You can’t have everything and I guess this poll result is better than the laughable Quinnipiac poll last month showing President Obama with a 10 point lead with the same party breakdown. At least Quinnipiac is consistent in their auditioning for a job in Obama’s second term. They threw me off last week when they put out some fairly sampled polls, but here we are right back to last month’s monstrosity of an Ohio poll over-sampling Democrats by 9%, higher than the 8% margin they enjoyed in 2008. Party ID is D +9 (Dem 35, Rep 26, Ind 34). This compares to D +8 in 2008 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30) and R +5 in 2004 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25). As I wrote last month, “This is for a state that less than 12-months ago went to the polls in a very pro-Union turnout and also voted to REPEAL Obamacare by a margin of 66 to 34.” Considering we have the same party ID as last month, this poll is really really bad for the President. He’s down 7 with Independents, he’s down 7 among men, and his month-over-month comparisons (below) are horrible. Democrats won’t enjoy near the advantage they had in 2008 and this poll claims Ohio is even more Democrat this time around which simply isn’t true.
The early vote issue
Obama leads among early voters 54 to 39 and 20% of those surveyed said they were early voters. The rise of early voting seems to be skewing results in favor of Democrats which was deftly explained by Adrian Gray previously. If Democrats have a propensity to vote early and early voters are polled, more Democrats will get through the likely voter screen and shade results towards Democrats. This is a problem polling forms are going to have to work towards re-calibrating polls reflecting this unintended Democrat over-sampling. It is not a bias in the polling it is just a flaw in polling methods today failing to appropriately take into account this new phenomenon.
Highlights compared to last month:
- Independents support Romney by 7-points, up from a 1-point lead last month
- Both sides lock down their base (93%) with nominal/insignificant crossover (5% Romney, 6% Obama)
- Republicans are decidedly more enthusiastic about voting 52 to 40 — similar to the 10-point gap last month
- Men support Romney by 7-points, 51 to 44 — similar to the 8-point gap last month
- Women support Obama by 15-points, 55 to 40 — down from a 25-point gap
- Youth vote supports Obama by 25-points, 59 to 34 — down from 35-points
- Seniors support Romney by 7-points, 51 to 44 — reversing an Obama 1-point lead
- Obama Job Approval good at 50/47
- The candidates split on who would do better on the economy 48 a piece