Battleground Watch

There is no question in my mind that Barack Obama has promised to hire Quinnipiac to be his official pollster in his next election.  That’s the only explanation for polls consistently sampling an electorate that only exists in David Axelrod’s fantasy world. It’s nothing new that the Obama campaign aggressively lobbies polling outfits for turnout models they favor but Quinnipiac gets the gold star for going the extra mile in the audition to be Obama’s pollster for his 3rd term.  Today’s polls would have you believe we as a nation are so full of Justin Bieber level love for the Democrat party, we’re about to send 300+ into the House of Representatives not 190. But we should have seen this coming considering the way Quinnipiac indicted itself in the earlier discussion of party ID.

It’s latest swing state poll of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania is the most consistently absurd sampling of any I’ve seen this cycle. With results like these CBS and New York Times must find their joint effort with Quinnipiac to be the most smashing marriage since Kim Kardashian and Kris Humphries.

Florida

Party ID is D +9, (Dem 36, Rep 27, Ind 33).  This compares to D +3 in 2008 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29) and R +4 in 2004 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23). With a sampling like this Obama should have a 15-point lead. But Romney leads by 3 with Independents so Obama’s lead is only 9. Also check out the favorable/unfavorable of the two political parties.  Democrats are above water +6 at 49 Favorable/43 Unfavorable whereas Republicans are deeply under water -12 at 38 Favorable/50 Unfavorable. This must mean its Congressional delegation to the House of Representatives is overwhelmingly Democrat right?  But the Florida House delegation is made up of 19 Republicans and and 6 Democrats. And a Democrat Tsunami isn’t hitting the Florida delegation any time soon.  This electorate used to sample for Quinnipiac poll won’t exist on election day in Florida any time soon despite the hopiest of hopey wishes from Team Obama.

Ohio

Party ID is D +9 (Dem 35, Rep 26, Ind 35). This compares to D +8 in 2008 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30) and R +5 in 2004 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25).  Romney leads with Independents by 1 but is down overall by 10 because Quinnipiac called all the shop stewards at GM plants across Ohio since the Obama re-election team was busy answering the Washington Post’s survey. This is for a state that less than 12-months ago went to the polls in a very pro-Union turnout and also voted to REPEAL Obamacare by a margin of 66 to 34.  Suddenly they’re all rushing into the arms of Obama because his war on coal keeps Ohioans unemployed by banning fracking of the Utica shale?  Ohio may be tough terrain for Romney but this sampling reflects as much reality as Kate Upton coming over to wake me up every the morning … It ain’t happening.

Pennsylvania

Party ID  is Dem +11 (Dem 39, Rep  28, Ind 27). This compares to D +7 in 2008 (Dem 44, Rep 37, Ind 18) and D +2 in 2004 (Dem 41, Rep 39, Ind 20). Well someone needed to challenge that Susquehanna poll showing a two point race in Pennsylvania because after the vigorous defense of their polling methodology someone may get the notion that Barack Obama isn’t most popular of popular Presidents in the history of all Presidents throughout the entire Universe. Thankfully for Team Obama Quinnipiac was up to the challenge finding an electorate right out of Ed Rendell’s party machine making it seem like Pennsylvania didn’t reject nearly every Democrat state-wide and turn over the House and Senate to Republicans. Romney leads by 1-point with Independents but is down 11 in this poll not worthy of blogging but I needed the exercise.