I hammer CNN/ORC International when they run clearly absurd national polls, but this is a reasonable sample. The party ID was D +8 which for Michigan is fair. The 2008 party ID was D +12, Dem 41, Rep 29, Ind 29 and in 2004 it was D +5, Dem 39, Rep 34, Ind 27. The state has had a serious exodus over the last decade thanks to Jennifer Ganholm’s “Michigan Miracle” turnaround which led residents to pack-up, turnaround and leave the state but it is still a Democrat state. Romney may be able to flip a few more his way than this poll’s party ID breakdown but based on recent history, it’s hard to argue for a serious re-weighting. Full marks for a credible balance. The Independents break down exactly even but in a Democrat heavy state that’s not enough for Republicans. Romney needs to hit the state and find some Reagan Democrats to flip if he is going to compete in the Great Lakes State. Not much more I can say about it except… Go Irish! Beat Wolverines!
It’s the state where Mitt Romney was born and where his father served as governor, but a new poll indicates President Barack Obama is leading the Republican nominee in the race for Michigan’s 16 electoral votes. According to a CNN/ORC International survey (PDF) released Wednesday, 52% of likely voters in Michigan say if the presidential election were held today, they’d vote for the president, with 44% saying they’d cast a ballot for Romney. The poll is the second in a week to indicate Obama with a lead. The president was up 47%-37% over Romney in an EPIC/MRA poll released last week. But polls conducted earlier this summer indicated a closer contest.