Comments on: Pennsylvania Catholics Micro-Targeted

By: AC

AC — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 18:52:38 +0000

I believe that someone from the Catholic Association appeared last night on Bill Cunningham’s program (= the successor to Matt Drudge’s radio program). Very good segment. Bill Cunningham is a faithful Catholic and castigated Obama’s policies.

By: AC

AC — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 18:48:25 +0000

As we all know, church-goers are more likely to vote Republican. The Catholics who vote for Obama are largely those who seldom or very irregularly attend services.

By: Evan3457

Evan3457 — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 17:49:39 +0000

Instead of giving it a weight like 1 for a neutral poll, or 1.3 for a Marist or PPP poll, Silver will weight the new Rasmussen Ohio poll at negative eleventy billion; this will allow him to claim Obama’s chances of winning Ohio as going up, not down.

By: MattWestfall

MattWestfall — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 14:35:37 +0000

Lately? Silver could not be more in the tank if we wrote for the NYT. Wait….

By: Neil in NC

Neil in NC — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 14:33:00 +0000

WOW! I can’t wait to see how 538 and RCP handle this news. Especially Silver since he’s been exposing himself as a PBO shill lately. Krugman and Matthews will probably go ballistic as well. This is great news!

By: Neil in NC

Neil in NC — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 14:22:32 +0000

I was making calls at a GOPHQ and four of the eight in that little room were Catholic. There were folks from both more “orthodox” and more “liberal” parishes. Fifty percent of that little room and that’s in North Carolina.

By: Vadim

Vadim — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 14:18:26 +0000

I see the Ohio poll now;

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president

By: Pennsylvania Catholics Micro-Targeted | AudacityOfHypocrisy.com

Pennsylvania Catholics Micro-Targeted | AudacityOfHypocrisy.com — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 14:18:17 +0000

[...] BattlegroundWatch [...]

By: Dan

Dan — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 14:15:48 +0000

Plus today’s Ras tracking poll would have the three worst days for Republicans (i.e. fri, sat, sun). Let’s see where it is on Wednesday.

By: Chris

Chris — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 14:12:28 +0000

I wouldn’t worry about it unless Gallup sees the same thing, and both tighten further over the course of the week. One x factor in all of this is Hurricane Sandy….that’s going to take coverage away from the campaigns, and it’s possible Obama might benefit a little simply by being in charge (however nominal that leadership actually is).

By: John

John — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 14:07:15 +0000

This excerpt from today’s Rasmussen daily presidential tracking report caught my eye…

“Fifty-four percent (54%) of voters still favor repeal of the president’s health care law. That matches the support for repeal found the week after the law was passed in March 2010. It is truly remarkable how stable public opinion has remained on this issue. Eighty percent (80%) of voters believe repeal of the health care law is likely if Romney is elected and Republicans take control of Congress.”

Could/Should be a significant contributor to RR victory. He has done a better job touting Obamacare repeal recently but should have hit it harder earlier in my humble opinion.

By: Vadim

Vadim — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 14:01:50 +0000

I heard that too even in prior elections but I would assume that Rasmussen is smart enough to account for that. He does weigh by party id.

By: northstar

northstar — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 13:56:18 +0000

That is true. I read somewhere that for whatever reasons self identified or rebublican leaning voters are undersampeld on weekends.

By: Jeff R.

Jeff R. — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 13:46:03 +0000

Republicans usually go down on weekends because they have more to do than answer polls. I’ve often noticed a downward trend on the weekend tracking, and Rasmussen’s three day rotation will magnify this versus Gallup’s seven day.

By: kindredsoul

kindredsoul — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 13:45:26 +0000

I’m not seeing the Rasmussen Ohio results either. The linked article is about Romney’s national lead.

By: Vadim

Vadim — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 13:42:03 +0000

The examiner links to the national poll, not Ohio. What worries me is that Rasmussen has been showing a shrinking lead for Mitt. On Saturday it was 50:46, on Sunday 50:47, and this morning 49:47. Not a good trend. Let’s see what the Gallup says.

By: MattWestfall

MattWestfall — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 13:39:24 +0000

Sorry. Please disregard. Picked up wrong story/link.

By: William Jefferson Jr.

William Jefferson Jr. — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 13:38:17 +0000

National and state polls will begin to converge over the course of the week. This idea that you can be at 46% nationally but 50%+ in purple states is ridiculous.

By: MattWestfall

MattWestfall — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 13:38:16 +0000

http://www.examiner.com/article/rasmussen-polls-romney-leads-president-obama-50-to-47-percent

By: Jeff R.

Jeff R. — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 13:33:34 +0000

I think that it’ll be this week where we see Romney begin to open up in some of the battlegrounds like Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and Iowa.