Pennsylvania remains within striking distance. Romney had a raucous rally in the state after scooping up some cash. This will be a fun state to taunt the media with if it flips on election day.The President maintains a nice lead for a Battleground State at 7-points but there are a few extra factors at play making things more interesting than they seemed just a few short weeks ago. This is one of the few states where the down ballot candidate might actually provide a rising tide for the top of the ticket. GOP Senate challenger Tom Smith is showing a sneaky competitiveness against famous son Bob Casey Jr. This race was supposed to be a walk for Casey but Smith is proving to be far more formidable than the conventional wisdom assumed. He trails by 8 in this survey, but that’s down from 18-points 45 days ago and other surveys confirm his surging acceptance by the Keystone public. This type of momentum was expected from a candidate like a Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin who is proving to be less than helpful to the Romney campaign, but Tom Smith is a race to watch.
Party ID doesn’t factor in as they surveyed by party registration and although a D +9 split might look high, it is an accurate reflection in Pennsylvania party registrations.
Number of Interviews: 427 Likely Voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania
Margin of Error: +/-5% at a 95% level of confidence
Fielding Dates – September 22 – 26, 2012