that is very liberal. The 2nd biggest city Eugene is also quite liberal as well. In 2008 when Obama won by 16% I believe he only won 9 of Oregon’s 36 counties. If Romney can get 35% in Multnomah county, 40% in Lane county, and 45-50% in Washington and Clackamas counties then he has a chance.
Do you think the Salem paper endorsing Romney plays at all? Heard its a liberal paper.
I think it is significant. People I talked to today were in shock that they endorsed Romney. I don’t know if it changes minds, but it is significant in that it shows that this year has nothing in common with 08′. I think it is representative as to how much of a disappointment the past four years have been. People around here really thought Obama was a savior in 08′ even those who are voting for him now are doing so just because they feel they have no other choice.
Andrew..I’d tweak that analysis just slightly. RR would actually need to win Clackamas Co. to be competitive and then be close in Washington Co (say 46% or better) and run up nice margins in Josephine, Linn, Jackson and Deschutes Cos that shade red in an average election but would need to be deeper red to overcome Multnomah.
In Washington, I live in a bell weather county, Clark Co. (believe it or not) and for RR to win here, you would need to see RR crack 35% in King Co, 43-48 in Pierce and Thurston and then win battlegrounds like Snohomish and Clark. He would also need to very well in Spokane, say win by 10-15 pts and really run up healthy totals in the eastern part of the state.
Yeah, you are probably right. Romney will dominate Linn county though. I believe McCain was in the high 50s there in 08′, He would probably need 60-65% in Jackson and Deshutes counties. I think Romney will do okay in the suburbs of Washington Co. and Clackamas Co. Romney will probably do very will in Marion Co. as well.
Its just the margins in Multnomah and Lane Co’s are probably going to be to big once again.
OK, so let me ask this question …
I get that the national turnout is not going to be D+8, nor will it be so in many states.
So where are these pollsters getting their respondents?
Are they purposefully not calling republicans, or ignoring republicans?
How do they get a poll that is D+7 or whatever – are we saying they’re making it up?
^^^ Many pollsters say they won’t weight by party, but will weight by race. So if they weight their sample to 72% white turnout, that will create an outsized Democrat edge as whites are removed and minorities are added to the sample. In 2008, white turnout was 76.2 %. Gallup is assuming it will be 78. Axelrod says it will be 72, like the Dem friendly polls.
OK …
I have to say, 78% seems about as optimistic for the Reps as 72 sounds optimistic for the Dems.
In reading Keith’s Axelrod piece, it seems the decline in white voting was twice as big as expected in 2008.
Seems if we regress to the norm, we should wind up at about the same as 2008, which if you believe the census bureau, is about 76%, if you believe CNN exit polls, it’s 74%.
Pew is assuming 76%, I believe.
Clark County numbers: Dem 13083, Rep 8924, Other 6017.
Instant analysys; a very lousy day. Lowest Rep turnout this year (except Sunday; this was only 702 ballots more). We will need the next two days to be great. Will post more later.
so down like 4 k today in clark wsn’t today there last big day thursday and friday move around the county on there moblie voting
so we are down 53k in clark with 2 more days of voting
How many people are going to vote in Nevada – 28,000 votes doesn’t seem like all that many.
so if we were like down 35k for the state add those 4k without any other district that have reported guess not bad.
Back of the envelope math… GOP is down by 40,000 votes statewide. Source:
http://nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2501
http://nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2503
Scandal link regarding Senator Bob Menendez now up on Dailycaller.
Guy isn’t married.
YYYaaawwwnnn …
Yeah, you’re right. We’re all cool with U.S. Senators paying women in second world countries for sex. Nothing wrong with that. NOT! I am sure this will go over real well with women voters.
Yup.
Uhmm.. so does this fall into “shipping jobs overseas”??
I think there are rumors of tax-payer dollars being involved.. that might be the only issue if any
I wouldn’t expect too many female Hurricane Sandy survivors to be hugging Bob Menendez tomorrow. And keep your young girls away from him too.
“Yeah, you’re right. We’re all cool with U.S. Senators paying women in second world countries for sex. Nothing wrong with that. NOT! I am sure this will go over real well with women voters.”
First of all – even most women are going to need more proof than some gal from a foreign country saying it happened.
Second, Bill Clinton had sex (or *something*) in the oval freaking office.
When he was married.
And women still love him.
Bill Clinton was a special case — for many reasons, most of them partisan. His reputation was badly damaged for years, and he was really only rehabilitated fully during the past four years. We’ll have to see what happens with this story during the next few days. There may be other people coming forward. Put it this way, how badly would this scandal hurt Scott Brown or Connie Mack, even if they weren’t married. It would doom them.
Sorry, this is a total nothing of a story. It will embarrass him, but have zero impact on his election.
Now also on drudgereport.
How many times must we learn this lesson? Always pay your prostitute what you promised.
Whats up with all these politicians going to prostitutes?
Can you imagine how off-track one must be to actually go through with a pay-for-sex transaction? Thinking about it is one thing, but actually doing it is another — when one considers the risk to marriage and reputation, not to mention that the experience is probably so much less than you visualized.
Reblogged this on Michael Gregg and commented:
Wow, there are some very encouraging numbers! Keep it up Nevada!
Here’s what Ralston has to say. He’s a Democrat. Basically, Obama is on track for a 3 point win, but this is still doable for Romney. http://www.ralstonflash.com/blog/not-2008#.UJITsJG9KSM
Ralson’s big takeaway is the indies are going to break around even, so Romney has to do a lot better than his campaign is sayng in order to win.
The quote: “no poll I trust shows Romney crushing Obama with independents. Indeed, pollsters on both sides of the aisle who understand Nevada have found unaffiliated voters breaking within the margin of error for the candidates. One of the post-mortems I expect to write about this election is the continuing trend of Nevada independents becoming less conservative. Without a smashing independent win here, Romney cannot take Nevada because of that large Democratic registration advantage.”
He says the Dems have 90,000 more new registered voters this year than in 2008.
This Bengahzi thing stinks to high heaven.
It’s travesty our media has gone so completely the tank for the Obama administration.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/10/31/herridge_on_cable_month_before_benghazi_attack_smoking_gun_warning_here.html
In a different media environment, the Benghazi debacle could have been a game-changer for this election. So far, it has been more like a festering sore for the Obama campaign. They are just trying to keep a lid on it (with MSM support) until after November 6th. However, the narrative of this administration’s incompetence is slowly piercing through the mainstream media blackout as evidenced by a recent FOX NEWS poll.
If Obama manages to eke out victory next week, this issue will dog him throughout his second term and likely cripple his agenda. If Romney wins, Benghazi will be investigated but in the end will be another epitaph on Obama’s political tombstone.
Didn’t read every comment here … but has anyone noticed/commented on two trends from the graphs above?
1) Dems doing better on weekends and GOP doing better on weekdays (I’m sure someone’s noticed that … but my second point might be cause for more hope …)
2) Independent voters tracking along with GOP (inverse of Dems). During the first 7 days of polling, the two highest days for Dems were also the two lowest days for both GOP and Indy voters. During the 5 remaining days, the same pattern … the weekend days of 10/27&28 were both the highest Dem of those 5 days while the GOP and Indy’s had their lowest days of those 5 days.
I think point #2 may lead one to correctly assume that, since Indy patterns are tracking along with GOP voter patterns that they are voting for Romney more than Obama
… at least in Washoue Co.
I know this a Nevada thread but lastest available so will post this here. It hasn’t been discussed much but Colorado is looking extremely good with early voting. Through yesterday, here are the tallies:
Dem: 404,870 Rep: 439,269 Ind: 295,122
Raw Data at http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/31/file_attachments/172441/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B31%2B2012.pdf
If a 60-40 break in favor of Romney is applied to Independents he should be up approximately 616,000 to 523,000. Was this expected?