Another recommended read: The Folly of David Axelrod’s Turnout Model bit.ly/S84K0u
— Karl Rove (@KarlRove) October 29, 2012
I’m beside myself.
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60 Comments
WHOA!
~ Brittany
Very nice. I just hope that Rove’s link to this site doesn’t result in this place being overrun with trolls, like every other political discussion board.
It probably will be. Keith, I’m afraid you will have to watch the comments very closely because the trolling will explode after this. Sigh.
~ Brittany
The trolls will not be here on Nov 6th or 7th, when Romney is decleared the president elect!
You shouldn’t be surprised, you did an excellent analysis.
congrats!!
You have officially arrived.
Can an invite to appear on TV be far behind?
ha! I have a face that’s made for radio. Speaking of which I’m doing a radio interview tonight in Minnesota. I’ll put the details on the site later.
Congrats. I hope this blog is a start to something bigger and brighter for you. For all your hard work, you deserve it!
Fox News would be smart to call Keith in to a panel discussing the polls being all over the place. Congrats Keith!
~ Brittany
Agreed.
agree
It’s on RCP’s afternoon update as well. Congrats!
Thank you! You were the first to alert me … It’s a good day today. Hurricane and all
Congats Keith! We love this blog and appreciate your insightful analysis. Keep up the good work!
Congratulations! A Karl Rove mention is great stuff!
Good Stuff!
All of those late nights have paid off Keith! Way to go! Amazing what working to get to the truth will get you.
Congratulations, Keith! I have always thought that Rove and his staff are very good at finding the smart bloggers. You are doing yeoman’s work and deserve many more such nods.
congrats
Well done. I’ve been glued to your site since I found it. Your work is top-notch. Glad to see you are now being recognized.
+1
Keeps getting better Keith, you made RCP’s afternoon update.
Romney +18.8% in early absentee ballot returns in PA. In 2008 McCain was +1.9%. Obama won PA by 10 pts in 2008.
Source:
http://www.gop.com/news/gop-blog/gop-rout-in-pennsylvania-absentee-ballot-returns/
It’s hard to tell what this means without knowing what percentage of the total vote absentee ballots constituted in 2008. Romney could be getting a larger piece of what in reality is a small pie, or a larger piece of a large pie. We don’t know from the data in that press release.
Good point. There were nearly 300,000 reported absentee ballots cast according to the link in 2008 out of over 5.8 million votes total. That is just over 5% of the total. The 2012 figure is 115,000 to date. While a small sample size, it is significant improvement.
Definitely an improvement. But obviously, since PA doesn’t have early voting, absentee ballots only make up a small chunk of the total vote. I’m sure PA Dems are breathing many sighs of relief that Sandy’s coming now and not next Monday. Because in that case, voting in Philly would be completely FUBAR. Enough so that it could actually throw the state to Romney. Talk about a can of worms! It’s a good thing for the Republic that Sandy came this week, not next.
Whooo-Hooo! Well deserved…
You do a GREAT job!
Appreciate all your work, Keith (and this site). Checking it multiple times daily. Enjoy all the opinions/analysis.
Congrats to Keith, he deserves all of the recognition he receives. Also, to Tim Eriksen providing the good PA absentee vote numbers, thank you!
First Rove, then RCP feature link, great job Keith. I discovered this blog by accident, and I can tell you that this is one of the most informative sites around, even if we’re all (except for the trolls) conservatives rooting for Romney here.
WoW! Congrats Keith… that’s BIG TIME.
Well earned, well deserved.
Remember us (the little people) as you move on to greater glory and fame.
Great job! Just remember to keep space for comments as you move up.
Congrats Keith, well done. Your site is an up-and-comer.
this is a good blog; keep this up and you’ll be equal to Nate Silver, just give it a couple of years. good luck!
You’ve earned all kudos you get, Keith. This has become my go-to-1st blog whenever I want updates on the election.
have to hope if we are doing so well in PA and in Indiana, that Ohio has to come onboard at some point..
Look at the pew closer 76 – 62 in republican voter enthusiasm. More likely to vote. Obama knew he lost this election on Oct. 10 This is why he is making a Jackass out of himself with bayonets, binders, bromide, and wooden ships.
With these numbers Obama definitely lost
Any one see these interesting number in the PEW reports
It’s republican +4 which means that romney will get 331 electoral votes.
congrats to keith, can anyone explain however the dramatic uptick in Obamas approval rating (51%) in the gallup today?
Contests Keith! This site helps me sleep like a baby! Before I stumbled across this site by pure luck I wasn’t getting more than three hours a night
Congrats!
Well deserved attention. This site is a godsend. Rational analysis is lacking elsewhere.
congrats!, yasher koach (it means – “way to go, more power to you”
in ’08, I read RCP,
in ’10, it was powerlineblog;
in ’12 — it’s battleground watch!
Excellent work,Keith!
Congratulations Keith, and well deserved for an excellent article, how long before you appear on Fox News!
Probably about 5 seconds after they ask
Kudos to you Keith ! Following your blog from the great (red) state of Texas !
Congratulations on the recommendation by Karl Rove.
Well-deserved recognition.
Congrats! (Not contests – damnable auto correct)
I came across this site completely by chance a few weeks ago. I have been hooked ever since. I see now that you have obtained national recognition. This just confirms what I already have known for 2 weeks: (1) this is an awesome site, and (2) ROMNEY WILL DEFINITELY WIN!!!!!!
Gratz!!!! Truely one of the better blogs this cycle
Congrats Keith, you are make it big…………What about some ADS now like DRUDGE?
Mazel Tov Keith on getting the recognition you deserve! I found this site when I was fact checking something the Obama people said, I can’t even remember what the issue was because I have been reading everything on here ever since. I also sleep better at night thinking your numbers and analysis make sense. Keep up the hard work.
The only thing about this blog that really PISSES ME OFF is that I only found out about it a couple weeks ago. Your analysis is amazing Keith, I’ve always been a political junkie, became a numbers junkie this cycle and I’ve noticed the ridiculous poll demos and odd incongruous data (romney losing states he’s dominating among independents), your articles have really helped make sense of it all and let me make some of my own predictions. Thanks Man.