Consistent with the most recent poll from highly respected Michigan polling firm EPIC-MRA where Romney led by +1, Democrat polling firm Foster McCollum White & Associates released a poll with Obama leading by +1 percentage point in Michigan.
Obama leads 47-45 (but really only 1.41 percentage points separate the candidates) with 8% Undecided/Other. From page 10 in the release (that you have to register for and download):
State – Wide Aggregate Results–1783 Respondents MOE +/- 2.32%Question 1:The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you more likely to vote for in the election?
- (Barack Obama): 46.89%
- (Mitt Romney): 45.48%
- Another candidate): 3.56%
- (Undecided): 4.07%
Party ID in the poll was D: 41, R: 32, I: 26 or D+11; This is a bit of oversampling of Democrats. The party breakdown in 2004 was D+5 and in 2008 D+12. No one expects a similar Democrat turnout like 2008 and most (including the Obama campaign) are expecting something closer to 2004.