Battleground Watch

The latest from Gravis Marketing in Michigan shows a tightly contested race with the President clinging to a slim +1.6% lead over Mitt Romney 46 to 44.4. The party ID was D +5 (Dem 36.5, Rep 31.2, Ind 32.3).  That’s a low Democrat advantage considering 2008 was D +12 (Dem 41, Rep 29, Ind 29) and 2004 was D +5 (Dem 39, Rep 34, Ind 27). Romney is going to need a turnout similar to this comparatively strong GOP turnout of he is going to flip this traditionally strong blue state:

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a survey of 1,122 likely voters in Michigan regarding their vote for a given Presidential candidate. Overall, Obama holds a 46.0% to 44.4% lead among likely voters and a 47.3% to 42.3% among registered voters. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2%. Obama’s lead in Michigan is according to race and religious affiliation is shown in the top two graphs. Romney holds a 3.7% lead among Whites, while Obama has a 43.6% advantage among African American voters. When it comes to religious affiliation, Romney has the lead among Catholics and Other Christians, while Obama has the lead among Muslim, Jews, and not affiliated voters.