After the debacle of the NBC/WSJ/Marist disasters I’m not sure I can tolerate another spate of worthless drivel being passed off as credible polls. Thankfully the Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS alliance who I crushed in print two weeks ago rally to the cause this week with what look to be decent samplings, especially when compared to that other disaster. One caveat:
The Q/NYT polls were taken 10/4-9. All post-debate (barely), but a 6-day window in October is less than ideal.
— Just Karl (@justkarl) October 11, 2012
Romney leads by 1-point 48 to 47, a reversal of the exact number 3 weeks ago. 2% want someone else and 2% are Undecided. Romney leads by 4 with Independents 49 to 45 but Obama garners 8% of the Republican vote while Romney garners 5% of the Democrat vote. Importantly in a state with a noteworthy 3rd party candidate (Gary Johnson), Romney only locks down 89% of Republicans while Obama locks down 95% of Democrats. Obama is losing Whites by 12% 41 to 53. Obama won this demographic 50 to 48 last time. A 14-point swing dooms his campaign and there are no two ways about that. Party ID shades slightly towards the 2008 turnout but the state overall has been trending Democrat for over a decade so it’s more plausible than most other states with turnout samples similar to 2008.
Party ID was R +2 (Dem 27, Rep 29, Ind 39)
2008 was R +1 (Dem 30, Rep 31, Ind 39)
2004 R +9 (Dem 29, Rep 38, Ind 33)
Obama leads by 5-points, 51 to 46 expanding his lead 1-point versus 3 weeks ago. 1% want someone else and 3% are Undecided. Obama leads by 2 with Independents and gets more cross-over votes (5% of Reps) than Romney (1% of Dems). This looks like a solid result for Obama where he must ensure his coalition shows up else the state slips through to Romney. Expect Virginia to be the tightest finish of any major state. Party ID made shades slightly to the Democrats but it defensible.
Party ID is D +3 (Dem 31, Rep 28, Ind 35)
2008 was D +6 (Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 27)
2004 was R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26)
Obama leads by 3-points 50 to 47, down from a 6-point lead 3 weeks ago. 3% remain Undecided. Romney leads by 2 with Independents 48 to 46, each side has locked up its base and get the same 3% of cross-over votes. Again party ID shade slightly for the Democrats but it’s not outrageous.
Party ID is D +4 (Dem 31, Rep 27, Ind 37)
2008 was D +6 (Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 29)
2004 was R +3 (Dem 35, Rep 38, Ind 27)