In the latest poll of Virginia from Roanoke College, Mitt Romney leads by 5-points, 49 to 44 with 5% Undecided. Among the Undecided, 27% are leaning towards Romney and 9% towards Obama. The party ID is D +4 (Dem 35, Rep 31, Ind 30). This compares to 2008 of D +6 (Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 27) and 2004 of R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26). Maybe a shade towards the Democrats but at least it is between the past two elections.
Interesting how Roanoke has a similar lead among Independents as Quinnipiac, but a 7-point swing towards Romney. Did they not get the memo to cheerlead their lungs out for Obama? Oh wait, Roanoke isn’t party to the DC cocktail circuit so they will have to rely on their reputation which makes the play it straight and this is an awful poll for the President.
From the at the cross-tabs:
- Each side locks down its base with ~95% support
- Romney leads with Independents by +26 which explains the lead in the poll
- Obama support among Whites is an awful 33%
- Obama support among Blacks is 89%, approximately the historical norm for a Democrat but well-off his lofty 2008 levels of ~96%
- Obama leads by only 1-point among women 48 to 47
- Romney leads among men 52 to 39
- Obama job approval is at 44%
- Third party candidates get 4% of the vote but when pressed to pick Obama or Romney, Obama leads 56 to 37 among these voters
- Obama is viewed favorably 48 to 46
- Romney is viewed favorably 49 to 39