It’s only one national poll and the election is still a month away but the respondents are all post-debate and Romney clearly did a great job “making the sale.” Pew Research just released a poll of 1,112 likely voters (so good sample size) showing Mitt Romney leading 49 to 45. The entire poll is good for Romney with one exception, the party ID is a BIG Republican turnout of R +2.75 (Dem 32.5, Rep 35.25, Ind 29.5). This would be a record turnout for Republicans beating the 2004 turnout of dead even between the two parties. Oddly enough though, the party ID almost exactly mirrors Rasmussen’s party ID expectation and he has nailed the last two general elections (more on that here) so there is a basis for this turnout although I’d model D +2. Drill down on the linked poll because there is plenty to look at (especially Obama’s support among White voters) in this comprehensive survey:
Mitt Romney no longer trails Barack Obama in the Pew Research Center’s presidential election polling. By about three-to-one, voters say Romney did a better job than Obama in the Oct. 3 debate, and the Republican is now better regarded on most personal dimensions and on most issues than he was in September. Romney is seen as the candidate who has new ideas and is viewed as better able than Obama to improve the jobs situation and reduce the budget deficit. In turn, Romney has drawn even with Obama in the presidential race among registered voters (46% to 46%) after trailing by nine points (42% to 51%) in September. Among likely voters, Romney holds a slight 49% to 45% edge over Obama. He trailed by eight points among likely voters last month.