As the linked write-up says: Reports of Mitt Romney’s demise in Iowa may be greatly exaggerated. I’d bet any amount of money this state is mired in about a 46 – 46 tie and I thought it was pre-mature for NBC to move it to lean Obama. One poll doesn’t make a trend but it does show there is plenty of fight left in the Hawkeye State for Mitt Romney and Republicans.
Party ID update: In my haste I missed this the first time. This poll was R +1 (Dem 35, Rep 36, Ind 30). This compares to 2008 that was D +1 (Dem 34, Rep 33, Ind 33) and 2004 that was R +2 (Dem 34, Rep 36, Ind 30). So the party ID almost splits the baby with the slightest shade towards the GOP. Since only 3 points separate the 2 party IDs you can’t get it exactly in between. Still the sample is between 2004 and 2008 which is where I think this election will fall so not a bad sample.
The stories of Mitt Romney’s demise in Iowa may be exaggerated. While the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll results have caused NBC to move Iowa from being a toss-up to a lean Democrat state, a new TIR-Voter/Consumer Research poll suggests otherwise. The poll of registered voters conducted between September 23rd and September 25th shows Romney with a one-point lead over President Obama in Iowa. Respondents were asked whom they would vote for if the election for president were held today. Forty-seven percent chose Republican Mitt Romney, while 46 percent said Democrat Barack Obama. Two percent said neither, one percent refused to answer, and only four percent of respondents were undecided…The TIR/VCR poll was comprised of 36 percent registered Republicans, 35 percent registered Democrats, and 30 percent no-party voters.