You have to laugh at the absurdity of polls like these as I broke down in the post below:
- 2008 was a best-in-a-generation advantage for Democrats
- Obama’s job approval is locked below 50%
- The unemployment rate has been above 8% for 3 years and it’s actually higher if you count the people so despondent they simply quit looking for a job
- There isn’t one economic indicator that is positive for President Obama and the economy always surveys as by far the #1 issue for voters (there is never even a close 2nd)
- Every single survey shows Obama’s 2008 coalition is less enthusiastic in 2012 than in 2008 (especially Hispanics and the youth vote)
At the same time the GOP ground game has improved over its 2008 performance by at least 10-fold (that’s no exaggeration).
And yet polls like the latest from the Washington Post get published with a Gomer from the Andy Griffith Show feel of “well Goll-ly look how many Democrats there are, Obama must sure be popular.” It is professionally incompetent and completely partisan advocacy to survey states or the nation this way but there isn’t a reader out there who doesn’t already know the press is in the bag for the Obama re-election team. The partisan breakdown of the poll was D +11 for adults, D +8 for registered voters and D +7 for likely voters. In 2008 Obama enjoyed an advantage of D +8 in Ohio (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30). In 2004 this was a Republican advantage of R +5 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25). Not the number cruncher @numbersmuncher broke down the Ohio returns and found that the party ID in Ohio was actually D +5 on election day, making this sampling even worse. Romney leads by 1% among Independents but the Washington Post finds Team Obama in full hopey-changey frenzy and by sampling 7% more Democrats than Republicans comes out with a result that Obama leads in Ohio by 8-points, 52 to 44: