For the second straight day during the most important time of early voting, Republicans notch another victory expanding on yesterday’s win. In Tuesday early voting Republicans cast 3700 ballots versus Democrats 3360, a 340 ballot margin. Aggregate ballots cast were 120% the 2012 weekday reflecting the expected week 2 turnout, unlike Monday.
Other than the odd spike on Sunday (the lowest turnout day of 2012), the contest has been largely evenly matched after the typical strong start by the Democrats. Early voting has been a back and forth battle in Washoe County but during the most important time period Republicans have greatly stepped up their game. The Independent/Other turnout remains an important segment in the 2012 early voting and remains the great unknown whether they will fall to Romney or Obama. The strong reversal in Republican fortunes the last two days show has increased the growth rate of Republican turnout versus Democrat turnout to 3.2% versus the models 2% heading into this week.We are working without our models for now (I’d ask for a Hurricane Sandy exemption) but between the turnout below expectations thus far and the increased growth rate, Republicans are poised to meaningfully turn the tides on Democrats in Washoe early voting this year. The gains of the last two days continue to eat into the Democrats ballot advantage that stands as 1117 ballots.