There are so many awful things about the poll make-up, it essentially verifies that Florida is quickly becoming out of reach for Obama.
The #s
- The poll shows Obama leading 47 to 46 with 5% Undecided — still under 50%
- 5% are undecided which if 2/3 break for the challenger is really 48.7 Obama versus 49.3 Romney but it gets MUCH worse for Obama below
Demographics
- The poll’s racial make-up is incredible: 55% White, 23% Hispanics/Cuban, 14% Black, 8% Asian
- In 2008 the racial make-up at the ballot box in Florida was: 71% White, 14% Hispanic, 13% Black, 1% Asian
- Far too few Whites who break for Romney 51 – 42, far too many Hispanics which break for Obama 52 to 44, and too many Asians who break for Romney 46 to 39. And Blacks only support Obama 84 to 14, well below 2008
Party ID
- The party ID is D +9 ( Dem 43, Rep 34, Ind 23)
- In 2008 it was D +3 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29)
- In 2004 it was R+4 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23)
- Independents down 6 and Democrats up 6 from 2008. All those Independents rushing into the arms of the Democrats, right? Just like we are seeing NO WHERE in the county
Conclusion
- Obama still isn’t close to 50% with 17 days left. Horrible for an incumbent
- The survey has a demographic make-up with 0% chance of showing up on election day
- The turnout models a Democrat advantage of 9 percentage points, 3x greater than the 2008 turnout. Unrealistic by any measure
- Despite each of these overwhelming and fantastical Democrat skewing, with Undecideds factored in Obama is still losing 48.7 to 49.3
- This poll with Obama leading may be the worst Florida news I’ve seen for Obama this cycle … Time to move on to Pennsylvania (and Minnesota?)
13 Comments
All of us have seen some really ridiculous polls this cycle but this one might take the cake. I can’t remember one that used a turnout of 3x O’s favor from 4 years ago. But, they will be the ones that will look like fools in time. Florida is done. Glad to have those 29 EV’s in our stable.
I am beginning to think that Romney may take the national Asian vote. I was in Korean/China town in Northern Virginia and was really shocked at all the Romney signs in the storefronts.
Well, there’s a Zogby/Newsmax poll out there some where showing Obama up by 6% in Florida this week. Isn’t that the most bizzare partnership you’ve ever seen? Who would have imagined that Newsmax would be sponsoring all these wild pro-Obama internet based polls, haha.
I have a felling you won’t see Zogby’s contract renewed with Newsmax after this election.
One note about the SurveyUSA poll. When reweighted it does fall in line with other polling. Sometimes people ask how can two polls on the same day give such different results. the 10/20 FL polls are a good example of this. You have three polls which have the following regarding party ID: D/R% even, D+1% and D+9%. That’s right, one polling firm weights dems and repubs even in turnout and another sees dems +9% in turnout. This is why a RCP average ends up just being a bad average. Re-weighting the polls as we do puts them all on common ground for scenario analysis. The SurveyUSA poll ends up being a very favorable poll for Romney once the bias is removed. You can see how it moves the poll back in line with the Fox News poll when re-weighted. So two polls with very different headlines of who is winning actually confirm the same thing once re-weighted.
http://insidepolling.com/battleground_states/florida
Definitely high on the scale of crappy polls. Unfortunately for my guy, Florida is a dead end for Obama. Plain and simple. I’m sure he knows it no matter what the crap polls say. Really, the whole South is going to be solid red, regardless of an Obama victory or loss nationally.
Still playimg the propaganda game this late in the game. I thought by now these pro Obama pollsters would start using realistic samples
Some of these polling outfits are simply an embarrassment to the business. In all the years I’ve been following presidential polling with great interest, which happens to be since 1980, this is the worst year by far for obviously biased polling on a wide scale.
Clear sign of desperation. They want to give despirited Dems any sign of hope even if its false hope.
They’re taking one for the team, I suppose. Professional suicide for the worst of them, if there’s any justice.
I don’t really understand RCP’s filtering of the polls. There seems to be no logic to it that I can tell. Even they know it is off when Beven is talking about median and means and how he doesn’t believe its correct…
TPM puts them all in, regardless. TPM averages show terrible results for Obama. Anything under 48% at this point is bad for an incumbent:
North Carolina 46.5
Florida 46.7
Ohio 46.8
New Hampshire 46.8
Colorado 47.5
Virginia 47.8
—————————————— Romney 279 – 359 Obama
Pennsylvania 48.4
Iowa 49
Nevada 49.5
Michigan 48.9
Minnesota 50
Wisconsin 50.6
If I were to call the election today, this is what I would predict.
Thats 259 for Obama.
well, all poll predictions are history now. Word a poll question appropriately and i think you can have a poll that can almost
accurately predict.
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[...] this morning the comical SurveyUSA poll of Florida found a 16 percentage point drop in actual White votes (a Romney demo) yet Obama was only up 1%. [...]
[...] dream scenario where White people en masses don’t vote. This is almost as bad at that SurveyUSA poll. Here the poll’s racial make-up is incredible: 63% White, 20% Hispanics/Cuban, 13% Black, 1% [...]