Battleground Watch

Below we talk about how Obama’s immigration executive order was designed to improve the enthusiasm gap among Hispanics — they already support him overwhelmingly.  While those poll numbers demonstrate that Obama’s move has this far failed to energize Hispanics, an even more concerning development was revealed in today’s Quinnipiac Swing State polls:

President Obama’s decision to exempt young illegal immigrants from deportation may not be the electoral boon it’s cracked up to be. And in fact, it appears to be turning off more voters than it mobilizes in three key states, according to new polling from Quinnipiac University.

Who are you more likely to support following Obama’s Immigration Executive Order?

While most voters still like the policy and Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney in all three states, the opposition to the move appears to be significantly more motivated by it — particularly in the two Midwestern states. In both Ohio and Pennsylvania, more than twice as many respondents say the decision makes them less likely to support the president (27 percent in both) as say it makes them more likely to back him (12 percent in Pennsylvania, 11 percent in Ohio). In Florida, the split is less pronounced, with 22 percent saying the move makes them less likely to support Obama and 17 percent saying it makes them more likely to support him.

Still, though, the opposition wins the day, even in a heavily Latino state (though we should note that Florida’s Latinos — many of them Cuban-Americans — tend to be more conservative than in other states). What’s most remarkable about the results is that, in all three states, a majority supports Obama’s immigration policy by a significant margin: by 25 points in Florida, 14 points in Ohio and 10 points in Pennsylvania. So how can a popular policy be a political loser? Put simply, voters who care about the issue most tend to disagree with Obama’s policy.

Whoops!