This is a state we have featured before: Why Obama Will Win Pennsylvania, but my how things have changed. At the time Scott Rasmussen polled Pennsylvania as Obama up only +6, but the Left always dismisses him even when he calls Presidential elections (2008, 2004, etc.) more accurate than any pollster. Left leaning media outlets happily and prematurely moved Pennsylvania out of the toss-up status (even though we disagreed). But since that time former Democrat Governor Ed Rendell stated that Pennsylvania was in play, Quinnipiac weighed in with a poll saying Obama +6 (the same as Rasmussen) and the Romney campaign decided to turn the state into a dog fight. Now the Left is grudgingly coming to the same conclusion as Democrat William Galston writes in The New Republic:
The past month has seen the momentum of the 2012 presidential election shift significantly. The national race is now in a virtual dead heat, and most key swing states are within the margin of error. And most important, it appears that Mitt Romney has expanded the playing field to include some states previously thought to be securely in President Obama’s column—including, in my view, Pennsylvania.
Galston then looks at polling results from Battleground states since June as well as the national average to conclude with so many states in play, the fact that Pennsylvania is in play makes it a Battleground state. Now I take great issue with his Nevada numbers since credible polling has it no higher than +2 for Obama and only the hugely biased PPP has it at +6, but nonetheless the story remains the same– the electoral map is widening and Obama is on his heels.
|Obama||Romney||Obama 2012 Margin||Obama 2008 Margin|
Wisconsin is an unexpected addition to the list. It’s hard, though, to think of a state whose politics are more volatile this year. The most recent presidential surveys may reflect the extraordinary Republican mobilization that kept Scott Walker in the governor’s mansion, and these passions may cool. Or they may not. In my view, which I first ventured last month, it makes sense to consider adding Pennsylvania to the list, even though Obama carried it by more than 10 points in 2008. The latest Quinnipiac survey gives the president a 6-point edge (46-40), but his support remains well below 50 percent, as it has in most previous surveys for the past six months. Obama’s job approval among Pennsylvanians stands at only 46, versus 49 percent who disapprove of his performance as president. Forty-eight percent think he deserves to be reelected, while 47 percent do not. And 56 percent are dissatisfied with the way things are going in their state, versus 43 percent who are satisfied.
At this point, the odds still favor an Obama victory in Pennsylvania this November. But the evidence suggests that Romney has a shot in the state—and Romney himself seems to think so. It’s no accident that the Romney bus tour goes through Pennsylvania. Keystone State voters can expect to see a lot more of him this summer, and their final verdict could be a game-changer.