Gallup has another survey out today in conjunction with USA Today. While there are plenty of interesting take-aways from the survey questions, what struck me most was the enthusiasm gap and who is up versus who is down this year.
The poll of 1,446 adults, taken Monday through Thursday, has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
Republicans have opened a big enthusiasm gap: 64% say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, compared to 48% of Democrats. In general, though, the results show an electorate that is less excited and less engaged than in recent presidential elections.
Democrats are less enthusiastic about voting than in 2008, although Republicans are a bit more enthusiastic. Fewer Democrats and Republicans say they have given a lot of thought to the election than they did in the falls of 2008 and 2004.
Polls of “adults” over-sample Democrat support which makes the subsequent take-aways all the more damning. I’m going to repeat them for those who missed it the first time:
Democrats are less enthusiastic about voting than in 2008
Republicans are a bit more enthusiastic.
Paraphrasing Inigo Montoya: You keep using those 2008 turnout models. I do not think they mean what you think they mean.