We’ve gone after this unholy alliance of polling hard over the last few weeks and not without cause. Now I blog their aggressive samplings of Democrats more out of sadness than anger. They spent a lot of money to bolster President Obama and it seems like even these fiascos of polls are coming back to reality with closer races despite the turnout models with 0% chance of occurring on election day.
This week we have New Hampshire, Nevada and North Carolina.
New Hampshire — Obama leads by 7; 51 to 44, one vote other and 4 Undecided
Party ID is even with Dem 25, Rep 25, Ind 47. This compares to 2008 D +2 (Dem 29, Rep 27, Ind 45) and 2004 of R +7 (Dem 25, Rep 32, Ind 44). A shade high on Democrats since the state is probably R +2 or R +3. But a good poll for the President.
Nevada — Obama leads by 2; 49 to 47, one vote other and 3 Undecided
Party ID is D +7 (Dem 38, Rep 31 , Ind 30) versus 2008 of D +8 (Dem 38, Rep 30, Ind 26) and 2004 of R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26). Again with the repeat of the once-in-a-generation turnout from 2008 that almost certainly will not be repeated. But with such an aggressive turnout model Obama only leads by 2? Very bad poll for him. I’ll turn it over from here to a guy who knows a lot more about Nevada politics and polls than me, Jon Ralston:
- Looked at full demos for NBC/WSJ/Marist. Look good. Dems may not like, but could argue it favors them. although the Hispanic sample may be slightly high (20 percent)
- Latinos in NBC/WSJ/Marist are 62-36 in NV for Obama. 2 percent undecided.
North Carolina I will barely mention considering it is such a Battleground Obama refuses to campaign there and they are pulling all their money out of the state. So I’m certain this poll is accurate … not. Obama leads (of course) leads by 2 and the party ID is D +8 in a state I will bet you $1000 will be pro-Republican on election day. Split was R +1 in 2004 and since 2008 the Democrat Party has embarrassed itself statewide the likes of which few parties have imploded. One of the states with a large missing White vote is North Carolina. This state is not a Battleground regardless of what polling the DNC tells these news outlets.