Note: thanks to commenter MikeN, in my haste I misread one of the questions. They were surveying vote intensity between the the two parties not the voter split of how many Democrats are voting for Obama and how many Republicans are voting for Romney. It still means Independents probably favor Romney but we still don’t know the breakdown. Sorry for the confusion and thanks to the commenter.
[Begin original post]And we’re supposed to call this poll credible but Susquehanna’s is not? Come on.
The earlier Susquehanna poll showing Obama only ahead by 2-points generated a bit of a furor leading the Susquehanna Polling people to explain in great detail their methodology in the poll. Basically by not sampling absurd turnout levels beyond the once-in-a-generation peak Obama achieved in 2008 Susquehanna arrived at a poll showing the race deeply competitive. Mercyhurst Center for Applied Politics (MCAP) had no such qualms in their poll and ran will full gusto into the arms of the Obama re-election team sampling the Pennsylvania electorate with a self identification over-sampling of Democrats by 10% (D +10 in Question 36). The party ID breakdown was Dem 52, Rep 42, Ind 4 versus D +7 in 2008 Dem 44, Rep 37, Ind 18 and D +2 in 2004 Dem 41, Rep 39, Ind 20. So we have dramatically more Democrats and a disappearing Independent electorate for what is probably the fastest growing segment of the three. In a poll with a dramatic Democrat turnout advantage President Obama leads Mitt Romney 48 to 40 with 6 Undecided.
- Both candidates lock down their base with 91% of the Democrat/Republican vote
- In a poll with 52% self-identified Democrats Obama still can’t crack 50%
This would mean Barack Obama got almost zero votes from Independents (91% of 52 = 47.3; Obama’s vote total was 48)
- Of the Independents it appears 40% lean Republican and 37% lean Democrat (Q39)
- No mention of how Independents voted although the math says they voted 82 to 18 for Romney
- Voters favor Pennsylvania’s Voter ID law 57 to 33