The 2012 Presidential Election will be decided by a more narrow slice of states than any election in recent memory. In the spring of 2000, George W. Bush and Al Gore fought an air war in close to 20 states. In early 2004, there were the “Swing Seventeen.” And in 2008, the Obama campaign included 18 states in its June advertising offensive. Today, there are arguably only 10 Battleground state.
Because of this, rather than get bogged down and distracted by national polls which can skew results by sampling states whose outcome is certain (like Mississippi or Maryland) I intend to make this blog all about the only states that matter for the 2012 Presidential Election. For my purposes. I am designating the following states Battlegrounds:
I have seen arguments for New Mexico (with its popular GOP governor) and North Carolina (which Obama won in 2008) as being Battleground states, but I believe both states are fools errands absent a blow-out result either way which still leaves the aforementioned Battleground states as the ones to watch. To be clear, my own electoral map gives New Mexico to the Democrats and North Carolina to the Republicans. Other than that, I expect the Battleground states to remain unchanged well into the summer with states like Michigan trending to the GOP and Colorado trending to the Democrats. But until consistent polling tells me otherwise, they are Battlegrounds in my blog!