The latest from Suffolk University, who controversially announced they will stop polling North Carolina, Florida and Virginia because they believe those states are locked in for Romney, has the race neck-and-neck in Nevada. President Obama leads by +2, 47 to 45 with 6% Undecided
President Barack Obama leads Republican Mitt Romney by 2 points in Nevada (47 percent to 45 percent, with 6 percent undecided), according to a Suffolk University/KSNV poll of likely voters in that swing state. The poll is well within the survey’s 4.4 percent margin of error. “After a strong debate performance, Mitt Romney is within striking distance of President Obama in Nevada,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “However, Obama’s big lead in Clark County – the state’s largest – has enabled his campaign to run up the score. In Washoe County, the results closely align with the statewide numbers.” Obama led 50-42 in Clark County and 47-43 in Washoe County. However, in the remaining Nevada counties, Romney led 63 percent to 30 percent. The Suffolk University/KSNV-Nevada poll includes all four presidential candidates who qualified for the Nevada ballot. Independent Virgil Goode and Libertarian Gary Johnson polled 1 percent each.
Interestingly they gave you the two big County votes for Clark County and Washoe County. We’ll go to the Nevada expert Jon Ralston for the takeaways:
The internals here show Obama only leading in Clark County by 8 points, which seems unlikley — he needs to win by double digits. He is still ahead because the survey shows he is ahead in Washoe by 4. If he wins Washoe by 4, he will almost certainly win the state.
This is a registered voter poll with party ID D +8 (Dem 41, Rep 33, Ind 23). Not enough Independents in the survey. In 2008 it was D +8 (Dem 38 Rep 30, Ind 32) and in 2004 it was R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26). I’m going to stop blogging registered voter polls. It’s a waste for any organization to do those at this juncture.
Quick addendum on Suffolk University polls:
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 11, 2012