This blog focuses on 10 swing states that will decide this year’s election. But Paul Begala goes to an even more micro-level and estimates 916,643 swing voters spread across six states will decide the election:
Democratic strategist Paul Begala surmises in a Newsweek column that 916,643 in six swing states will be the decisive factor in the 2012 elections. Begala, best known for helping win the White House for Bill Clinton in 1992, takes an educated guess that it’ll come down to 4% of the voters in the swing states of Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado. “That’s it. The American president will be selected by fewer than half the number of people who paid to get into a Houston Astros home game last year,” Begala writes.
If Romney gets his act together and makes his case to the public, the election won’t be that close. But even if he doesn’t, all of Obama’s mud slinging hasn’t moved the polls either so Begala may just be right.